Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Best in months. Net buying strong at +US$800mm a day. </li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, Non-bank FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Tech-y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY was sold. SOEs stand out on the sell side. Again. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Best in months. Net buying strong at +US$800mm a day. 
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, Non-bank FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Tech-y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY was sold. SOEs stand out on the sell side. Again. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.2% as of Jul 25th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples, real estate, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Jiangxi Copper, Dongfang Electric, China Life, China Energy Engineering, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, China Railway Construction.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.2% as of Jul 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by materials, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples, real estate, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Jiangxi Copper, Dongfang Electric, China Life, China Energy Engineering, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, China Railway Construction.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 25th): Jiangxi Copper, Dongfang Electric, China Life

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 25th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Life, China Mobile, CCB, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, China Energy Engineering, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, ABC, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 25th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Life, China Mobile, CCB, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, China Energy Engineering, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, ABC, Tencent.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 25th): China Life, China Mobile, CCB, Xiaomi, Kuaishou

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a>'s recent rally following the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project announcement appears overdone, as it now trades more than 3SD above average. </li>
<li>We estimate that, even with generous assumptions, the project will add 11.5% of revenue of its annual revenue. This seems unmatched with the 52.7% share price jump.</li>
<li>1Q25 has performed well and deserves a re-rating, but the current extent is excessive. Fair value for the next three years is HK$18-22.8, at best.</li>
</ul>



Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)'s recent rally following the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project announcement appears overdone, as it now trades more than 3SD above average. 
We estimate that, even with generous assumptions, the project will add 11.5% of revenue of its annual revenue. This seems unmatched with the 52.7% share price jump.
1Q25 has performed well and deserves a re-rating, but the current extent is excessive. Fair value for the next three years is HK$18-22.8, at best.


Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Is There Any Room Left After the Rally?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortior-technology-shenzhen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44259:1" rel="noopener">Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) (688279 CH)</a>, a BLDC motor IC design company, raised around US$330m in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Fortior Tech is an IC design company dedicated to the design and R&amp;D of BLDC motor control ICs.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Fortior Technology (Shenzhen) (688279 CH), a BLDC motor IC design company, raised around US$330m in its H-share listing.
Fortior Tech is an IC design company dedicated to the design and R&amp;D of BLDC motor control ICs.
In our previous note, we have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Fortior Tech A/H Trading - Sluggish Demand

China

Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited manufactures and sells hydro and steam power generators and AC/DC electric motors. The Company also provides repair, upgrade, maintenance, and other services for the products.

Price Gauge
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Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials

The top week for SOUTHBOUND trading value in many months, and a decent week on a net basis. FINANCIALS remain very well bid but in terms of impact...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 25th): Jiangxi Copper, Dongfang Electric, China Life

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Jiangxi Copper, Dongfang Electric, China Life, China Energy...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 25th): China Life, China Mobile, CCB, Xiaomi, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for China Life, China Mobile, CCB, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM