European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.</li>
<li>At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.</li>
<li>Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.</li>
</ul>


Deliveroo shareholders approved DoorDash’s 180p cash offer; only court sanction and procedural steps remain. Settlement could occur as early as 30 July 2025.
At 175.9p, the 2.33% gross spread implies a ~36.3% annualised return assuming 30-day closing.
Amazon counterbid now highly improbable under Rule 2.8; DoorDash bid remains dominant with 97% scenario weighting.


High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

<ul>
<li>Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.</li>
<li>While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.</li>
<li>Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. <strong>Long ROO LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Amazon is positioned to outbid DoorDash with a 200–222p/share offer, implying a valuation based on 12.8–14.0x EV/NTM EBITDA, aligning with trade buyer precedent multiples.
While Amazon’s strategic fit is stronger, regulatory scrutiny from the UK CMA presents material timing and execution risks, likely pushing deal closure into Q1–Q2 2026.
Deliveroo shareholders face a trade-off: faster liquidity at 180p via DoorDash, or 10–23% upside with Amazon at the cost of longer timelines and political uncertainty. Long ROO LN.


Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In Aug 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.</li>
<li>Leading to a selldown by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> in the same month, followed by another selldown in Oct 2023. Softbank will once again be released from its lockup soon.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


In Aug 2022, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.
Leading to a selldown by Softbank Group (9984 JP) in the same month, followed by another selldown in Oct 2023. Softbank will once again be released from its lockup soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


Zomato Lock-Up - Last of the Softbank Selldown

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s 3Q2023 results demonstrate a high degree of success in achieving a delicate balance between growth and profitability, with significant progress across all verticals, and a  broadening of product offerings.</li>
<li>The company turned adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the first time in 3Q2023, through lower incentives, cost efficiencies, and lower regional corporate costs, with further progress towards FCF breakeven in 4Q2023.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> remains confident about the outlook with guidance revised upwards, with the company looking at some potentially interesting M&amp;A, which should be earnings accretive and beneficial to the ecosystem. </li>
</ul>



Grab's 3Q2023 results demonstrate a high degree of success in achieving a delicate balance between growth and profitability, with significant progress across all verticals, and a  broadening of product offerings.
The company turned adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the first time in 3Q2023, through lower incentives, cost efficiencies, and lower regional corporate costs, with further progress towards FCF breakeven in 4Q2023.

Grab remains confident about the outlook with guidance revised upwards, with the company looking at some potentially interesting M&amp;A, which should be earnings accretive and beneficial to the ecosystem. 


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - Steering and Batching Towards Profitability

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>DoorDash, Inc. reported continued momentum in its first quarter of 2026, emphasizing advances in product development, partnership expansion, and technology infrastructure improvements across its platform and geographic markets.</li><li>The company is investing heavily—several hundred million dollars—toward replatforming its global tech stack, aimed at enhancing feature velocity, quality, and innovation.</li><li>Early benefits from this effort are being realized, allowing more streamlined product feature deployments across DoorDash’s brands, such as DoorDash, Wolt, and Deliveroo, which operate in diverse urban geographies with distinct logistics needs.</li></ul>

DoorDash, Inc. reported continued momentum in its first quarter of 2026, emphasizing advances in product development, partnership expansion, and technology infrastructure improvements across its platform and geographic markets.The company is investing heavily—several hundred million dollars—toward replatforming its global tech stack, aimed at enhancing feature velocity, quality, and innovation.Early benefits from this effort are being realized, allowing more streamlined product feature deployments across DoorDash’s brands, such as DoorDash, Wolt, and Deliveroo, which operate in diverse urban geographies with distinct logistics needs.

DoorDash Is Not Just A Food Delivery Platform Anymore — Here’s Why!

United States

DoorDash, Inc. provides restaurant food delivery services. The Company develops technology to connect customers with merchants through an on-demand food delivery application. DoorDash serves customers in the United States.

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DoorDash (DASH US)

High-Conviction Arbitrage: 36% IRR Possible with 30 July Settlement, Court Approval Secured

Deliveroo shareholders backed DoorDash’s 180p offer. With court sanction due late July, settlement could close by 30 July, offering a ~36% IRR.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Prime Delivery: Amazon’s Route to Outbid DoorDash for Deliveroo

Amazon could counter DoorDash’s bid for Deliveroo with a 200–222p offer. Strategic upside is clear, but CMA scrutiny means higher regulatory risk...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zomato Lock-Up - Last of the Softbank Selldown

In Aug 2022, Zomato completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. This has led to two earlier...

Sumeet Singh

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - Steering and Batching Towards Profitability

Grab remains confident on the outlook with guidance revised upwards, with the company looking at some potentially interesting M&A, which should be...

Angus Mackintosh

DoorDash Is Not Just A Food Delivery Platform Anymore — Here’s Why!

DoorDash, Inc. reported continued momentum in its first quarter of 2026, emphasizing advances in product development, partnership expansion, and...

Baptista Research

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