IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a> announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13613:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)</a> irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) at JPY1,537 per share, representing a 15.3% discount to the last close price.
The offer resulted from an auction process. The offer is light in comparison to peer multiples and is below the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation.
While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) irrevocable has a competing proposal clause, it is unlikely that a bidding war will transpire. The low required tendering rate suggests a done deal. 


Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>~9 months ago as Japan reeled from Trump's Tariff Tantrum, Toyota Group announced a potential takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In June, we got a process+price. Non-transparent. Opportunistic. Unfair. </li>
<li>They valued the transaction in one way, then announced a transaction structure which immediately changes the entire asset base of the company, and creates huge excess value for the buyers.</li>
<li>Process is bad. Analysis bad. The Special Committee and Board decisions bad. Sub-1x BVPS. Transaction structure immediately offers an additional 10+% to BVPS in cash to the buyers. It's offensive.</li>
</ul>


~9 months ago as Japan reeled from Trump's Tariff Tantrum, Toyota Group announced a potential takeover of Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, we got a process+price. Non-transparent. Opportunistic. Unfair. 
They valued the transaction in one way, then announced a transaction structure which immediately changes the entire asset base of the company, and creates huge excess value for the buyers.
Process is bad. Analysis bad. The Special Committee and Board decisions bad. Sub-1x BVPS. Transaction structure immediately offers an additional 10+% to BVPS in cash to the buyers. It's offensive.


[Japan M&A] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Inds (6201) Part I; Offensive Process, Light Deal, Bun Fight?

<ul>
<li>Elliott has filed a substantial shareholder notice reporting a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> ownership of 16.3 million or 5.01% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott is committed to securing a bump.</li>
<li>A potential bump could reach JPY19,000. While this would require an additional US$4 billion, financing should not be an issue as the book value (understated) is close to JPY18,000. </li>
</ul>


Elliott has filed a substantial shareholder notice reporting a Toyota Industries (6201 JP) ownership of 16.3 million or 5.01% of outstanding shares.
The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott is committed to securing a bump.
A potential bump could reach JPY19,000. While this would require an additional US$4 billion, financing should not be an issue as the book value (understated) is close to JPY18,000. 


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based compact construction equipment company. </li>
<li>Doosan Bobcat is apparently discussing a plan to acquire approximately 60% of Wacker Neuson. There are also discussions to secure the remaining shares of the company through a tender offer. </li>
<li>Wacker Neuson has a market cap of 1.46 billion EUR (2.5 trillion won) and the acquisition value for a 100% stake is expected to be more than 5 trillion won.</li>
</ul>


According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based compact construction equipment company. 
Doosan Bobcat is apparently discussing a plan to acquire approximately 60% of Wacker Neuson. There are also discussions to secure the remaining shares of the company through a tender offer. 
Wacker Neuson has a market cap of 1.46 billion EUR (2.5 trillion won) and the acquisition value for a 100% stake is expected to be more than 5 trillion won.


Doosan Bobcat: To Acquire the Controlling Stake & Conduct Tender Offer of Wacker Neuson?

<ul>
<li>In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>. In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.  </li>
<li>The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO's Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.</li>
<li>The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount. </li>
</ul>


In April there was a story suggesting Toyota Group would buy out Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In June, they announced a deal. It was a BAD DEAL.  
The price was low, but it was BAD governance because it was the WRONG DEAL. TICO's Board declared a valuation fair for a deal not announced, ignoring the ACTUAL DEAL.
The valuation? Assumed no changes to the business. Actual deal? Sell 90+% of net assets driving 50% of net income, buy back 24+% of shares at discount. 


[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) - Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

South Korea

Bobcat Company specializes in design, manufacture, marketing and distribution of compact equipment for construction, rental, landscaping, agriculture, grounds maintenance, government, utility, industry and mining.

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Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS)

Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): JIP’s Takeunder Offer

The precondition is satisfied, and the tender offer commences at an unchanged JPY1,537 price. The tender closes on 18 Feb, with payment from 26...

Arun George

[Japan M&A] Toyota RE Deal for Toyota Inds (6201) Part I; Offensive Process, Light Deal, Bun Fight?

I assume shareholders have been meeting Toyota Inds and Group since June. They had no effect. Deal process is still offensive. Awful governance....

Travis Lundy

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Elliott Ramps up the Pressure

The disclosure is likely a tactic to pressure Toyota Fudosan (offeror) and also a useful signalling tactic to other minorities that Elliott has...

Arun George

Doosan Bobcat: To Acquire the Controlling Stake & Conduct Tender Offer of Wacker Neuson?

According to numerous local media, Doosan Bobcat is pursuing the acquisition of a controlling stake in Wacker Neuson Se (WAC GR), a German based...

Douglas Kim

[Japan M&A] Toyota Inds (6201) - Process ALWAYS Bad, Price Bad To Worse; Easily Worth ¥20k+

The TICO buyout proposed by Toyota Fudosan in June was an elegant and greedy structure for the buyer, but inappropriate for TICO shareholders. It...

Travis Lundy

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