New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The March 2026 quarter delivered a continuation of mixed economic signals, although updates from NZ's listed auto retailers remained constructive.</li><li>Against this backdrop, Turners Automotive (TRA) continued to exhibit operational resilience, as reflected in management's upgraded FY26 guidance announced at the company's 2026 Investor Day.</li><li>We lift TRA's target price by +3% to NZ$8.65, driven by a recovery in peer multiples and with an expected 12-month total return of +3%, retain our UNDERPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

The March 2026 quarter delivered a continuation of mixed economic signals, although updates from NZ's listed auto retailers remained constructive.Against this backdrop, Turners Automotive (TRA) continued to exhibit operational resilience, as reflected in management's upgraded FY26 guidance announced at the company's 2026 Investor Day.We lift TRA's target price by +3% to NZ$8.65, driven by a recovery in peer multiples and with an expected 12-month total return of +3%, retain our UNDERPERFORM rating.

Forsyth Barr Vehicle Digest Edition 12—The Wheels Are Turning

<ul><li>Management introduced a medium-term NPBT target of ~NZ$100m for FY31 (~+50% organic growth on FY26).</li><li>TRA’s next five-year strategy centres on both branch expansion and leveraging its vertically integrated ecosystem, where Auto Retail, Finance, Insurance, and Servicing collectively drive network effects, cross-sell, and share gains.</li><li>We modestly upgrade medium-term earnings, with our FY31 PBT forecast up +5%, reflecting confidence in execution and improved visibility on key drivers.</li></ul>

Management introduced a medium-term NPBT target of ~NZ$100m for FY31 (~+50% organic growth on FY26).TRA’s next five-year strategy centres on both branch expansion and leveraging its vertically integrated ecosystem, where Auto Retail, Finance, Insurance, and Servicing collectively drive network effects, cross-sell, and share gains.We modestly upgrade medium-term earnings, with our FY31 PBT forecast up +5%, reflecting confidence in execution and improved visibility on key drivers.

Turners Automotive Group Ltd Investor Day 2026—Targets Shift a Gear Higher

<ul><li>Turners Automotive (TRA) is hosting its 2026 investor day today (9:45am to 1:30pm), and within the pre-released 94-page presentation (attached) management introduced a new FY31 NPBT target of ~NZ$100m (~NZ$95m organically and NZ$5m from ‘inorganic growth’).</li><li>Key growth drivers include Auto Retail network expansion (+15 new branches targeted by FY31 vs 32 today), and ~50% loan book growth in Finance without adding any additional capital.</li><li>All in all a solid update, just above expectations, and a continuation of its steady growth path confirmed.</li></ul>

Turners Automotive (TRA) is hosting its 2026 investor day today (9:45am to 1:30pm), and within the pre-released 94-page presentation (attached) management introduced a new FY31 NPBT target of ~NZ$100m (~NZ$95m organically and NZ$5m from ‘inorganic growth’).Key growth drivers include Auto Retail network expansion (+15 new branches targeted by FY31 vs 32 today), and ~50% loan book growth in Finance without adding any additional capital.All in all a solid update, just above expectations, and a continuation of its steady growth path confirmed.

Turners (TRA) - 2026 Investor Day First Take

<ul><li>Turners Automotive (TRA) upgraded FY26 guidance, with momentum across Auto Retail, Finance, and Insurance exceeding expectations despite a challenging macro backdrop.</li><li>Management now expects FY26 NPBT (before a goodwill write-down) of ~NZ$63m, ahead of prior guidance for ~NZ$60m, driven by strong summer trading, improved vehicle margins, and record lending activity.</li><li>TRA trades on 15.4x 12-month forward consensus PE (versus ~12x a year ago) and at a record ~75% premium (ex-COVID) to Australian auto peers.</li></ul>

Turners Automotive (TRA) upgraded FY26 guidance, with momentum across Auto Retail, Finance, and Insurance exceeding expectations despite a challenging macro backdrop.Management now expects FY26 NPBT (before a goodwill write-down) of ~NZ$63m, ahead of prior guidance for ~NZ$60m, driven by strong summer trading, improved vehicle margins, and record lending activity.TRA trades on 15.4x 12-month forward consensus PE (versus ~12x a year ago) and at a record ~75% premium (ex-COVID) to Australian auto peers.

Turners Automotive Group Ltd More Torque Under The Hood

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating on Turners Automotive (TRA) from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM.</li><li>TRA has emerged from a prolonged New Zealand economic downturn with its operating model increasingly well understood by the market, alongside early signs of cyclical improvement.</li><li>While we believe a re-rating was justified and continue to view TRA as a high-quality business with disciplined execution, diversified earnings streams, and clear growth drivers, we consider that much of TRA's historical multiple mis-pricing has now been corrected.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating on Turners Automotive (TRA) from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM.TRA has emerged from a prolonged New Zealand economic downturn with its operating model increasingly well understood by the market, alongside early signs of cyclical improvement.While we believe a re-rating was justified and continue to view TRA as a high-quality business with disciplined execution, diversified earnings streams, and clear growth drivers, we consider that much of TRA's historical multiple mis-pricing has now been corrected.

Turners Automotive Group Ltd Time For A Pitstop

New Zealand

Turners Limited specialized personal insurance. The Company provides motor vehicle and personal financial services, and hire purchase services and investment advisory services to businesses.  Dorchester also provides immigration consultancy services assisting business migrants and families.

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Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)

Forsyth Barr Vehicle Digest Edition 12—The Wheels Are Turning

The March 2026 quarter delivered a continuation of mixed economic signals, although updates from NZ's listed auto retailers remained...

Forsyth Barr

Turners Automotive Group Ltd Investor Day 2026—Targets Shift a Gear Higher

Management introduced a medium-term NPBT target of ~NZ$100m for FY31 (~+50% organic growth on FY26). TRA’s next five-year strategy centres on both...

Forsyth Barr

Turners (TRA) - 2026 Investor Day First Take

Turners Automotive (TRA) is hosting its 2026 investor day today (9:45am to 1:30pm), and within the pre-released 94-page presentation (attached)...

Forsyth Barr

Turners Automotive Group Ltd More Torque Under The Hood

Turners Automotive (TRA) upgraded FY26 guidance, with momentum across Auto Retail, Finance, and Insurance exceeding expectations despite a...

Forsyth Barr

Turners Automotive Group Ltd Time For A Pitstop

TRA has emerged from a prolonged New Zealand economic downturn with its operating model increasingly well understood by the market, alongside early...

Forsyth Barr

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