Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Vcanbio Cell & Gene Engineering / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.</li>
<li>We expect up to four ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.</li>
</ul>


CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
We expect up to four ADDs and four DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.


Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun 25: 1-5x ADV to Trade; Sector-Neutral Rebal Trade Idea Inside

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao's performance turnaround in 2024.</li>
<li>After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.</li>
<li>Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.</li>
</ul>


Due to centralized procurement and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, negative YoY revenue growth in 2023 seems to be inevitable. We are not optimistic about Weigao's performance turnaround in 2024.
After new policy strictly prohibiting borrowing to purchase medical equipment in public hospitals was released, the investment logic of medical device sector changes, which would negatively affect Weigao’s outlook.
Weigao feels like “living off its past gains”.Current valuation is reasonable not undervalued. There’s no need to rush to long this stock when downward trend in share price hasn’t reversed.


Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Results Could Be Ugly

Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech C / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. </li>
<li>Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.</li>
<li>Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.</li>
</ul>


The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables for intraocular lens (IOL) and medical consumables related to sports medicine released results, with lower than expected price reductions. 
Despite anti-corruption campaign, the business/profit model validation process of Chinese Biotech has not slowed down. There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn losses into profits in 2024-2025.
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech (688298 CH) once brought considerable returns to investors, but now the beautiful story is over.After deletion from CSI Medical Service Index, share price could remain weak.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables such as intraocular lens (IOL) and sports medicine medical consumables is about to begin. We listed the companies that could be affected.</li>
<li>The instability of policies seems to be a consensus among investors regarding China healthcare. However, if truly understand the logic behind policy changes and industry shifts, investors will maintain optimism.</li>
<li>We analyzed the key points of Biokin. Its valuation is ridiculously high considering the current pipeline situation and commercialization outlook. We think the bubble will eventually burst (e.g. 50% downside).</li>
</ul>


The national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables such as intraocular lens (IOL) and sports medicine medical consumables is about to begin. We listed the companies that could be affected.
The instability of policies seems to be a consensus among investors regarding China healthcare. However, if truly understand the logic behind policy changes and industry shifts, investors will maintain optimism.
We analyzed the key points of Biokin. Its valuation is ridiculously high considering the current pipeline situation and commercialization outlook. We think the bubble will eventually burst (e.g. 50% downside).


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - Medical Device VBP, Restore Optimism on Healthcare, Biokin Pharma

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Western Superconducting Techno / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI500 Index</a>, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.</li>
<li>With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.</li>
</ul>


Over 85% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.4% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 7.22bn.
With the market being stabilised through the ETF route, the index constituents have outperformed the non-index constituents over the last 6-7 weeks. That could reverse over the near term.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

China

Double Medical Technology Inc. operates as an orthopedic devices manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells physical therapy equipment, orthopedic surgical instruments, injection puncture, and other products. Double Medical Technology markets its products throughout China.

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Double Medical Technology (002901 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Jun 25: 1-5x ADV to Trade; Sector-Neutral Rebal Trade Idea Inside

We estimate the CSI Medical June 2025 index rebalance to trigger flows of US$178mn one-way. Most of the expected ADDs/DELs have 1x-5x ADV to trade.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Co (1066.HK) - 2023 Full-Year Results Could Be Ugly

Due to VBP and anti-corruption campaign in 23H2, Weigao's 2023 results could be disappointing. Whether the performance will recover in 2024 is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1) - Medical Device VBP, Biotech to Breakeven Soon, Orient Gene Biotech

VBP result for intraocular lens/sports medicine consumables is better than expected.There’s a chance to see Chinese Biotech turn loss into profits...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - Medical Device VBP, Restore Optimism on Healthcare, Biokin Pharma

National VBP of intraocular lens/sports medicine medical consumables begins.Investors will maintain optimism when understand the logic behind...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: ETF Inflows Lead to Performance Skew

There should be 50 changes in Dec with a big sector skew. Turnover is ~10% and 31 stocks will have 1x ADV to trade. Huge ETF inflows have led to...

Brian Freitas

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