Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 8 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.1% at the December rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.75bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the CSI500 Index over the last six weeks. There could be more outperformance till nearer the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. </li>
<li>If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.</li>
<li>Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.</li>
</ul>


Last week, centralized procurement results of orthopedic spinal consumables were released, with an average price reduction of 84%. We analyzed the impact on related companies. 
If medical insurance reimbursement standards of Hunan Provincial are followed, there will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots for many hospitals, mainly to meet scientific research needs instead.
Under the appearance of the popularity of CGT CDMO, there are some hidden worries. Investors are recommended to be rational due to the overcapacity issue in the future.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Last week, the results of the 5th national volume-based purchase (VBP) were released.</li>
<li>A new announcement on the centralized procurement of artificial joints was released, and the selection rules were relatively mild.</li>
<li>Recently, China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) released the "2020 Annual Drug Evaluation Report". 
</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, Fosun Kite and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)</a>. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 3.19%, while CSI 300 increased 2.69% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
Last week, the results of the 5th national volume-based purchase (VBP) were released.
A new announcement on the centralized procurement of artificial joints was released, and the selection rules were relatively mild.
Recently, China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) released the "2020 Annual Drug Evaluation Report". 

Company news:News about the updated progress on drugs of BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK), CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), Fosun Kite and Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK). Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 3.19%, while CSI 300 increased 2.69% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>Last week, the bidding for the 4th volume-based purchase (VBP) was officially opened.</li>
<li>China's CTLA-4 antibody drug industry is in the early stage, but is expected to expand rapidly from 2021. </li>
<li>China's orthopedic implant device market is in a stage of rapid growth in recent years. However, the future large price reduction if included in the volume-based purchase should also be take into consideration.</li>
</ul>2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs, COVID-19 vaccine, strategic collaboration and acquisition from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a>.3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 3.75%, while CSI 300 increased 2.46% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

1. Industry viewpoints:
Last week, the bidding for the 4th volume-based purchase (VBP) was officially opened.
China's CTLA-4 antibody drug industry is in the early stage, but is expected to expand rapidly from 2021. 
China's orthopedic implant device market is in a stage of rapid growth in recent years. However, the future large price reduction if included in the volume-based purchase should also be take into consideration.
2. Company news:News about the progress of new drugs, COVID-19 vaccine, strategic collaboration and acquisition from Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Antengene (6996 HK), CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK) and China Medical System (867 HK).3. Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share increased 3.75%, while CSI 300 increased 2.46% over the same period of time.4. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

China

Double Medical Technology Inc. operates as an orthopedic devices manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells physical therapy equipment, orthopedic surgical instruments, injection puncture, and other products. Double Medical Technology markets its products throughout China.

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Double Medical Technology (002901 CH)

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Potential Deletes

We see 50 changes a side for the CSI500 in Dec. The Industrials sector could take a lot of index spots from Materials as one-way turnover exceeds...

Brian Freitas

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.30) - Orthopedics VBP, CGT CDMO, Surgical Robots, Bottom of HKEX

Orthopedics VBP result was released,we analyzed the impact on companies; There will be few real clinical needs for surgical robots; There're hidden...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.25)

This article analyzed the results of 5th national volume-based purchase, the new announcement on the centralized procurement of artificial joints,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.5)

This article analyzed the results of the 4th volume-based purchase, the CTLA-4 antibody drug industry, the orthopedic implant device market, news...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Global Equities: Lower Highs Forming

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act...

Vermilion Research

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