Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

A 2.4-2.6% rebound in benchmark Brent and WTI crude prices Wednesday (February 14) in a week of mildly bearish short-term and long-term indicators from stocks and supply fundamentals supports our argument that oil remains in the grip of the frenzy dominating world's financial markets. Oil's bounce matched a smart recovery in stock markets across Europe and the US, and was extending in Asia Thursday as the region's equities took a lead from the West. The recent fears of inflation and its impact on economic growth aside, global demand projections for oil in 2018 remain strong. However, we might find crude caught in a tug-of- war between the mop-up of the global surplus underway due to the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts and fears of U.S. shale resurgence once the financial markets stabilise.

A 2.4-2.6% rebound in benchmark Brent and WTI crude prices Wednesday (February 14) in a week of mildly bearish short-term and long-term indicators from stocks and supply fundamentals supports our argument that oil remains in the grip of the frenzy dominating world's financial markets. Oil's bounce matched a smart recovery in stock markets across Europe and the US, and was extending in Asia Thursday as the region's equities took a lead from the West. The recent fears of inflation and its impact on economic growth aside, global demand projections for oil in 2018 remain strong. However, we might find crude caught in a tug-of- war between the mop-up of the global surplus underway due to the OPEC/non-OPEC cuts and fears of U.S. shale resurgence once the financial markets stabilise.

Oil Prices Get Some Love from Financial Markets on Valentine's Day

<ul><li>Crude was officially in correction mode at the end of Friday, February 9, following a week's rout led by mayhem in the global financial markets.</li><li>However, benchmark Brent as well as WTI futures remain firmly backwardated, a sign of a tightly balanced market.</li><li>The connection between inflation, economic headwinds, slowing economic growth and deceleration in global oil demand growth is too circuitous for the crude markets to have joined the dots. </li><li>A return to tracking fundamentals is a given, but that is unlikely to happen until the financial markets emerge from the latest turmoil.</li></ul>

Crude was officially in correction mode at the end of Friday, February 9, following a week's rout led by mayhem in the global financial markets.However, benchmark Brent as well as WTI futures remain firmly backwardated, a sign of a tightly balanced market.The connection between inflation, economic headwinds, slowing economic growth and deceleration in global oil demand growth is too circuitous for the crude markets to have joined the dots. A return to tracking fundamentals is a given, but that is unlikely to happen until the financial markets emerge from the latest turmoil.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Drawn into a Financial Vortex

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Introduction</h2>The recent pullback in stocks has felt brutal, a sense compounded by the exceptionally benign market environment that investors have become accustomed to over the past year or so. Even though the move may have felt brutal, as things currently stand, the downward correction is far from unchartered territory for a bull market. For those that believe that the bullish equity market trend remains intact, then the recent correction should represent a good buying opportunity. If only it…

IntroductionThe recent pullback in stocks has felt brutal, a sense compounded by the exceptionally benign market environment that investors have become accustomed to over the past year or so. Even though the move may have felt brutal, as things currently stand, the downward correction is far from unchartered territory for a bull market. For those that believe that the bullish equity market trend remains intact, then the recent correction should represent a good buying opportunity. If only it…

The Market Sentimentalist - No Pain, No Gain

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&amp;P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, Monday’s low is approaching its trendline which began with the lows of early 2016, also touching support the day before the presidential election of November 2016, and again in August 2017. A move below this area of support and the 200-day moving average could lead to further pressure and a potential return to the up-trend that began at the 2009 lows.  In this report we highlight key indicators to watch for signs of a near-term bottom, or for signs of further selling ahead.

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&amp;P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In the case of the S&amp;P 500, Monday’s low is approaching its trendline which began with the lows of early 2016, also touching support the day before the presidential election of November 2016, and again in August 2017. A move below this area of support and the 200-day moving average could lead to further pressure and a potential return to the up-trend that began at the 2009 lows.  In this report we highlight key indicators to watch for signs of a near-term bottom, or for signs of further selling ahead.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correcting Excess Optimism

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break level for the current elevated risk-on euphoric rise. Looking at Asia and EM macro cycles suggest there is a lot more upside potential into 2019 but this FX pivot point will be able to identify any tactical correction that is due in February (and then Q2).Oil, in recent years has demonstrated a tight correlation with US equities and risk with…

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Oil Prices Get Some Love from Financial Markets on Valentine's Day

A 2.4-2.6% rebound in benchmark Brent and WTI crude prices Wednesday (February 14) in a week of mildly bearish short-term and long-term indicators...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Drawn into a Financial Vortex

Crude was officially in correction mode at the end of Friday, February 9, following a week's rout led by mayhem in the global financial...

Vandana Hari

The Market Sentimentalist - No Pain, No Gain

IntroductionThe recent pullback in stocks has felt brutal, a sense compounded by the exceptionally benign market environment that investors have...

Amareos

U.S. Equity Strategy: Correcting Excess Optimism

The abrupt correction has led the DJIA and S&P 500 to return to levels that are still well above their respective 200-day moving averages. In...

Vermilion Research

Single Chart Inflection Point that Will Define Risk in 1H 2018

This insight outlines the tight oil/equity correlation within the context of the oil/USD link and outlines why Euro resistance is the make or break...

Thomas Schroeder