Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. </li>
<li>Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. </li>
<li>Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. 
Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. 
Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. 


US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.</li>
<li>We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.</li>
</ul>


In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.</li>
<li>The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.</li>
<li>Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.


S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

​US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...