Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...</li>
<li>...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support</li>
<li>Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish</li>
</ul>


Rising DXY, Treasury yields, and now energy commodities breaking out (Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP and WTI crude oil) suggests upside is likely to be capped, but...
...we still continue to see many other risk-on signals. As a result, we view this pullback as a buying opportunity, with all the major indexes testing/holding at support
Looking for support on the S&amp;P 500 at 5850, the 100-day MA (currently 5820), 5765-5770, and 5600-5670. As long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our outlook remains bullish


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.</li>
<li>The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.</li>
<li>Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024</li>
</ul>


The "January Effect," where investors repurchase stocks previously sold for tax-loss harvesting purposes at the end of December creates demand.
The Nifty 50 has experienced the Santa Claus rally in 9 out of the past 10 years, averaging a 1.76% return during this period.
Government shutdown risks in the US, rising treasury yields, and concerns about overvalued markets could dampen investor enthusiasm in 2024


Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump has pulled ahead in the swing states according to all 3 main poll trackers (RCP, fivethirtyeight and FT), with all now suggesting a Trump win in the electoral college. </li>
<li>WI, MI, NE and PA remain tight races, but the other 3 are in Trump's bag. With Trump ahead in PA and WI, Harris' only route out is reversing these. </li>
<li>History suggests that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). With prices now 25% higher than in Jan'21, swing voters blame incumbent Harris. </li>
</ul>


Trump has pulled ahead in the swing states according to all 3 main poll trackers (RCP, fivethirtyeight and FT), with all now suggesting a Trump win in the electoral college. 
WI, MI, NE and PA remain tight races, but the other 3 are in Trump's bag. With Trump ahead in PA and WI, Harris' only route out is reversing these. 
History suggests that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). With prices now 25% higher than in Jan'21, swing voters blame incumbent Harris. 


US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

<ul>
<li>Core PCE inflation was 2.7%YoY in Aug'24, too high to allow another 50bp cut in Nov'24, despite the fourth consecutive MoM (annualized) gain in core PCE of less than 2%.</li>
<li>The Jul'23-Feb'24 acceleration in base money (10.2%YoY in Feb'24) contributed crucially to the Jan-Apr'24 spike in core PCE. Slower base money, and steadily accelerating M2, made things better since May'24. </li>
<li>Mild, steady acceleration in M2 (i.e., small rate cuts every 6 weeks) should allow core inflation to keep receding. Faster rate cuts are possible once inflation is genuinely at 2%YoY. </li>
</ul>


Core PCE inflation was 2.7%YoY in Aug'24, too high to allow another 50bp cut in Nov'24, despite the fourth consecutive MoM (annualized) gain in core PCE of less than 2%.
The Jul'23-Feb'24 acceleration in base money (10.2%YoY in Feb'24) contributed crucially to the Jan-Apr'24 spike in core PCE. Slower base money, and steadily accelerating M2, made things better since May'24. 
Mild, steady acceleration in M2 (i.e., small rate cuts every 6 weeks) should allow core inflation to keep receding. Faster rate cuts are possible once inflation is genuinely at 2%YoY. 


US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.</li>
<li>We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.
We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. 
Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. 


US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

Core PCE inflation at 2.7%YoY in Aug'24 is too high for another 50bp cut. A Goldilocks economy needs Goldilocks monetary easing: not too hot, not...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences; Buy the Pullback

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Bull Flag Supports; Bullish Breadth Divergences (SPX and $IWM % above 20-dma); All Major Indexes Above Key Supports $DJI...

Vermilion Research

Is the Santa Claus Rally a Myth or Market Reality?

​Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

Nimish Maheshwari

US: Presidential Race Remains a Dead Heat but Perceived Inflation Likely a Tiebreaker

​History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

​Core PCE inflation at 2.7%YoY in Aug'24 is too high for another 50bp cut. A Goldilocks economy needs Goldilocks monetary easing: not too hot, not...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

​FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Investors repurchasing stocks in January after tax-loss harvesting, Nifty 50's Santa Claus rally, but 2024 faces risks of government shutdown,...

History shows that high inflation over a presidential term is fatal to incumbents (1952, 1976, 1980, 1992). Prices 25% above Jan'21 will harm...

Core PCE inflation at 2.7%YoY in Aug'24 is too high for another 50bp cut. A Goldilocks economy needs Goldilocks monetary easing: not too hot, not...

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...