Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>In Q3FY23, the Pharma sector is expected to benefit from positive attributes such as currency depreciation, fall in raw material prices, low crude prices, and correction in shipping prices which would aid in revenue growth and improvement in gross margins.</li><li>We expect the Pharma universe under our coverage to report healthy aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7.4%/9.5%/9.1% YoY. 8% depreciation in the Indian currency (Rs) may majorly contribute to the overall growth of 7.4% for the last quarter.</li><li>Low single-digit growth in the US market (due to intense competition) and low double-digit growth in the India business after Covid-19 business has now stabilised. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In Q3FY23, the Pharma sector is expected to benefit from positive attributes such as currency depreciation, fall in raw material prices, low crude prices, and correction in shipping prices which would aid in revenue growth and improvement in gross margins.We expect the Pharma universe under our coverage to report healthy aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7.4%/9.5%/9.1% YoY. 8% depreciation in the Indian currency (Rs) may majorly contribute to the overall growth of 7.4% for the last quarter.Low single-digit growth in the US market (due to intense competition) and low double-digit growth in the India business after Covid-19 business has now stabilised. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Petroleum, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Jindal Steel &amp; Power.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Petroleum, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Jindal Steel &amp; Power.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jul): ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Eternal, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Eternal, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank.


NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Jul): HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Eternal, Axis Bank

<ul><li>In Q2FY23, Pharma sector expected to be benefitted by factors like Currency depreciation, fall in raw material prices, low crude prices and correction in shipping prices could add to revenue growth and improvement in gross margins.</li><li>The Pharma universe under our coverage could report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 5.6%/-4.8%/-2.2% YoY.</li><li>Currency (Rs) has depreciated by 5.0% that could add major contribution to overall growth of 6.2% for last quarter.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In Q2FY23, Pharma sector expected to be benefitted by factors like Currency depreciation, fall in raw material prices, low crude prices and correction in shipping prices could add to revenue growth and improvement in gross margins.The Pharma universe under our coverage could report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 5.6%/-4.8%/-2.2% YoY.Currency (Rs) has depreciated by 5.0% that could add major contribution to overall growth of 6.2% for last quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and markets a wide array of pharmaceutical products and services. The company produces over 190 medications, 60 active pharmaceutical ingredients, diagnostic kits, critical care, and biotechnology products. It operates globally across multiple regions, offering generic drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), differentiated formulations, biosimilars, and proprietary products. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Hyderabad, Telangana, India.

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Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Pharma - Q3FY23 - Earnings Preview

Low single-digit growth in the US market (due to intense competition) and low double-digit growth in the India business after Covid-19 business has...

Axis Direct

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Jul): ICICI Bank, Vedanta, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN), Vedanta (VEDL IN), Mahindra & Mahindra (MM...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Jul): HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Eternal, Axis Bank

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in HDFC Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Eternal, Dr. Reddy's...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pharma Q2fy23 Preview

The Pharma universe under our coverage could report aggregate Revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 5.6%/-4.8%/-2.2% YoY. Currency (Rs) has depreciated by 5.0%

Axis Direct

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