HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.</li>
<li>Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.</li>
<li>The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay's valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.</li>
</ul>


Mufemilast will face fierce competition and price reduction due to NRDL negotiation for related indications. For autoimmune disease drugs, overseas market space and ceiling are much higher than in China.
Hemay022’s market space is narrower than pan HER2 inhibitors and HER2 ADC. There is still uncertainty in efficacy/safety profile. Hemay022 will face challenges in terms of commercialization after market launch.
The current valuation logic for innovative drugs in China has changed. Without decent licensing cooperation, Hemay's valuation will be discounted. Valuation of Hemay should be lower than peers.


Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

Equity Bottom-Up

Duality Biotherapeutics / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trump said he will place import taxes on 100% of pharmaceutical drugs, which will begin on Oct.1. Below, we shared our views on this new policy.</li>
<li>Some companies continue to repurchase/increase their holdings despite the industry's significant rise this year, indicating that major shareholders truly have confidence in the outlook. We specifically listed these companies.</li>
<li>The fluctuations in Duality’s stock price are obviously driven by capital after being included in HK Stock Connect. we suggest that investors pay attention to risks as Duality faces correction.</li>
</ul>


Trump said he will place import taxes on 100% of pharmaceutical drugs, which will begin on Oct.1. Below, we shared our views on this new policy.
Some companies continue to repurchase/increase their holdings despite the industry's significant rise this year, indicating that major shareholders truly have confidence in the outlook. We specifically listed these companies.
The fluctuations in Duality’s stock price are obviously driven by capital after being included in HK Stock Connect. we suggest that investors pay attention to risks as Duality faces correction.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.28) - Trump’s Pharma Tariff, Companies Increase Their Holdings, Duality

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality Biotherapeutics, Xiaomi, Tencent, ICBC, Great Wall Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality Biotherapeutics, Xiaomi, Tencent, ICBC, Great Wall Motor.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 19th): Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance

TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At current valuation level, leading biotech listed in Hong Kong have generally “overdrawn” their performance for the next 1 to 3 years. So, it is time to consider taking profits.</li>
<li>TransThera’s shares have been highly volatile following their inclusion in several innovative-drug ETFs. We analyzed the drivers behind this move. With valuation now diverging from fundamentals, we advise caution.</li>
<li>The fluctuations of Duality’s shares were driven by the inclusion of HSCI. However, some funds chose to take profits at high stock prices, thus Duality is under pressure of correction.</li>
</ul>


At current valuation level, leading biotech listed in Hong Kong have generally “overdrawn” their performance for the next 1 to 3 years. So, it is time to consider taking profits.
TransThera’s shares have been highly volatile following their inclusion in several innovative-drug ETFs. We analyzed the drivers behind this move. With valuation now diverging from fundamentals, we advise caution.
The fluctuations of Duality’s shares were driven by the inclusion of HSCI. However, some funds chose to take profits at high stock prices, thus Duality is under pressure of correction.


China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind "Crazy" TransThera

Genfleet Therapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Genfleet raised HKD 1819m (USD 233m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, September 18th.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at the company's operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.</li>
</ul>


Genfleet raised HKD 1819m (USD 233m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, September 18th.
In our previous note, we looked at the company's operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.


Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Trading Update

China

Duality Biotherapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery and development of next-generation antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) to treat cancer and autoimmune diseases. The company develops a pipeline of ADC candidates, including DB-1303/BNT323 (HER2 ADC), DB-1311/BNT324 (B7-H3 ADC), DB-1310 (HER3 ADC), and DB-1305/BNT325 (TROP2 ADC), for various cancers. Duality Biotherapeutics is headquartered in Shanghai, China, and was founded in 2019.

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Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)

Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.28) - Trump’s Pharma Tariff, Companies Increase Their Holdings, Duality

Trump’s 100% pharma tariff starting Oct. 1. Major shareholders of some companies increased their holdings at high prices. Fluctuations in Duality’s...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 19th): Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind "Crazy" TransThera

Investors in HK biotechs should consider taking profits as they are overvalued. Duality is under pressure of correction. TransThera’s shares...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Trading Update

Genfleet raises $233m in global offering and is set to list on HKSE on Sept 18. We provides an update prior to its trading debut.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Ganzhou Hemay Pharmaceutical - The Concerns on the Pipelines

​Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.28) - Trump’s Pharma Tariff, Companies Increase Their Holdings, Duality

Trump’s 100% pharma tariff starting Oct. 1. Major shareholders of some companies increased their holdings at high prices. Fluctuations in Duality’s...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 19th): Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly(Sep.21)-HK Biotechs Are Overvalued, Duality, Story Behind "Crazy" TransThera

​Investors in HK biotechs should consider taking profits as they are overvalued. Duality is under pressure of correction. TransThera’s shares...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Trading Update

​Genfleet raises $233m in global offering and is set to list on HKSE on Sept 18. We provides an update prior to its trading debut.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mufemilast, Hemay022 face challenges in commercialization due to uncertainties in R&D, fierce competition. As valuation logic for innovative drugs...

Investors in HK biotechs should consider taking profits as they are overvalued. Duality is under pressure of correction. TransThera’s shares...

Genfleet raises $233m in global offering and is set to list on HKSE on Sept 18. We provides an update prior to its trading debut.