Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.</li>
<li>China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.</li>
<li>We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.</li>
</ul>


Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.
China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.


Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>This is the first edition of the Real Asset Chartbook.This document arose from an internal need at Massif Capital to consolidate and streamline our process of monitoring liquid real asset markets. It remains a work in progress but is extremely useful in its present state. </div><div>The Chartbook will be released weekly, on Fridays, after the market closes.</div>

This is the first edition of the Real Asset Chartbook.This document arose from an internal need at Massif Capital to consolidate and streamline our process of monitoring liquid real asset markets. It remains a work in progress but is extremely useful in its present state. The Chartbook will be released weekly, on Fridays, after the market closes.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):<ol>
<li>
COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).</li>
<li>
Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated <a href="https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">billions</a> to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.</li>
<li>
PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.</li>
</ol>

The Biden-Harris administration recently announced four "Day One" priorities, the first of which is their COVID-19 response plan. COVID-19 response is first, because it is a prerequisite to economic recovery, which is the second of their four "Day One" priorities.Several investment themes are inherent in Biden's COVID-19 plan, some more direct and obvious than others. This Insight overviews more significant themes and their most representative stocks, in three sections (the first two will be expanded on in separate upcoming reports):

COVID-19 Testing: Testing is the largest, most tangible, nearest-term investment opportunity created by Biden's plan. An estimated US$75-100 billion for testing could be windfall for certain stocks, but not all. Selectivity is key, and timing is critical (related to vaccine development).

Vaccine Delivery: Biden's plan emphasises vaccine manufacturing and delivery, versus vaccine development (Trump had allocated billions to vaccine development companies). Some might go to big pharma companies for M&amp;D, but most should benefit other "cold chain" stocks.

PPE Supply/Other: PPE manufacturing, of course, but that is largely old news. I will address it, but do so along with other more interesting collateral themes. For example, retail drugs chains, elder-care, medical technologies, and a few other related industries.


Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially something similar to what the market experienced between June and early-July. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary &amp; Materials: Retailers, Footwear, Retailers, Teenagers, Metals, Steel, Integrated, Non-U.S., and Chemicals, Diversified.

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

United States

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. operates as a chemical company. The Company offers elastomeric photopolymer printing plates, structural and elastic adhesives, fluids, reinforcing composites, foams, coatings, rubber and elastomers, topical ingredients, food ingredients, animal nutrition, biomaterials, water purification technologies, and fibers.

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DuPont (DD US)

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

Real Asset Chartbook: The First Edition

This is the first edition of the Real Asset Chartbook. This document arose from an internal need at Massif Capital to consolidate and streamline...

Massif Capital Research

Biden COVID-19 Response Plan: Overview of Its Inherent Investment Themes

Biden's recently-announced COVID-19 response plan suggests a number of investment themes. This Insight overviews the more significant of those...

Kyle Rudden

U. S. Equity Strategy: Bull-Bear Battle Continues

Due to uptrend violations for the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 we continue to believe near-term consolidation is likely -- potentially...

Vermilion Research

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