Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.</li>
<li>We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.</li>
</ul>


The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.


Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report. Additionally, Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe with the RS uptrend intact. We highlight several attractive set ups.

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report. Additionally, Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe with the RS uptrend intact. We highlight several attractive set ups.

EM Strategy and Chartbook: Remain Overweight EM Vs. EAFE

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  </li>
<li>
On…</li>
</ul>

Summary
Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Driven by iPhone 7, Apple Inc (AAPL US) Watch 2 production built, open market smartphones in emerging countries, and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) Note 7 battery problem, our 3Q16 sales report takeaways suggest y/y strengths in foundry and fabless vendors and q/q strengths in Apple's touch panel/pressure sensor and OEM/EMS vendors.  

On…


Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech July sales are somehow below seasonal and below our expectations. If analysts start to factor in 3-4% appreciation on NT$ against US starting July, earnings prospects in 2H16 for semi and tech companies might not be as strong as market estimated earlier. In conclusion, we believe not much sales momentum left over before we see a seasonal semiconductor…

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways suggest strengths in foundry, fabless, and display vendors to drive Taiwan semi sales recovery of 17% y/y in June and 8 out 12 vendors reported a beat on 2Q16 sales guidance. Despite the strengths, we saw weaknesses in power amplifier, touch panel, and solar vendors and our semi leading indicator fell to 8% in June 2016 from this year peak of 31% in…

Taiwan

E Ink Holdings Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets thin film transistor liquid crystal displays (TFT-LCDs).  The Company's products are mainly used in mobile video systems, car navigation systems, camcorders, digitalcameras, industrial instruments, etc.

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E Ink Holdings (8069 TT)

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan is the latest major country to break out, and we are buyers. Japan continues to be considerably further along in the bottoming process...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy and Chartbook: Remain Overweight EM Vs. EAFE

China (MSCI China, Shanghai Comp., Shenzhen A Share) continues to offer many attractive setups and is a major focus in today’s EM Strategy report....

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Semi/Tech 3Q Sales Takeaway as an Early Indicator for Global Tech Earnings

Summary Starting October 13, 2016, TSMC will be the first company to report 3Q16 results and provide 4Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings...

Andrew Lu

Insights from Taiwan Semi/Tech July Sales

Despite recent strong performance (17% ytd) across US and Taiwan semiconductor index, we are turning a bit cautious here because Taiwan Semi/Tech...

Andrew Lu

Points from Taiwan Semi/Tech 2Q Sales

Starting July 14, 2016, TSMC will first report 2Q16 results and provide 3Q16 guidance to kick off semi/tech earnings season. Our report takeaways...

Andrew Lu

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