Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimation of the latest ranks of potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in September 2024.</li>
<li>We have been tracking these movements for several months and it seemed like index changes were unlikely to take place but our expectations have changed now.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in Europe and the annual index review takes place in September every year.
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimation of the latest ranks of potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in September 2024.
We have been tracking these movements for several months and it seemed like index changes were unlikely to take place but our expectations have changed now.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Billion Dollar Flows Now in the Money

<ul>
<li>The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STX 50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
Historically, these Rebalance events have had significant volume impact and they generally involve large cap names. 
In this insight, we take a look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review in September 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23:  Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades; US$1.1bn+ for ADDs

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In a recent Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/climate-pledges-promise-and-potential-for-planet-and-profit-but-the-devil-is-in-the-details" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50690" rel="noopener">Climate Pledges: Promise and Potential for Planet and Profit... But the Devil Is in the Details</a>, I addressed the recent spate of net-zero climate pledges from the proverbial 50,000 foot level. Why a healthy dose of skepticism is justified, what to look for in scrutinizing corporate climate pledges, and why you should. It was heavy on theory, background, definitions, etc.More recently, I published an Insight that zoomed in on the subject. Still at altitude, but not 50,000 feet. In that Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/climate-pledges-singapore-and-japan-lead-apac-issuers-in-quality-of-climate-pledges" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50701" rel="noopener">Climate Pledges: Singapore and Japan Lead APAC Issuers in Quality of Climate Pledges</a>, I assessed and bechmarked climate pledges by Asia Pacific companies. Whilst it is a stand-alone analysis, it also provides perspective for deeper company-specific analyses and reports.In the context corporate climate action, the Asia Pacific region is uniquely interesting especially in terms of relative activity. But APAC is still eclipsed by Europe and North America in absolute totals, and some of the upcoming company-specific analyses will invariably cover some big European and U.S. names. Oil supermajors, big technology. Both climate cretins, and climate leaders.Like the aforementioned Asia Pacific report, this Insight is takes a closer look at climate pledges by European issuers (by domicile and primary listing). It analyses specific issuers, albeit largely from a regional and sectoral perspective. A sort of triaging of large swatches of issuers, in part to identify candidates for deeper-dives. Similar to the APAC report in purpose, but a very different universe.

In a recent Insight, Climate Pledges: Promise and Potential for Planet and Profit... But the Devil Is in the Details, I addressed the recent spate of net-zero climate pledges from the proverbial 50,000 foot level. Why a healthy dose of skepticism is justified, what to look for in scrutinizing corporate climate pledges, and why you should. It was heavy on theory, background, definitions, etc.More recently, I published an Insight that zoomed in on the subject. Still at altitude, but not 50,000 feet. In that Insight, Climate Pledges: Singapore and Japan Lead APAC Issuers in Quality of Climate Pledges, I assessed and bechmarked climate pledges by Asia Pacific companies. Whilst it is a stand-alone analysis, it also provides perspective for deeper company-specific analyses and reports.In the context corporate climate action, the Asia Pacific region is uniquely interesting especially in terms of relative activity. But APAC is still eclipsed by Europe and North America in absolute totals, and some of the upcoming company-specific analyses will invariably cover some big European and U.S. names. Oil supermajors, big technology. Both climate cretins, and climate leaders.Like the aforementioned Asia Pacific report, this Insight is takes a closer look at climate pledges by European issuers (by domicile and primary listing). It analyses specific issuers, albeit largely from a regional and sectoral perspective. A sort of triaging of large swatches of issuers, in part to identify candidates for deeper-dives. Similar to the APAC report in purpose, but a very different universe.

Climate Pledges By Utilities Are Among the Best in Europe

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Today, the Victorian government rejected a A$250mn 300-metre floating gas terminal proposal at Mornington Peninsula. Planning Minister Richard Wynne said the Crib Point terminal would have had "<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02358799-2A1289920?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unacceptable environmental effects</a>" in Western Port.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/047/original/image_90576892521617071507869.png?1617071510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198047"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: ABC. A protester in a wetsuit taking his concerns about the terminal to the Victorian Parliament in early March</div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>, which has already outlayed millions of dollars on the Crib Point project, <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02358799-2A1289920?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it was “considering its position” on the minister’s decision.
Concurrent with this rejection, AGL <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02358644-2A1289840?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it was splitting into two separate companies: a thermal coal generation business and a separate zero-carbon energy retailer. 
The split follows a raft of new initiatives/developments recently including an <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2021/january/agl-announces-suppliers-for-grid-scale-battery-plans" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreement</a> with suppliers for grid-scale battery plans, the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355442-2A1288076?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">renewal</a> of the Portland smelter contract, and the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02353382-2A1286980?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">participation</a> in PowAR's acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilt-renewables-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24371:1" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ)</a> (<a href="https://skr.ma/i5ugg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow</a>).
Speculation of a demerger has been running hot since Australia's oldest energy unity grappled with softening power prices, and a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02340133-2A1279818?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$2.29bn</a> loss in the 1H21, exacerbated by A$2.7bn in <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02337704-2A1278422?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impairment charges</a>. 
The share price reaction to the split was largely muted. 
As always, more below the fold.

Today, the Victorian government rejected a A$250mn 300-metre floating gas terminal proposal at Mornington Peninsula. Planning Minister Richard Wynne said the Crib Point terminal would have had "unacceptable environmental effects" in Western Port.

Source: ABC. A protester in a wetsuit taking his concerns about the terminal to the Victorian Parliament in early March
AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), which has already outlayed millions of dollars on the Crib Point project, announced it was “considering its position” on the minister’s decision.
Concurrent with this rejection, AGL announced it was splitting into two separate companies: a thermal coal generation business and a separate zero-carbon energy retailer. 
The split follows a raft of new initiatives/developments recently including an agreement with suppliers for grid-scale battery plans, the renewal of the Portland smelter contract, and the participation in PowAR's acquisition of Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) (Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow).
Speculation of a demerger has been running hot since Australia's oldest energy unity grappled with softening power prices, and a A$2.29bn loss in the 1H21, exacerbated by A$2.7bn in impairment charges. 
The share price reaction to the split was largely muted. 
As always, more below the fold.

AGL Energy (AGL AU): Carbon/Zero-Carbon Split

M&A Reporting, CTFN

Jonathan Spitzer

M&A Reporting

CTFN

Bringing the marketplace leading coverage of mergers, events, and major corporate actions, CTFN has a team of seasoned reporters from Los Angeles to London, publishing news that advances stories that matter to event-driven investors and deal professionals.

German utilities E.ON and RWE remain in pre-notification discussions with the European Commission to obtain regulatory clearance for their planned asset swap, an E.ON spokesperson told CTFN. “It’s a normal process to clarify some basics in a pre-notifications phase. That usually takes some months. After this phase we will submit a formal notification,” the spokesperson said.

German utilities E.ON and RWE remain in pre-notification discussions with the European Commission to obtain regulatory clearance for their planned asset swap, an E.ON spokesperson told CTFN. “It’s a normal process to clarify some basics in a pre-notifications phase. That usually takes some months. After this phase we will submit a formal notification,” the spokesperson said.

E.ON-RWE Asset Swap Likely Subject to Lengthy Reviews

Germany

E.ON is one of Europe's largest operators of energy networks and energy infrastructure and a provider of innovative customer solutions for some 51 million customers. The company's operations are energy networks and customer solutions.

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E.ON (EOAN GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 24: Billion Dollar Flows Now in the Money

There could be 23 days of volume to buy in DSM-Firmenich and 15 days of volume to sell in Nokia as things stand. However, this is a low-conviction...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: Eurozone’s Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades; US$1.1bn+ for ADDs

Vonovia SE (VNA GR) is a high-conviction DEL and Wolters Kluwer Nv (WKL NA) but Ferrari NV (RACE IM) are leading the race to take Vonovia's slot in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Climate Pledges By Utilities Are Among the Best in Europe

Corporate climate pledges by European companies eclipse all other regions of the world, and with some interesting differences such as which sectors...

Kyle Rudden

AGL Energy (AGL AU): Carbon/Zero-Carbon Split

The demerger announcement provides shareholders with a carbon exposure choice. Arguably, the split should be positive for forward growth for both...

David Blennerhassett

E.ON-RWE Asset Swap Likely Subject to Lengthy Reviews

German utilities E.ON and RWE remain in pre-notification discussions with the European Commission to obtain regulatory clearance for their planned...

CTFN

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