Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.</li>
<li>In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.</li>
<li>This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to ride this trend higher and buy dips as long as ACWI-US and EEM-US remain above supports at $110 and $41-$42.
In our previous Int'l Compass (June 27) we discussed the rotation that we believed was starting, whereby global Technology (IXN-US) would consolidate as investors rotate to laggard areas.
This rotation has continued while Technology goes through a healthy consolidation. Continue to focus on other more value-oriented Sectors while Technology/growth consolidates


Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some</li>
<li>This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries</li>
<li>Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world</li>
</ul>


Monthly high frequency data from Taiwan's banks shows strong profit acceleration through May YTD, which will include insurance investment gains for some
This can be driven by accelerating loan growth to technology companies, to related companies, indirectly and may explain in part, Taiwan's leading loan growth rate vs other countries
Credit metrics and net profit growth can be supported for Taiwan's banks by a sector focus that differs from many others in the region and the world


Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

<ul>
<li>Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.</li>
<li>Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. </li>
<li>Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.</li>
</ul>


Thailand, Macau and Hong Kong report negative loan growth in monthly HFD data.
Japan may be the most surprising with relatively high growth and relative to last year. 
Indonesia moves from strength to strength, where India loan growth is high, but less so.


Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 24th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD100.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Pharmaessentia.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 24th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD100.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine, Quanta Computer, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Pharmaessentia.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 24th): Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,408.0bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,709mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Umc, Hon Hai, Mediatek, E.Sun Financial, Eva Airways, Ctbc Financial, Novatek, Sinopac Fncl.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,408.0bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD5,709mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Umc, Hon Hai, Mediatek, E.Sun Financial, Eva Airways, Ctbc Financial, Novatek, Sinopac Fncl.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 24th): TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Umc, Hon Hai, Mediatek, E.Sun Financial

Taiwan

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

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E.Sun Financial Holding Co (2884 TT)

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Global Financials, Industrials, Discretionary

Rotation Continues; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI and $EEM hold above $110 and $41-42; Buys in global Financials, Industrials, and Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Banks - HFD Profit Figures Good, Tech Exposure Can Support Credit Metrics, Loan Growth

Taiwan's banks may be unique with reasonable tech exposure, a possible driver for some of the best loan volume anywhere, with strong credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Credit Growth - Thailand, Macau, HK Report Negative Loan Growth, Japan, Indonesia Shine

Global credit growth data on a monthly basis, shows a vast range of cycles, with Thailand, Macau and HK the worse off. Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia...

Daniel Tabbush

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 24th): Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen Marine

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Asustek Computer, Realtek Semi, Evergreen...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 24th): TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Umc, Hon Hai, Mediatek, E.Sun Financial

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Lite-On Tech, Umc, Hon Hai, Mediatek,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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