European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>690p appears to have bridged the valuation gap. The Board is now minded to recommend a firm offer, leaving execution and regulatory approvals as the key remaining hurdles.</li>
<li>Our previous thesis has largely played out. We argued valuation, rather than ownership, would determine the outcome and increased our target price to 675p with a probability-weighted value of 677p/share.</li>
<li>We raise our TP to 690p/share. The shares should move materially higher on Monday, although we expect a merger-arbitrage spread to persist until a firm Rule 2.7 offer is announced.</li>
</ul>


690p appears to have bridged the valuation gap. The Board is now minded to recommend a firm offer, leaving execution and regulatory approvals as the key remaining hurdles.
Our previous thesis has largely played out. We argued valuation, rather than ownership, would determine the outcome and increased our target price to 675p with a probability-weighted value of 677p/share.
We raise our TP to 690p/share. The shares should move materially higher on Monday, although we expect a merger-arbitrage spread to persist until a firm Rule 2.7 offer is announced.


Castlelake/EasyJet: Valuation Bridged, Execution Remains

<ul>
<li>Castlelake raised its proposal to 650p/share and secured limited due diligence, while easyJet rejected the offer and obtained a PUSU extension to 5 July to continue discussions.</li>
<li>At 650p, easyJet would be acquired at 3.6x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x sector median and roughly half Ryanair's 7.2x multiple, supporting the Board's position.</li>
<li>I raise my target price to 675p/share. The probability-weighted value is 677p, as ownership concerns have eased and valuation now appears the principal remaining issue. </li>
</ul>


Castlelake raised its proposal to 650p/share and secured limited due diligence, while easyJet rejected the offer and obtained a PUSU extension to 5 July to continue discussions.
At 650p, easyJet would be acquired at 3.6x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x sector median and roughly half Ryanair's 7.2x multiple, supporting the Board's position.
I raise my target price to 675p/share. The probability-weighted value is 677p, as ownership concerns have eased and valuation now appears the principal remaining issue. 


Castlelake/EasyJet: Final Approach at 650p?

<ul>
<li>Castlelake’s 625p proposal values easyJet at 3.45x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x peer median and less than half Ryanair’s 7.2x multiple, supporting the board’s rejection.</li>
<li>Castlelake’s 625p proposal values easyJet at 3.45x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x peer median and less than half Ryanair’s 7.2x multiple, supporting the board’s rejection.</li>
<li>My base-case valuation is 632p/share, rising to 731p at the sector median multiple. Probability-weighted value is 635p, versus the current share price of 518p.</li>
</ul>


Castlelake’s 625p proposal values easyJet at 3.45x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x peer median and less than half Ryanair’s 7.2x multiple, supporting the board’s rejection.
Castlelake’s 625p proposal values easyJet at 3.45x NTM EBITDA, below the 4.1x peer median and less than half Ryanair’s 7.2x multiple, supporting the board’s rejection.
My base-case valuation is 632p/share, rising to 731p at the sector median multiple. Probability-weighted value is 635p, versus the current share price of 518p.


Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
<li>We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.</li>
<li>We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2026 rebal.
We currently expect one F100 change and two F250 changes for the December 2026 rebal. An IPO drives the F100 change, while one F250 change depends on a market transfer.
We also expect one intra-review change for the F250 prior to the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.</li>
<li>We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.
We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

United Kingdom

easyJet is a British multinational low-cost airline and package holiday group that operates domestic and international scheduled services across numerous routes in over 34 countries. The company primarily focuses on providing air travel services with an emphasis on low fares, operational efficiency, and a point-to-point model. Headquartered at London Luton Airport in the UK, easyJet was founded in 1995.

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easyJet (EZJ LN)

Castlelake/EasyJet: Valuation Bridged, Execution Remains

Castlelake's revised proposal materially changes the takeover dynamics. We reassess valuation, deal probability and what the Board's latest stance...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Castlelake/EasyJet: Final Approach at 650p?

easyJet rejected Castlelake's fourth proposal at 650p and granted limited diligence. I reassess valuation, downside support and the implications...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Castlelake/EasyJet: Is 625p Enough?

At 625p, easyJet would be acquired at 3.45x NTM EBITDA. We review the proposal against peer multiples, asset value and likely shareholder...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec26: Airtel Money IPO and Serica Transfer in Focus

Airtel Money could become a strong name for the F100 inclusion in December 2026. We also see Serica Energy as an F250 ADD if it transfers to the...

Afridi Reyal

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

SE600 members Beazley and Schroders will be deleted from the index after today's close. We expect Vontobel (VONN SW) and B&M European Value Retail...

Afridi Reyal

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