Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Qoo10 has been quietly growing its share of the Japanese e-commerce market. </li>
<li>Despite relentless competition from the big 3, Qoo10 has managed to increase members from 10 million in 2018 to 23 million through event marketing and close attention to customer demands.</li>
<li>While cosmetics and fashion are the current focus, Qoo10 is also strengthening other categories like food, stationery and electronics.</li>
</ul>


Qoo10 has been quietly growing its share of the Japanese e-commerce market. 
Despite relentless competition from the big 3, Qoo10 has managed to increase members from 10 million in 2018 to 23 million through event marketing and close attention to customer demands.
While cosmetics and fashion are the current focus, Qoo10 is also strengthening other categories like food, stationery and electronics.


Ebay's Qoo10 More than Doubles Users to 23 Million in 5 Years

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Permira and Blackstone announced a NOK 115.0/share offer, two months after their approach was unveiled. 3-month VWAP premium is 52.6%. The offer represents 18.3x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA (vs. 14.6x comparables)</li>
<li>The three largest shareholders (c.72.3%) communicated at the outset their support, so it's a done deal. 90% condition can be waived. Board says price "financially fair", but cannot recommend it.</li>
<li>I set my TP at NOK 115. The consortium could achieve an IRR of 17.8% by year 8. Spread is 3.3%/6.65% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 31 May). Long.</li>
</ul>


Permira and Blackstone announced a NOK 115.0/share offer, two months after their approach was unveiled. 3-month VWAP premium is 52.6%. The offer represents 18.3x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA (vs. 14.6x comparables)
The three largest shareholders (c.72.3%) communicated at the outset their support, so it's a done deal. 90% condition can be waived. Board says price "financially fair", but cannot recommend it.
I set my TP at NOK 115. The consortium could achieve an IRR of 17.8% by year 8. Spread is 3.3%/6.65% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 31 May). Long.


<ul>
<li>An investor consortium (including Blackstone and Permira) has made a non-binding bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adevinta-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35679:1" rel="noopener">Adevinta ASA (ADE NO)</a>, which says the talks are in an early phase.</li>
<li>By applying a 30% premium, the potential offer price would be NOK 111.5/share (18.6x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, IBES consensus). A leveraged buyer could obtain an 18% IRR by year 8.</li>
<li>Adevinta trades (COM 26 September) at 17.6x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (vs. 16.4x median of comparables), so we can say the shares look fairly valued. Downside looks limited. I'd be long.</li>
</ul>


An investor consortium (including Blackstone and Permira) has made a non-binding bid for Adevinta ASA (ADE NO), which says the talks are in an early phase.
By applying a 30% premium, the potential offer price would be NOK 111.5/share (18.6x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, IBES consensus). A leveraged buyer could obtain an 18% IRR by year 8.
Adevinta trades (COM 26 September) at 17.6x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (vs. 16.4x median of comparables), so we can say the shares look fairly valued. Downside looks limited. I'd be long.


Blackstone&Permira/Adevinta: Potential LBO

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>eBay delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.</li><li>Over the past three years, eBay's tech-led re-imagination journey aimed to become the best global marketplace, focusing on products that provide value and meaningful customer choices.</li><li>The management is working towards overhauling the user experience and design to offer personalized browsing experiences and are rapidly deploying AI-driven features like Magical Listing.</li></ul>

eBay delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat.Over the past three years, eBay's tech-led re-imagination journey aimed to become the best global marketplace, focusing on products that provide value and meaningful customer choices.The management is working towards overhauling the user experience and design to offer personalized browsing experiences and are rapidly deploying AI-driven features like Magical Listing.

eBay Inc.: Enhancing The Fashion Shopping Experience With The Certilogo Acquisition! – Key Drivers

United States

eBay Inc. operates an online trading community.  The Company's service is used by buyers and sellers for the exchange of products and services such as coins, collectibles, computers, memorabilia, stamps and toys, as well as concert and sporting tickets.  eBay also offers, through a subsidiary, secure online payment services.

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Ebay Inc (EBAY US)

Ebay's Qoo10 More than Doubles Users to 23 Million in 5 Years

Ebay's Qoo10 quietly expands in Japanese e-commerce market, doubling members in 5 years through event marketing and customer focus. Now expanding...

Michael Causton

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

Blackstone&Permira/Adevinta: Firm Offer

Permira and Blackstone have made a NOK 115.0/share offer for a company, with the support of its three largest shareholders (72.3%). The board...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Blackstone&Permira/Adevinta: Potential LBO

An investor consortium (including Blackstone and Permira) has made a non-binding bid for Adevinta ASA (ADE NO), which says the talks are in an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

eBay Inc.: Enhancing The Fashion Shopping Experience With The Certilogo Acquisition! – Key Drivers

eBay delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat. Over...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ebay's Qoo10 More than Doubles Users to 23 Million in 5 Years

Ebay's ​Qoo10 quietly expands in Japanese e-commerce market, doubling members in 5 years through event marketing and customer focus. Now expanding...

Michael Causton

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

Blackstone&Permira/Adevinta: Firm Offer

​Permira and Blackstone have made a NOK 115.0/share offer for a company, with the support of its three largest shareholders (72.3%). The board...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Blackstone&Permira/Adevinta: Potential LBO

An investor consortium (including Blackstone and Permira) has made a non-binding bid for Adevinta ASA (ADE NO), which says the talks are in an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

eBay Inc.: Enhancing The Fashion Shopping Experience With The Certilogo Acquisition! – Key Drivers

eBay delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, with revenues well below analyst expectations but managed an earnings beat. Over...

Baptista Research

Ebay's Qoo10 quietly expands in Japanese e-commerce market, doubling members in 5 years through event marketing and customer focus. Now expanding...

Permira and Blackstone have made a NOK 115.0/share offer for a company, with the support of its three largest shareholders (72.3%). The board...