New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EBOS Group’s (EBO), largest competitor Sigma (SIG.ASX) has confirmed it has signed a binding term sheet with Chemist Warehouse (CW) for both the Pharmaceutical and FMCG supply contracts for a period of five years commencing on 1 July 2024</li><li>EBO was previously the supplier for the pharmaceutical contract while SIG held the FMCG contract.</li><li>This is a material and surprising announcement for EBO given its high levels of service for CW, particularly considering SIG’s relative underperformance.</li></ul>

EBOS Group’s (EBO), largest competitor Sigma (SIG.ASX) has confirmed it has signed a binding term sheet with Chemist Warehouse (CW) for both the Pharmaceutical and FMCG supply contracts for a period of five years commencing on 1 July 2024EBO was previously the supplier for the pharmaceutical contract while SIG held the FMCG contract.This is a material and surprising announcement for EBO given its high levels of service for CW, particularly considering SIG’s relative underperformance.

EBOS Group (EBO): Chemist Warehouse Update – Sigma Wins Both Contracts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) reported a strong 1H23 result in-line with our expectations (ahead of consensus) showcasing +30% NPAT growth versus 1H22</li><li>While we continue to view EBO as a well-positioned, quality, defensive business with a robust earnings outlook, it has been 12 months since we upgraded our FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts.</li><li>At ~25x 12-month forward PE (significant relative and absolute premium to history), in the absence of upwards earnings momentum, we think a period of share price consolidation is likely, particularly given its probable slowing organic growth profile</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) reported a strong 1H23 result in-line with our expectations (ahead of consensus) showcasing +30% NPAT growth versus 1H22While we continue to view EBO as a well-positioned, quality, defensive business with a robust earnings outlook, it has been 12 months since we upgraded our FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts.At ~25x 12-month forward PE (significant relative and absolute premium to history), in the absence of upwards earnings momentum, we think a period of share price consolidation is likely, particularly given its probable slowing organic growth profile

EBOS Group: 1H23 Result — In the Waiting Room

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) delivered a solid 1H23 result broadly in-line with our expectations.</li><li>Underlying NPAT was A$141.6m (FB; A$143.7m, consensus; A$143.1m) with higher D&amp;A and interest costs (offset slightly by lower tax rate) driving the slight miss versus our expectations.</li><li>As always, minimal guidance was provided – EBO continues to expect “another year of profitable growth in FY23”.</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) delivered a solid 1H23 result broadly in-line with our expectations.Underlying NPAT was A$141.6m (FB; A$143.7m, consensus; A$143.1m) with higher D&amp;A and interest costs (offset slightly by lower tax rate) driving the slight miss versus our expectations.As always, minimal guidance was provided – EBO continues to expect “another year of profitable growth in FY23”.

EBOS Group (EBO): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a solid 1H23 result with little surprises (given 1Q23 was pre-released) on Wednesday, 22 February 2023. </li><li>We expect it to be largely business as usual, with a continuation of healthy growth across the portfolio</li><li>Key focus areas are; (1) trading post 1Q23 (and if there are any signs of slowing earnings growth), (2) LifeHealthcare [LHC] insights, (3) Chemist Warehouse [CW] contract renewal updates, and (4) balance sheet.</li></ul>

We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a solid 1H23 result with little surprises (given 1Q23 was pre-released) on Wednesday, 22 February 2023. We expect it to be largely business as usual, with a continuation of healthy growth across the portfolioKey focus areas are; (1) trading post 1Q23 (and if there are any signs of slowing earnings growth), (2) LifeHealthcare [LHC] insights, (3) Chemist Warehouse [CW] contract renewal updates, and (4) balance sheet.

EBOS Group: 1H23 Preview — Any Signs of Slowing?

Australia

EBOS Group Limited supplies and distributes medical consumable products and equipment to the hospital and primary care sectors of the New Zealand and Australian healthcare markets. The Company's products include diagnostic instruments, surgical instruments and prosthesis, feminine protection, anesthetic equipment, and other consumer products.

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EBOS Group (EBO AU)

EBOS Group (EBO): Chemist Warehouse Update – Sigma Wins Both Contracts

EBOS Group’s (EBO), largest competitor Sigma (SIG.ASX) has confirmed it has signed a binding term sheet with Chemist Warehouse (CW) for both the...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

EBOS Group: 1H23 Result — In the Waiting Room

EBOS Group (EBO) reported a strong 1H23 result in-line with our expectations (ahead of consensus) showcasing +30% NPAT growth versus 1H22; While we...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group (EBO): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

EBOS Group (EBO) delivered a solid 1H23 result broadly in-line with our expectations; Underlying NPAT was A$141.6m (FB; A$143.7m, consensus;...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group: 1H23 Preview — Any Signs of Slowing?

We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a solid 1H23 result with little surprises (given 1Q23 was pre-released) on Wednesday, 22 February 2023, and we...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EBOS Group (EBO): Chemist Warehouse Update – Sigma Wins Both Contracts

EBOS Group’s (EBO), largest competitor Sigma (SIG.ASX) has confirmed it has signed a binding term sheet with Chemist Warehouse (CW) for both the...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

EBOS Group: 1H23 Result — In the Waiting Room

EBOS Group (EBO) reported a strong 1H23 result in-line with our expectations (ahead of consensus) showcasing +30% NPAT growth versus 1H22; While we...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group (EBO): 1H23 Result – Initial Impressions

EBOS Group (EBO) delivered a solid 1H23 result broadly in-line with our expectations; Underlying NPAT was A$141.6m (FB; A$143.7m, consensus;...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group: 1H23 Preview — Any Signs of Slowing?

We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a solid 1H23 result with little surprises (given 1Q23 was pre-released) on Wednesday, 22 February 2023, and we...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes