New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) has lowered its FY26 EBITDA guidance by ~-2% at the mid-point (or ~-3% to 2H26 EBITDA).</li><li>The driver of the downgrade is higher fuel and other related (plastics, polystyrene etc.) costs.</li><li>The ability for EBO to fully recoup higher fuel prices is currently unclear.</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) has lowered its FY26 EBITDA guidance by ~-2% at the mid-point (or ~-3% to 2H26 EBITDA).The driver of the downgrade is higher fuel and other related (plastics, polystyrene etc.) costs.The ability for EBO to fully recoup higher fuel prices is currently unclear.

EBOS Group (EBO): FY26 Guidance Downgrade

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) will host an investor day in Sydney on 30 April.</li><li>We and consensus forecast FY26 being the trough in: margins, returns, free cash flow conversion, and peak gearing.</li><li>We hope the investor day affirms this improving view, which helps underpin our OUTPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) will host an investor day in Sydney on 30 April.We and consensus forecast FY26 being the trough in: margins, returns, free cash flow conversion, and peak gearing.We hope the investor day affirms this improving view, which helps underpin our OUTPERFORM rating.

EBOS Group 2026 Investor Day Preview—Back To Basics

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) 1H26 result was in line with our expectations, but by no means perfect.</li><li>Positively, Community Pharmacy revenue was ahead of consensus, with Contract Logistics growth (particularly Australia) strong and FY26 guidance retained.</li><li>Overall, we think the result has done enough to provide the building blocks to rebuild investor confidence and meaningfully reduces the downside risks from here, but it will not be an overnight fix.</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) 1H26 result was in line with our expectations, but by no means perfect.Positively, Community Pharmacy revenue was ahead of consensus, with Contract Logistics growth (particularly Australia) strong and FY26 guidance retained.Overall, we think the result has done enough to provide the building blocks to rebuild investor confidence and meaningfully reduces the downside risks from here, but it will not be an overnight fix.

EBOS Group 1H26 Result—Looking for a Productive 2H26

<ul><li>We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a soft (as well signalled) 1H26 result on Wednesday 25 February, reflecting: (1) the annualisation of elevated healthcare opex in 2H25; and (2) meaningfully higher ‘below-the-line’ items, which surprised negatively in 2H25.</li><li>We forecast EBITDA of ~A$302m (+4% vs 1H25) and NPAT of ~A$124m (-5% vs 1H25), and are below consensus for both, albeit we question whether consensus is completely accurate.</li><li>In light of the turbulent past six months, there will be many discussion points, but with EBO having de-rated to ~15x 12-month forward PE (10-year average of ~21x), investor expectations are very low—we see the risk–reward as favourable heading into the result.</li></ul>

We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a soft (as well signalled) 1H26 result on Wednesday 25 February, reflecting: (1) the annualisation of elevated healthcare opex in 2H25; and (2) meaningfully higher ‘below-the-line’ items, which surprised negatively in 2H25.We forecast EBITDA of ~A$302m (+4% vs 1H25) and NPAT of ~A$124m (-5% vs 1H25), and are below consensus for both, albeit we question whether consensus is completely accurate.In light of the turbulent past six months, there will be many discussion points, but with EBO having de-rated to ~15x 12-month forward PE (10-year average of ~21x), investor expectations are very low—we see the risk–reward as favourable heading into the result.

EBOS Group 1H26 Preview—Low Expectations

<ul><li>EBOS Group (EBO) reiterated its FY26 EBITDA and implied NPAT guidance as part of its 2025 annual shareholder meeting (ASM) materials.</li><li>The SVS acquisition is outperforming expectations.</li><li>More broadly, we see the guidance reiteration as a small positive amid uncertainty and it suggests healthcare margins will sequentially stabilise in FY25 from 2H25 after consecutive periods of sequential declines.</li></ul>

EBOS Group (EBO) reiterated its FY26 EBITDA and implied NPAT guidance as part of its 2025 annual shareholder meeting (ASM) materials.The SVS acquisition is outperforming expectations.More broadly, we see the guidance reiteration as a small positive amid uncertainty and it suggests healthcare margins will sequentially stabilise in FY25 from 2H25 after consecutive periods of sequential declines.

Australia

EBOS Group Limited supplies and distributes medical consumable products and equipment to the hospital and primary care sectors of the New Zealand and Australian healthcare markets. The Company's products include diagnostic instruments, surgical instruments and prosthesis, feminine protection, anesthetic equipment, and other consumer products.

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EBOS Group (EBO AU)

EBOS Group (EBO): FY26 Guidance Downgrade

EBOS Group (EBO) has lowered its FY26 EBITDA guidance by ~-2% at the mid-point (or ~-3% to 2H26 EBITDA). The driver of the downgrade is higher...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group 2026 Investor Day Preview—Back To Basics

EBOS Group (EBO) will host an investor day in Sydney on 30 April. We and consensus forecast FY26 being the trough in: margins, returns, free cash...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group 1H26 Result—Looking for a Productive 2H26

Positively, Community Pharmacy revenue was ahead of consensus, with Contract Logistics growth (particularly Australia) strong and FY26 guidance...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group 1H26 Preview—Low Expectations

We forecast EBITDA of ~A$302m (+4% vs 1H25) and NPAT of ~A$124m (-5% vs 1H25), and are below consensus for both, albeit we question whether...

Forsyth Barr

EBOS Group 103rd AGM—Baby Steps

EBOS Group (EBO) reiterated its FY26 EBITDA and implied NPAT guidance as part of its 2025 annual shareholder meeting (ASM) materials.

Forsyth Barr

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