Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebos-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18336:1" rel="noopener">Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ)'s</a> proposed acquisition of LifeHealthcare has been cleared by Australian Competition Commission, paving the timely closure of the transaction by the end of FY22.</li>
<li>EBOS has achieved another record result in H1FY22, headlined by double digit revenue and earnings growth, due to continued strong growth trajectory of both healthcare and animal care segments.</li>
<li>EBOS shares gained 5% since I published bullish insight on December 16. I am still optimistic on the long-term growth prospect of the company.</li>
</ul>



Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ)'s proposed acquisition of LifeHealthcare has been cleared by Australian Competition Commission, paving the timely closure of the transaction by the end of FY22.
EBOS has achieved another record result in H1FY22, headlined by double digit revenue and earnings growth, due to continued strong growth trajectory of both healthcare and animal care segments.
EBOS shares gained 5% since I published bullish insight on December 16. I am still optimistic on the long-term growth prospect of the company.


EBOS Group (EBO NZ): Strong Industry Positioning and Acquisitions to Drive Growth

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries / Event-Driven

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australian-pharmaceutical-industries-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19399:1" rel="noopener">Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)</a></strong>'s Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02486907-3A587316?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 17 March with possible implementation on the 31 March.  </li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded this US$600mn Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Senex shareholders.</li>
<li>The Offer price is full. And trading very tight to terms.</li>
</ul>



Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)'s Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 17 March with possible implementation on the 31 March.  
The Independent Expert has concluded this US$600mn Offer is fair and reasonable and in the best interest of Senex shareholders.
The Offer price is full. And trading very tight to terms.


Aussie Pharma (API AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 17 March

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ebos Group aims to raise A$ 100 million through a retail offer to partly fund the acquisition of LifeHealthcare. The acquisition creates an exciting platform to drive future growth.</li>
<li>Defensive product mix enabled EBOS to successfully navigate pandemic driven uncertainty and post record high ROCE of 18% in FY21. Balance Sheet remains healthy, with net debt/EBITDA of 0.85x.</li>
<li>FY22 starts on a strong note, with revenue and NPAT growing at over 10% and 14%, y/y, respectively. Dividend is expected at 60–80% of NPAT in FY22.</li>
</ul>


Ebos Group aims to raise A$ 100 million through a retail offer to partly fund the acquisition of LifeHealthcare. The acquisition creates an exciting platform to drive future growth.
Defensive product mix enabled EBOS to successfully navigate pandemic driven uncertainty and post record high ROCE of 18% in FY21. Balance Sheet remains healthy, with net debt/EBITDA of 0.85x.
FY22 starts on a strong note, with revenue and NPAT growing at over 10% and 14%, y/y, respectively. Dividend is expected at 60–80% of NPAT in FY22.


EBOS Group (EBO NZ): Raising Capital to Fund Acquisition; Attractive Bet on Australasian Healthcare

<div>
<p>Back on the 12 July, wholesale and retail pharmacy operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19399" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19399:1" rel="noopener">Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU)</a> (API) <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02394187-3A570533?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an indicative, non-binding Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a> by way of a Scheme at $1.38/share,  a 20.5% premium to last close.  Separately, Wesfarmers entered into an agreement with API's largest shareholder <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> (WHSP), such that WHSP will vote its 19.3% interest in favour of Wesfarmers' proposal, in the absence of a superior Offer.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The proposal appeared opportunistic and the API board agreed (with that idea) and rejected the proposed Offer on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02400478-3A571605?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">29 July</a> on grounds it undervalued API, was not compelling, and was not in the best interest of shareholders. </p>
</div>
<p>Wesfarmers and API subsequently entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02422163-3A575967?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">process deed</a> on the 16 September after Wesfarmers bumped the Offer by 12.3% to A$1.55/share. A fully franked dividend of A$0.05/share is permitted, which will reduce the cash consideration if paid. WHSP remains supportive.</p>
<div>
<p>API granted Wesfarmers exclusive due diligence until the 16 October. The proposal is also subject to ACCC clearance.</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>API has now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02426356-3A576689?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has received a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>. API shareholders would receive an implied A$1.57/share under Sigma’s cash-and-stock proposal. A similar franked dividend, to the one in the Wesfermers' proposal, is also permitted. </p>
<p>This is the third attempt by Australia's two largest pharmaceutical distributors to merge: the first was shot down by the ACCC in 2002, and the second was rejected by Sigma (when API was the acquiror) in 2019.</p>
<p>Sigma has been afforded confirmatory due diligence - which appears will take place after Wesfarmers' exclusive due diligence, although the wording in today's announcement is unclear. </p>
<p>Wesfarmers proposal is cleaner as an all-cash proposal  - and WHSP is a willing seller. Yet an API/Sigma tie-in would amalgamate key pharmacy brands (Amcal, Guardian, and Priceline) into one entity. It remains to be seen whether the ACCC's stance has changed from 19 years ago.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 12 July, wholesale and retail pharmacy operator Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (API AU) (API) announced an indicative, non-binding Offer from Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) by way of a Scheme at $1.38/share,  a 20.5% premium to last close.  Separately, Wesfarmers entered into an agreement with API's largest shareholder Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) (WHSP), such that WHSP will vote its 19.3% interest in favour of Wesfarmers' proposal, in the absence of a superior Offer.


The proposal appeared opportunistic and the API board agreed (with that idea) and rejected the proposed Offer on the 29 July on grounds it undervalued API, was not compelling, and was not in the best interest of shareholders. 

Wesfarmers and API subsequently entered into a process deed on the 16 September after Wesfarmers bumped the Offer by 12.3% to A$1.55/share. A fully franked dividend of A$0.05/share is permitted, which will reduce the cash consideration if paid. WHSP remains supportive.

API granted Wesfarmers exclusive due diligence until the 16 October. The proposal is also subject to ACCC clearance.
The New News
API has now announced it has received a non-binding proposal from Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU). API shareholders would receive an implied A$1.57/share under Sigma’s cash-and-stock proposal. A similar franked dividend, to the one in the Wesfermers' proposal, is also permitted. 
This is the third attempt by Australia's two largest pharmaceutical distributors to merge: the first was shot down by the ACCC in 2002, and the second was rejected by Sigma (when API was the acquiror) in 2019.
Sigma has been afforded confirmatory due diligence - which appears will take place after Wesfarmers' exclusive due diligence, although the wording in today's announcement is unclear. 
Wesfarmers proposal is cleaner as an all-cash proposal  - and WHSP is a willing seller. Yet an API/Sigma tie-in would amalgamate key pharmacy brands (Amcal, Guardian, and Priceline) into one entity. It remains to be seen whether the ACCC's stance has changed from 19 years ago.


More below the fold.


Aussie Pharma (API AU): Sigma's Rival Bid (Just) Edges Wesfarmers

New Zealand

EBOS Group Limited supplies and distributes medical consumable products and equipment to the hospital and primary care sectors of the New Zealand and Australian healthcare markets. The Company's products include diagnostic instruments, surgical instruments and prosthesis, feminine protection, anesthetic equipment, and other consumer products.

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Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

EBOS Group (EBO NZ): Strong Industry Positioning and Acquisitions to Drive Growth

EBOS is an attractive bet on Australasian healthcare space, due to enhanced visibility of its accretive acquisition of LifeHealthcare and continued...

Tina Banerjee

Aussie Pharma (API AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 17 March

Trading super at a gross/annualised spread of 0.3%/2.8%. However, if you are a low-rate payer, who can reclaim the franking credits, there's may...

David Blennerhassett

EBOS Group (EBO NZ): Raising Capital to Fund Acquisition; Attractive Bet on Australasian Healthcare

EBOS aims to raise A$ 100 million via retail placement to partly fund the acquisition of LifeHealthcare, which should accelerate EBOS' medical...

Tina Banerjee

Aussie Pharma (API AU): Sigma's Rival Bid (Just) Edges Wesfarmers

Trading slightly below Wesfarmer's cash proposal. That looks like a reasonable place to enter. Wesfarmers can easily trump any tilt from Sigma.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

EBOS Group (EBO NZ): Strong Industry Positioning and Acquisitions to Drive Growth

EBOS is an attractive bet on Australasian healthcare space, due to enhanced visibility of its accretive acquisition of LifeHealthcare and continued...

Tina Banerjee

Aussie Pharma (API AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 17 March

Trading super at a gross/annualised spread of 0.3%/2.8%. However, if you are a low-rate payer, who can reclaim the franking credits, there's may...

David Blennerhassett

EBOS Group (EBO NZ): Raising Capital to Fund Acquisition; Attractive Bet on Australasian Healthcare

EBOS aims to raise A$ 100 million via retail placement to partly fund the acquisition of LifeHealthcare, which should accelerate EBOS' medical...

Tina Banerjee

Aussie Pharma (API AU): Sigma's Rival Bid (Just) Edges Wesfarmers

Trading slightly below Wesfarmer's cash proposal. That looks like a reasonable place to enter. Wesfarmers can easily trump any tilt from Sigma.

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes