Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> has announced mixed FY26 result, with revenue meeting and operating profit missing guidance due to higher SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses, and impairment loss.</li>
<li>Prescription drug portfolio of Torii, newly launched insomnia treatment Quviviq, Radicava business in the U.S., and royalty income from HIV franchise are the key growth drivers.</li>
<li>Shionogi expects FY27 revenue to grow 40% YoY to ¥700B. Due to surging opex, the company has guided for FY27 operating profit of ¥220B, up 32% YoY.</li>
</ul>



Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) has announced mixed FY26 result, with revenue meeting and operating profit missing guidance due to higher SG&amp;A and R&amp;D expenses, and impairment loss.
Prescription drug portfolio of Torii, newly launched insomnia treatment Quviviq, Radicava business in the U.S., and royalty income from HIV franchise are the key growth drivers.
Shionogi expects FY27 revenue to grow 40% YoY to ¥700B. Due to surging opex, the company has guided for FY27 operating profit of ¥220B, up 32% YoY.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): FY26 Result Falls Short of Expectation; Mixed Guidance for FY27

Asia Healthcare Analyst, Pathology Associates Limited

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Asia Healthcare Analyst

Pathology Associates Limited

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1">Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP)</a></strong> - May 09, 2018</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>FY16A</td>
<td>FY17E <br> Preview</td>
<td>% ∆<br> y-o-y</td>
<td>FY17<br> CE*</td>
<td>% ∆<br> y-o-y</td>
<td>Notes</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sales  (¥b)</td>
<td>338.9</td>
<td>347.0</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>345.0</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>HIV franchise royalty to drive topline</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GPM (%)</td>
<td>77.0%</td>
<td>78.7%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>77.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>Earnings in the form of royalty improve gross margins</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core EBIT (¥b)</td>
<td>111.5</td>
<td>117.6</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reported EBIT</td>
<td>108.2</td>
<td>114.3</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>113.5</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core EPS** (¥)</td>
<td>263.4</td>
<td>307.8</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reported EPS </td>
<td>255.9</td>
<td>297.8</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
<td>317.0</td>
<td>23.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p><strong>FY18e Potential Guidance</strong></p><ul><li>HIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its products…</li></ul>

Shionogi &amp; Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018

FY16A
FY17E   Preview
% ∆  y-o-y
FY17  CE*
% ∆  y-o-y
Notes


Sales  (¥b)
338.9
347.0
2.4%
345.0
1.8%
HIV franchise royalty to drive topline


GPM (%)
77.0%
78.7%
2.2%
77.8%
1.0%
Earnings in the form of royalty improve gross margins


Core EBIT (¥b)
111.5
117.6
5.5%
N.A.
 


Reported EBIT
108.2
114.3
5.7%
113.5
4.9%


Core EPS** (¥)
263.4
307.8
16.9%
N.A.
 


Reported EPS 
255.9
297.8
16.4%
317.0
23.9%

FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its products…

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> revealed Five-Year Business Plan (FY27–31), with an aim to emerge as a global top five oncology company as measured by ¥2.3T+ oncology revenue by 2030.</li>
<li>The company aims to deliver more than ¥3T in FY31 revenue. Operating profit of more than ¥600B is expected to be achieved by end of FY31.</li>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo will maximize the value of its DXd ADC portfolio and additional oncology pipeline through rapid market penetration of more than 20 new indications across five medicines by 2030.</li>
</ul>



Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) revealed Five-Year Business Plan (FY27–31), with an aim to emerge as a global top five oncology company as measured by ¥2.3T+ oncology revenue by 2030.
The company aims to deliver more than ¥3T in FY31 revenue. Operating profit of more than ¥600B is expected to be achieved by end of FY31.
Daiichi Sankyo will maximize the value of its DXd ADC portfolio and additional oncology pipeline through rapid market penetration of more than 20 new indications across five medicines by 2030.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Ends FY26 on Mixed Note; It’s Time to Focus on Innovation Prowess

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised full-year EPS guidance 2- names where there is a significant gap between guidance and consensus and 3- names where there is a big variance in consensus estimates.</p><p>First we looked at names that have revised up full-year EPS guidance in the last 2 months. On the positive side, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (6178 JP)</a> revised up EPS guidance by 13%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/638" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1">JX Holdings Inc</a>…</p>

Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised full-year EPS guidance 2- names where there is a significant gap between guidance and consensus and 3- names where there is a big variance in consensus estimates.First we looked at names that have revised up full-year EPS guidance in the last 2 months. On the positive side, Japan Post Holdings Co Ltd (6178 JP) revised up EPS guidance by 13%, JX Holdings Inc…

With Earnings About to Start, Names that Have Recently Revised or Have Analysts Still Confused....

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1">Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP)</a> @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 294 / share and industry leading dividend yield of 3.7%. We maintain OW rating on the stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1">Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP)</a> @ ¥ 1,914 / share (up 15% YTD) implies ~78x (~200% premium to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 25 / share (or -61% FY17-19e core EPS CAGR). We maintain UW rating on the stock</li>
<li>After a steep weekly decline of 16%…</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 294 / share and industry leading dividend yield of 3.7%. We maintain OW rating on the stock.

Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co (4506 JP) @ ¥ 1,914 / share (up 15% YTD) implies ~78x (~200% premium to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥ 25 / share (or -61% FY17-19e core EPS CAGR). We maintain UW rating on the stock
After a steep weekly decline of 16%…


Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Japan

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): FY26 Result Falls Short of Expectation; Mixed Guidance for FY27

Shionogi announces FY26 results, with revenue meeting but operating profit missing guidance due to higher expenses. The company expects 32%...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Ends FY26 on Mixed Note; It’s Time to Focus on Innovation Prowess

Daiichi Sankyo aims to become a global top five oncology company with ¥2.3T+ oncology revenue by 2030, by maximize the value of its DXd ADC...

Tina Banerjee

With Earnings About to Start, Names that Have Recently Revised or Have Analysts Still Confused....

Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised...

Custom Products Group

Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

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52-week Range

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Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): FY26 Result Falls Short of Expectation; Mixed Guidance for FY27

​Shionogi announces FY26 results, with revenue meeting but operating profit missing guidance due to higher expenses. The company expects 32%...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Pharmaceuticals: FY17e Earnings Preview (II)

Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507 JP) - May 09, 2018FY18e Potential GuidanceHIV franchise continues its growth trajectory, however, genericization of its...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Ends FY26 on Mixed Note; It’s Time to Focus on Innovation Prowess

​Daiichi Sankyo aims to become a global top five oncology company with ¥2.3T+ oncology revenue by 2030, by maximize the value of its DXd ADC...

Tina Banerjee

With Earnings About to Start, Names that Have Recently Revised or Have Analysts Still Confused....

Earnings will start in earnest in the next couple of weeks and so we thought we would take a look at 1- companies that have recently revised...

Custom Products Group

Japan Pharmaceuticals: The Week that Was…

Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4502 JP) @ ¥ 4,911/ share (down 24% YTD) implies ~17x (~30% discount to industry average) our FY19e core EPS of ¥...

Dion Stéfan Büchner M.D., FCAP

Shionogi announces FY26 results, with revenue meeting but operating profit missing guidance due to higher expenses. The company expects 32%...

Daiichi Sankyo aims to become a global top five oncology company with ¥2.3T+ oncology revenue by 2030, by maximize the value of its DXd ADC...