Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a> has reported better-than-expected 3QFY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and profit, mainly driven by global mainstay products such as Enhertu and Lixiana, and favorable forex.</li>
<li>Driven by favorable Fx, sales increase from couple of products, and litigation payment, the company raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively.</li>
<li>FDA set an action date for Daiichi Sankyo’s second ADC drug candidate HER3-DXd of June 26 and for Dato-DXd of December 20. Both are for various types of lung cancers.</li>
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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) has reported better-than-expected 3QFY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue and profit, mainly driven by global mainstay products such as Enhertu and Lixiana, and favorable forex.
Driven by favorable Fx, sales increase from couple of products, and litigation payment, the company raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively.
FDA set an action date for Daiichi Sankyo’s second ADC drug candidate HER3-DXd of June 26 and for Dato-DXd of December 20. Both are for various types of lung cancers.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> has come out with ambitious revenue target for Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi with new estimates for global eligible patient population and potential indication expansions.</li>
<li>By FY27, Eisai expects Leqembi can generate revenue of ¥290B (~$2B) worldwide. Leqembi revenue can potentially ballooned to a whopping ¥1.6T (~$10.8B) by FY33, according to the company.</li>
<li>Through January, Eisai could reach just 2,000 patients in the U.S. versus target of 10K patients by March. The sluggish progress of Leqembi makes Eisai’s target difficult to achieve.</li>
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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has come out with ambitious revenue target for Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi with new estimates for global eligible patient population and potential indication expansions.
By FY27, Eisai expects Leqembi can generate revenue of ¥290B (~$2B) worldwide. Leqembi revenue can potentially ballooned to a whopping ¥1.6T (~$10.8B) by FY33, according to the company.
Through January, Eisai could reach just 2,000 patients in the U.S. versus target of 10K patients by March. The sluggish progress of Leqembi makes Eisai’s target difficult to achieve.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Despite Sluggish Launch, Ambitious Long-Term Target Set for Leqembi

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.</li>
<li>For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.</li>
<li>Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.</li>
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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported 5% YoY decline in core revenue in 2023, due to the decrease in the supply of COVID-19 treatment Ronapreve to the government.
For 2024, Chugai expects core revenue to decline mainly due to the absence of Ronapreve revenue and decline in Actemra export. However, operating and net profits are expected to increase.
Hemlibra export and new launches such as Vabysmo, Phesgo, Polivy, and Alecensa are expected to drive long-term growth of the company.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Ronapreve Killed Joy in 2023; New Products to Drive Growth Ahead

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> shares corrected more than 60% from highs over the disappointment from Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi. During H1FY24, Leqembi reported revenue of just ¥400M ($3M).</li>
<li>With approximately 40% revenue contribution, anti-cancer drug Lenvima is the top selling drug of Eisai. In the U.S., Lenvima patent protection will start to expire in US in October 2025.</li>
<li>In December, Eisai has submitted a marketing authorization application in Japan for tasurgratinib for biliary tract cancer. If approved, tasurgratinob will be a late entrant in a crowded market.</li>
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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) shares corrected more than 60% from highs over the disappointment from Alzheimer’s disease drug Leqembi. During H1FY24, Leqembi reported revenue of just ¥400M ($3M).
With approximately 40% revenue contribution, anti-cancer drug Lenvima is the top selling drug of Eisai. In the U.S., Lenvima patent protection will start to expire in US in October 2025.
In December, Eisai has submitted a marketing authorization application in Japan for tasurgratinib for biliary tract cancer. If approved, tasurgratinob will be a late entrant in a crowded market.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Why Performance Reversal Is Not Expected in Near-Term

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

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<li>Japan Catalyst’s <a href="https://www.japancatalyst.com/pdf/JCI_TAISHO_20231201_eng.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">press release</a> supports the idea of a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a> MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.</li>
<li>The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.</li>
<li>While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
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Japan Catalyst’s press release supports the idea of a Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP) MBO but not the proposed offer price as it implies a P/B less than 1.0x.
The press release is a discovery exercise encouraging other like-minded shareholders to show their hand. The shares are trading marginally above the JPY8,620 offer.
While justifiable, a bump is unlikely due to the lack of a substantial activist shareholder, irrevocables, no competing bid and the offer’s 55.5% premium to the undisturbed price.


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Japan Catalyst Pushes for a Bump

Japan

Eisai Co., Ltd. produces prescription drugs and medical equipment and sells mainly to sales agents and subsidiaries.  Through its subsidiary, Sanko Junyaku, the Company produces and sells diagnostic drugs.  Eisai also markets its products through related companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.  The Company also manufactures and sells foods, livestock feeds, chemical, and agrochemicals.

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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Second Time FY24 Guidance Raise; Event Heavy FY25 With 2 New Drug Approval

Daiichi Sankyo raised FY24 revenue, core op. profit, and net profit forecast by 2%, 16%, and 30%, respectively. FDA set action dates for HER3-DXd...

Tina Banerjee