Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
Various prior leadership areas from the April lows appear ready to continue higher following 1+ month consolidations. IGV, PLTR, APP, SOUN, RZLV, SHOP, FROG, U, CDNS, RDDT, JMIA, RR, Z,HIMS,MU,GRAL


Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

<ul>
<li>Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. </li>
<li>A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level</li>
</ul>


Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level


Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>No constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest flows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp-ce7d7ca6-59e0-44f1-958f-e5b679750b06" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25937:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alamos-gold-inc-75888dd6-1d65-427e-950c-393b5d90ab2e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38624:1" rel="noopener">Alamos Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd-d293fe94-bbca-4158-9fbf-32bc457dfbcd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28569:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eldorado-gold-corp-e1b47e21-d9a5-4258-bd94-49cbea7538ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38673:1" rel="noopener">Eldorado Gold</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/k92-mining-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43238:1" rel="noopener">K92 Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iamgold-corp-5935fec7-fa4d-4edb-bfdb-971f391ebb16" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38714:1" rel="noopener">IAMGOLD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/endeavour-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38789:1" rel="noopener">Endeavour Silver</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources</a>.</li>
</ul>


No constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in December. But there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There are 8 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest flows are Evolution Mining, Pan American Silver, Westgold Resources, B2Gold, Alamos Gold, Harmony Gold Mining, Eldorado Gold, K92 Mining, IAMGOLD, Endeavour Silver and Emerald Resources.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).</li>
<li>2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)</li>
<li>SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670


SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

Turkey

Eldorado Gold Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company currently has operating gold mines in Brazil, China, Turkey, Greece, and surrounding regions.

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Eldorado Gold (EGO US)

Downgrading Utilities to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Prior Leadership to Shine?

Downgrading Utilities $XLU to Market Weight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Time for Prior Leadership to Shine? $IGV $PLTR $APP $SOUN $RZLV $SHOP $FROG $U...

Vermilion Research

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Big Flow in Some Stocks

No constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.6% and in a round-trip trade of US$269m. There...

Brian Freitas

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

$SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact as long as no weekly close > 5783; Keeping an Open Mind considering high yield spreads and MOVE...

Vermilion Research

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