Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4QFY26 results topped estimates across all key metrics. Net sales of $449.3MM increased 35% Y/Y, well above both our $418.8MM estimate and FactSet consensus of $423.0MM, with organic sales growth of 1% and rhode contributing $113MM.</li><li>Adjusted EPS of $0.32 exceeded our $0.28 estimate and consensus of $0.30.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA of $59MM surpassed both our $48.2MM estimate and consensus of $50.4MM, though it declined from $81MM in 4Q25 as elevated marketing investment, including a Super Bowl campaign, and infrastructure spending pressured margins as expected.</li></ul>

4QFY26 results topped estimates across all key metrics. Net sales of $449.3MM increased 35% Y/Y, well above both our $418.8MM estimate and FactSet consensus of $423.0MM, with organic sales growth of 1% and rhode contributing $113MM.Adjusted EPS of $0.32 exceeded our $0.28 estimate and consensus of $0.30.Adjusted EBITDA of $59MM surpassed both our $48.2MM estimate and consensus of $50.4MM, though it declined from $81MM in 4Q25 as elevated marketing investment, including a Super Bowl campaign, and infrastructure spending pressured margins as expected.

ELF: Rhode Momentum Drives 4Q Upside; Initial FY27 Guidance Appears Conservative

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>e.l.f. Beauty delivered a third quarter characterized by strong reported growth alongside a clear divergence between acquired and organic performance, providing a mixed but informative picture of the company’s underlying trajectory.</li><li>Reported net sales increased 38% year over year, driven primarily by the contribution from the rhode acquisition, which added approximately $128 million during the quarter and materially exceeded initial expectations.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA rose 79%, reflecting scale benefits, marketing leverage year over year, and the high-margin profile of the acquired brand, partially offset by tariff-related cost pressure.</li></ul>

e.l.f. Beauty delivered a third quarter characterized by strong reported growth alongside a clear divergence between acquired and organic performance, providing a mixed but informative picture of the company’s underlying trajectory.Reported net sales increased 38% year over year, driven primarily by the contribution from the rhode acquisition, which added approximately $128 million during the quarter and materially exceeded initial expectations.Adjusted EBITDA rose 79%, reflecting scale benefits, marketing leverage year over year, and the high-margin profile of the acquired brand, partially offset by tariff-related cost pressure.

e.l.f. Beauty’s Rhode Bet Changes the Growth Equation — Execution Upside or Integration Risk?

<ul><li>The latest financial results and strategic initiatives of e.l.f. Beauty depict a complex landscape of both strengths and challenges.</li><li>In its fiscal second quarter, e.l.f. Beauty reported a 14% increase in net sales, continuing its 27th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, partly driven by the acquisition of Rhode, a beauty brand founded by Hailey Bieber.</li><li>This acquisition contributed $52 million to the quarter’s net sales, equating to approximately 17 percentage points of growth.</li></ul>

The latest financial results and strategic initiatives of e.l.f. Beauty depict a complex landscape of both strengths and challenges.In its fiscal second quarter, e.l.f. Beauty reported a 14% increase in net sales, continuing its 27th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, partly driven by the acquisition of Rhode, a beauty brand founded by Hailey Bieber.This acquisition contributed $52 million to the quarter’s net sales, equating to approximately 17 percentage points of growth.

e.l.f. Beauty Just Made A POWER MOVE—How Will Its Rhode Acquisition Redefine the Skincare Game?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.</li>
<li>As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.</li>
<li>Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.
As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.
Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

<ul><li>e.l.f. Beauty reported their first quarter results for fiscal year 2026, marking the 26th consecutive quarter of net sales growth and market share gains.</li><li>The company posted a 9% increase in net sales compared to the same period last year, which had already seen a substantial 50% growth.</li><li>Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $87 million, underscoring the company’s effective cost management and efficiency improvements.</li></ul>

e.l.f. Beauty reported their first quarter results for fiscal year 2026, marking the 26th consecutive quarter of net sales growth and market share gains.The company posted a 9% increase in net sales compared to the same period last year, which had already seen a substantial 50% growth.Adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $87 million, underscoring the company’s effective cost management and efficiency improvements.

e.l.f. Beauty Expands Across International Markets Through Strategic Sephora Deals; What Lies Ahead?

United States

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. operates as a cosmetic company. The Company offers beauty products for eyes, lips, and face. e.l.f. Beauty provides eyeliners, lipsticks, lip care and brushes, powder, and skin care products.

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elf Beauty Inc (ELF US)

ELF: Rhode Momentum Drives 4Q Upside; Initial FY27 Guidance Appears Conservative

4QFY26 results topped estimates across all key metrics. Net sales of $449.3MM increased 35% Y/Y, well above both our $418.8MM estimate and FactSet...

Water Tower Research

e.l.f. Beauty’s Rhode Bet Changes the Growth Equation — Execution Upside or Integration Risk?

e.l.f. Beauty delivered a third quarter characterized by strong reported growth alongside a clear divergence between acquired and organic...

Baptista Research

e.l.f. Beauty Just Made A POWER MOVE—How Will Its Rhode Acquisition Redefine the Skincare Game?

The latest financial results and strategic initiatives of e.l.f. Beauty depict a complex landscape of both strengths and challenges. In its fiscal...

Baptista Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Last week (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the $SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted...

Vermilion Research

e.l.f. Beauty Expands Across International Markets Through Strategic Sephora Deals; What Lies Ahead?

e.l.f. Beauty reported their first quarter results for fiscal year 2026, marking the 26th consecutive quarter of net sales growth and market share...

Baptista Research

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