Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On July 2, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eli-lilly-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19419:1" rel="noopener">Eli Lilly &amp; Co (LLY US)</a> has received FDA approval for its Alzheimer’s disease drug Kisunla, which will compete head-on-head with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a>'s Leqembi.  </li>
<li>Efficacy and indications of both the drugs are similar. Price comparison is tricky. However, Kisunla can be stopped when amyloid plaques are removed, which is not the case for Leqembi.</li>
<li>Eisai is not expected to face immediate competition and should comfortably meet Leqembi FY25 revenue target of ¥56.5B, including ¥43.5B from the U.S. Recently, Leqembi has been launched in China.</li>
</ul>


On July 2, Eli Lilly &amp; Co (LLY US) has received FDA approval for its Alzheimer’s disease drug Kisunla, which will compete head-on-head with Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)'s Leqembi.  
Efficacy and indications of both the drugs are similar. Price comparison is tricky. However, Kisunla can be stopped when amyloid plaques are removed, which is not the case for Leqembi.
Eisai is not expected to face immediate competition and should comfortably meet Leqembi FY25 revenue target of ¥56.5B, including ¥43.5B from the U.S. Recently, Leqembi has been launched in China.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): New Competition Is Coming for Alzheimer’s Disease Drug; No Immediate Threat

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> has signed the largest ever single CMO contract worth KRW1.46T ($1.1B) with an undisclosed U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. The contract value represents ~40% of 2023 standalone revenue.</li>
<li>Within the first half of the year, Samsung Biologics has secured order worth of KRW2.6T, compared with order win of KRW3.5T in full-year 2023.</li>
<li>Samsung Bioepis has received FDA approval for Stelara biosimilar Pyzchiva, which is expected to marketed in early 2025. So far, the FDA has approved two other biosimilars of Stelara.  </li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) has signed the largest ever single CMO contract worth KRW1.46T ($1.1B) with an undisclosed U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. The contract value represents ~40% of 2023 standalone revenue.
Within the first half of the year, Samsung Biologics has secured order worth of KRW2.6T, compared with order win of KRW3.5T in full-year 2023.
Samsung Bioepis has received FDA approval for Stelara biosimilar Pyzchiva, which is expected to marketed in early 2025. So far, the FDA has approved two other biosimilars of Stelara.  


Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Gaining Momentum on New Approval and Contract Wins; Hold Shares

<ul>
<li>In Q4FY24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cipla-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3918:1" rel="noopener">Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)</a> posted 10% YoY revenue growth to INR61.6B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 13% YoY to INR13B, leading to 54bps margin expansion to 21.4%.</li>
<li>New launches in U.S. and outperformance in the domestic market driven by chronic portfolio should drive the growth. For FY25, the company has guided for EBITDA margin of 24.5–25.5%.</li>
<li>Cipla shares soared 15% YTD. Last week, the promoters, Hamied family sold 2.5% stake in the company for ~INR26B, igniting a rally in share price.</li>
</ul>


In Q4FY24, Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN) posted 10% YoY revenue growth to INR61.6B. Despite surging R&amp;D expenditure, EBITDA increased 13% YoY to INR13B, leading to 54bps margin expansion to 21.4%.
New launches in U.S. and outperformance in the domestic market driven by chronic portfolio should drive the growth. For FY25, the company has guided for EBITDA margin of 24.5–25.5%.
Cipla shares soared 15% YTD. Last week, the promoters, Hamied family sold 2.5% stake in the company for ~INR26B, igniting a rally in share price.


Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> has guided for FY25 Leqembi revenue of ¥56.5B (~$366M), with ¥43.5B from U.S., and ¥10.0B from Japan. In FY24, Leqembi reported worldwide revenue of ¥4.2B.</li>
<li>Leqembi is expected to grow significantly due to increase in prescriptions following the progress in the development of AD diagnosis and treatment pathways in the U.S. and Japan.</li>
<li>The current rally can be short lived, as the competitor drug is expected to get FDA approval in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>



Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has guided for FY25 Leqembi revenue of ¥56.5B (~$366M), with ¥43.5B from U.S., and ¥10.0B from Japan. In FY24, Leqembi reported worldwide revenue of ¥4.2B.
Leqembi is expected to grow significantly due to increase in prescriptions following the progress in the development of AD diagnosis and treatment pathways in the U.S. and Japan.
The current rally can be short lived, as the competitor drug is expected to get FDA approval in 3Q24.


Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In Q1 2024, Eli Lilly and Company achieved strong growth and strategic milestones, with revenue growing by 26% and new products increasing by nearly $1.8 billion in comparison to the same period last year.</li><li>The company's new products, primarily Mounjaro and Zepbound, primarily drove the growth.</li><li>Eli Lilly also accomplished various pipeline milestones during this period.</li></ul>

In Q1 2024, Eli Lilly and Company achieved strong growth and strategic milestones, with revenue growing by 26% and new products increasing by nearly $1.8 billion in comparison to the same period last year.The company's new products, primarily Mounjaro and Zepbound, primarily drove the growth.Eli Lilly also accomplished various pipeline milestones during this period.

Eli Lilly & Co: The Story Behind The Increasing Demand vs. Production of Orforglipron & Progress of Other Drugs! - Major Drivers

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals. The Company products are sold in countries around the world. Eli Lilly products include neuroscience, endocrine, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & (LLY UN)

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): New Competition Is Coming for Alzheimer’s Disease Drug; No Immediate Threat

FDA approves Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's disease drug Kisunla. However, Eisai is not expected to face immediate competition and is expected to meet...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Gaining Momentum on New Approval and Contract Wins; Hold Shares

Samsung Biologics signs $1.1B CMO contract, representing 40% of 2023 revenue. Samsung Bioepis receives FDA approval for Stelara biosimilar...

Tina Banerjee

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale

Cipla reports double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, and margin expansion in Q4, riding on US, India, and South Africa businesses. For FY25, the...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

Eisai expects 13x jump in Leqembi revenue for FY25 to ¥56.5B, driven by progress in AD treatment pathways in U.S. and Japan, and China launch. A...

Tina Banerjee

Eli Lilly & Co: The Story Behind The Increasing Demand vs. Production of Orforglipron & Progress of Other Drugs! - Major Drivers

In Q1 2024, Eli Lilly and Company achieved strong growth and strategic milestones, with revenue growing by 26% and new products increasing by...

Baptista Research

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Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): New Competition Is Coming for Alzheimer’s Disease Drug; No Immediate Threat

​FDA approves Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's disease drug Kisunla. However, Eisai is not expected to face immediate competition and is expected to meet...

Tina Banerjee

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Gaining Momentum on New Approval and Contract Wins; Hold Shares

​Samsung Biologics signs $1.1B CMO contract, representing 40% of 2023 revenue. Samsung Bioepis receives FDA approval for Stelara biosimilar...

Tina Banerjee

Cipla (CIPLA IN): Strong Q4 Performance; Future Growth Drivers Being Added; Promoter Stake Sale

​Cipla reports double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, and margin expansion in Q4, riding on US, India, and South Africa businesses. For FY25, the...

Tina Banerjee

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi Is Gathering Momentum; Imminent Competition May Spoil the Party

​Eisai expects 13x jump in Leqembi revenue for FY25 to ¥56.5B, driven by progress in AD treatment pathways in U.S. and Japan, and China launch. A...

Tina Banerjee

Eli Lilly & Co: The Story Behind The Increasing Demand vs. Production of Orforglipron & Progress of Other Drugs! - Major Drivers

In Q1 2024, Eli Lilly and Company achieved strong growth and strategic milestones, with revenue growing by 26% and new products increasing by...

Baptista Research

FDA approves Eli Lilly's Alzheimer's disease drug Kisunla. However, Eisai is not expected to face immediate competition and is expected to meet...

Samsung Biologics signs $1.1B CMO contract, representing 40% of 2023 revenue. Samsung Bioepis receives FDA approval for Stelara biosimilar...

Cipla reports double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, and margin expansion in Q4, riding on US, India, and South Africa businesses. For FY25, the...

Eisai expects 13x jump in Leqembi revenue for FY25 to ¥56.5B, driven by progress in AD treatment pathways in U.S. and Japan, and China launch. A...