HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Anhui’s new VBP included OTC TCM for the first time, which poses a big challenge to the pricing autonomy of CR Sanjiu. This makes Sanjiu's acquisition of Tasly more important/urgent. </li>
<li>Novo Nordisk's performance has raised concerns. The capacity bottleneck for weight-loss drugs seems resolved. Could this signal that the market for weight-loss drugs is reaching its peak?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)</a>’s CM310 will miss this year’s NRDL negotiations, putting the company at a disadvantage. Considering the competitive landscape, we are concerned about Keymed’s performance.</li>
</ul>


Anhui’s new VBP included OTC TCM for the first time, which poses a big challenge to the pricing autonomy of CR Sanjiu. This makes Sanjiu's acquisition of Tasly more important/urgent. 
Novo Nordisk's performance has raised concerns. The capacity bottleneck for weight-loss drugs seems resolved. Could this signal that the market for weight-loss drugs is reaching its peak?

Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)’s CM310 will miss this year’s NRDL negotiations, putting the company at a disadvantage. Considering the competitive landscape, we are concerned about Keymed’s performance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>BioAge Labs launches roadshow and sets terms for an IPO: a company offers 7.5M shares at the price range of $17.00-$19.00, implying a market cap of ~$580M at the midpoint.</li>
<li>Sofinnova Venture Partners plans to purchase ~$15M worth of BioAge Labs shares in this offering. The shares are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq on September 26, 2024.</li>
<li>I view IPO valuation (post-offering EV ~$280M and runway into 2028) as attractive and expect BioAge Labs shares will outperform during first trading day next week.</li>
</ul>


BioAge Labs launches roadshow and sets terms for an IPO: a company offers 7.5M shares at the price range of $17.00-$19.00, implying a market cap of ~$580M at the midpoint.
Sofinnova Venture Partners plans to purchase ~$15M worth of BioAge Labs shares in this offering. The shares are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq on September 26, 2024.
I view IPO valuation (post-offering EV ~$280M and runway into 2028) as attractive and expect BioAge Labs shares will outperform during first trading day next week.


BioAge Labs Launches IPO Roadshow, Seeks To Raise Up To $150M on the Nasdaq Exchange

<ul>
<li>BioAge Labs, a clinical-stage biopharma company backed by a leading syndicate of biotech investors, filed to go public in the United States.</li>
<li>Anti aging and obesity biopharma startup is purely focused on chronic metabolic diseases and established partner agreements with Amgen and Eli Lilly.</li>
<li>I have a positive view of upcoming BioAge Labs IPO and expect a strong first-day return above the IPO offer price.</li>
</ul>


BioAge Labs, a clinical-stage biopharma company backed by a leading syndicate of biotech investors, filed to go public in the United States.
Anti aging and obesity biopharma startup is purely focused on chronic metabolic diseases and established partner agreements with Amgen and Eli Lilly.
I have a positive view of upcoming BioAge Labs IPO and expect a strong first-day return above the IPO offer price.


BioAge Labs IPO Preview: Investor Focus Has Turned To Azelaprag, A Huge Market Potential

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clarity-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34095:1" rel="noopener">Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU)</a> received FDA fast track designation for its lead candidate 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA for PET imaging of prostate cancer lesions. Currently, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA is in phase 3 trial.</li>
<li>If approved, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA has the potential the best-in-class diagnostic as the product has improved lesion detection capability compared to existing prostate cancer diagnostics.</li>
<li>Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represents an attractive opportunity to grow a significant radiopharmaceutical franchise in oncology and other indications.</li>
</ul>



Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) received FDA fast track designation for its lead candidate 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA for PET imaging of prostate cancer lesions. Currently, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA is in phase 3 trial.
If approved, 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA has the potential the best-in-class diagnostic as the product has improved lesion detection capability compared to existing prostate cancer diagnostics.
Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represents an attractive opportunity to grow a significant radiopharmaceutical franchise in oncology and other indications.


Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU): An Attractive Bet on Red Hot Radiopharmaceutical Field

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 24H1 product revenue exceeded RMB3.7 billion.Due to anti-corruption campaign, newly marketed PD-1s are unable to be admitted to the hospitals normally, which indirectly promotes the sales performance of sintilimab.</li>
<li>2024 full-year product revenue is estimated to reach RMB7.7 billion. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster variety in global markets, which may put Innovent’s valuation on a new level.</li>
<li>Innovent is undervalued if market value is below RMB38.5 billion.If mazdutide is able to contribute RMB10 billion sales, Innovent’s market value would reach about RMB90-100 billion (based on 5 P/S).</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 24H1 product revenue exceeded RMB3.7 billion.Due to anti-corruption campaign, newly marketed PD-1s are unable to be admitted to the hospitals normally, which indirectly promotes the sales performance of sintilimab.
2024 full-year product revenue is estimated to reach RMB7.7 billion. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster variety in global markets, which may put Innovent’s valuation on a new level.
Innovent is undervalued if market value is below RMB38.5 billion.If mazdutide is able to contribute RMB10 billion sales, Innovent’s market value would reach about RMB90-100 billion (based on 5 P/S).


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals. The Company products are sold in countries around the world. Eli Lilly products include neuroscience, endocrine, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & (LLY UN)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BioAge Labs Launches IPO Roadshow, Seeks To Raise Up To $150M on the Nasdaq Exchange

GLP-1 biopharma company BioAge Labs will price its IPO in September. I have a positive view of initial public offering and expect a strong first...

Andrei Zakharov

BioAge Labs IPO Preview: Investor Focus Has Turned To Azelaprag, A Huge Market Potential

California-based BioAge Labs files for an IPO and plans to raise capital for clinical trials of their lead compound, Azelaprag, in combination with...

Andrei Zakharov

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU): An Attractive Bet on Red Hot Radiopharmaceutical Field

Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represent an attractive opportunity to grow a...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

​Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BioAge Labs Launches IPO Roadshow, Seeks To Raise Up To $150M on the Nasdaq Exchange

GLP-1 biopharma company BioAge Labs will price its IPO in September. I have a positive view of initial public offering and expect a strong first...

Andrei Zakharov

BioAge Labs IPO Preview: Investor Focus Has Turned To Azelaprag, A Huge Market Potential

California-based BioAge Labs files for an IPO and plans to raise capital for clinical trials of their lead compound, Azelaprag, in combination with...

Andrei Zakharov

Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU): An Attractive Bet on Red Hot Radiopharmaceutical Field

Clarity’s copper platform, strong prostate pipeline and therapeutic and diagnostic efficacy data represent an attractive opportunity to grow a...

Tina Banerjee

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) 24Q2 - Valuation Upside Will Be Further Opened Up

​Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Innovent's revenue growth in 24H1 was commendable. IBI363 has the potential to be blockbuster drug in global markets. Market value to reach above...