European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sidenor’s non-binding offer: Raised to €4.8 per share for 29.8% of Talgo, with a fixed €4.15 and €0.65 contingent on financial targets in 2027 and 2028.</li>
<li>Competing interest from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons: Polish and Indian bidders are considering offers, while SEPI explores involvement to maintain Spanish control over Talgo.</li>
<li>Uncertainty persists: Regulatory approvals, financial conditions, and competing bids complicate Talgo’s ownership future, with binding offers due by February 14, 2025.</li>
</ul>


Sidenor’s non-binding offer: Raised to €4.8 per share for 29.8% of Talgo, with a fixed €4.15 and €0.65 contingent on financial targets in 2027 and 2028.
Competing interest from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons: Polish and Indian bidders are considering offers, while SEPI explores involvement to maintain Spanish control over Talgo.
Uncertainty persists: Regulatory approvals, financial conditions, and competing bids complicate Talgo’s ownership future, with binding offers due by February 14, 2025.


Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India Inc. leaders have been outperformers as compared to global peers on the back of strong ROE and EPS growth over the years.</li>
<li>India Inc has a higher % of companies with better RoE than the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Key takeaways for investors: Avoid macro noise, focus on fundamentals with peer comparison</li>
</ul>


India Inc. leaders have been outperformers as compared to global peers on the back of strong ROE and EPS growth over the years.
India Inc has a higher % of companies with better RoE than the rest of the world.
Key takeaways for investors: Avoid macro noise, focus on fundamentals with peer comparison


Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

<ul>
<li>According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applus-services-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21249:1" rel="noopener">Applus Services SA (APPS SM)</a> share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.</li>
<li>There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.</li>
<li>At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.</li>
</ul>


According to Expansion, Amber Equity (I Squared/TDR consortium vehicle), has signal its readiness to counteroffer between €10.65-€11 per Applus Services SA (APPS SM) share and drop minimum acceptance condition to 50.01%.
There are three scenarios now: Amber withdraws (unlikely), final sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at the highest offer price, the latter seems increasingly likely considering similar past situations.
At current market prices, IRR by year 8 would be 13.3%. The bidders must indeed be contemplating M&amp;A and economies of scale to boost returns.


iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Italy

Enel SpA is a multinational power company and an integrated operator in the electricity and gas sectors, with a special focus on  Europe and Latin America. The company is active in the generation and distribution of energy from conventional and renewable sources. It also offers integrated solutions for electricity and gas products.

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Enel SpA (ENEL IM)

Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

Sidenor raises offer for 29.8% of Talgo, but faces competition from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons. Uncertainty looms over ownership future with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

Indian companies have outperformed global peers with strong ROE and EPS growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and peer...

Nimish Maheshwari

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

​Sidenor raises offer for 29.8% of Talgo, but faces competition from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons. Uncertainty looms over ownership future with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

​Indian companies have outperformed global peers with strong ROE and EPS growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and peer...

Nimish Maheshwari

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Three Scenarios in a Bidding Battle

​Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Sidenor raises offer for 29.8% of Talgo, but faces competition from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons. Uncertainty looms over ownership future with...

Indian companies have outperformed global peers with strong ROE and EPS growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and peer...

Amber Equity is ready to counteroffer for Applus Services shares. It is increasingly likely a sealed envelope auction or splitting the bounty at...