Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

MD, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Set-Up and scale: 245 SLBs face 2025 KPI tests; applying a 19% 2024 miss rate implies ~50 step-ups of ~25 bps, worth ~20–60 bps PV. &gt;$80bn notional, heaviest in Q4.</li>
<li>
Trade design, credit and equity: Pre-position where slippage exists and no pre-test calls; run structure pairs; trade post-print drift; for equities, SLB misses flag delivery shortfalls and funding-cost creep.</li>
<li>
Why the market is inefficient: ESG KPIs hide in footnotes and annexes, overlooked by analysts. Verification lags and slow vendor updates delay repricing, so step-up structures stay mis-weighted and mispriced.</li>
</ul>



Set-Up and scale: 245 SLBs face 2025 KPI tests; applying a 19% 2024 miss rate implies ~50 step-ups of ~25 bps, worth ~20–60 bps PV. &gt;$80bn notional, heaviest in Q4.

Trade design, credit and equity: Pre-position where slippage exists and no pre-test calls; run structure pairs; trade post-print drift; for equities, SLB misses flag delivery shortfalls and funding-cost creep.

Why the market is inefficient: ESG KPIs hide in footnotes and annexes, overlooked by analysts. Verification lags and slow vendor updates delay repricing, so step-up structures stay mis-weighted and mispriced.


SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  </li>
<li>While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  </li>
<li>The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.</li>
</ul>


Indian equities have delivered envious returns and consistently rewarded shareholders, showcasing superior per share earnings growth and a high number of firms with strong Return on Equity.  
While GDP grows robustly (projected 6.3% FY25, 6.4% 2026), earnings growth, robust household consumption (7.1% CAGR over 34 years), and increasing investments are key drivers.  
The FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential 12-15% Nifty returns driven by tailwinds, but current valuations and global risks necessitate a careful approach.


Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sidenor’s non-binding offer: Raised to €4.8 per share for 29.8% of Talgo, with a fixed €4.15 and €0.65 contingent on financial targets in 2027 and 2028.</li>
<li>Competing interest from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons: Polish and Indian bidders are considering offers, while SEPI explores involvement to maintain Spanish control over Talgo.</li>
<li>Uncertainty persists: Regulatory approvals, financial conditions, and competing bids complicate Talgo’s ownership future, with binding offers due by February 14, 2025.</li>
</ul>


Sidenor’s non-binding offer: Raised to €4.8 per share for 29.8% of Talgo, with a fixed €4.15 and €0.65 contingent on financial targets in 2027 and 2028.
Competing interest from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons: Polish and Indian bidders are considering offers, while SEPI explores involvement to maintain Spanish control over Talgo.
Uncertainty persists: Regulatory approvals, financial conditions, and competing bids complicate Talgo’s ownership future, with binding offers due by February 14, 2025.


Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

<ul>
<li>India Inc. leaders have been outperformers as compared to global peers on the back of strong ROE and EPS growth over the years.</li>
<li>India Inc has a higher % of companies with better RoE than the rest of the world.</li>
<li>Key takeaways for investors: Avoid macro noise, focus on fundamentals with peer comparison</li>
</ul>


India Inc. leaders have been outperformers as compared to global peers on the back of strong ROE and EPS growth over the years.
India Inc has a higher % of companies with better RoE than the rest of the world.
Key takeaways for investors: Avoid macro noise, focus on fundamentals with peer comparison


Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

Italy

Enel SpA is a multinational power company and an integrated operator in the electricity and gas sectors, with a special focus on  Europe and Latin America. The company is active in the generation and distribution of energy from conventional and renewable sources. It also offers integrated solutions for electricity and gas products.

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Enel SpA (ENEL IM)

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

SLBs hide mispriced, time-stamped options. In 2025, €80B in bonds face KPI tests. Many will fail. Few are priced for it. Dislocation equals alpha...

EC

Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

Sidenor raises offer for 29.8% of Talgo, but faces competition from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons. Uncertainty looms over ownership future with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

Indian companies have outperformed global peers with strong ROE and EPS growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and peer...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

SLBs in 2025: Where Step-Ups Create Event-Driven Alpha

SLBs hide mispriced, time-stamped options. In 2025, €80B in bonds face KPI tests. Many will fail. Few are priced for it. Dislocation equals alpha...

EC

Can India’s Equity Outperformance Last?

​Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Nimish Maheshwari

Talgo Acquisition: Sidenor’s Bid and Competitive Landscape

​Sidenor raises offer for 29.8% of Talgo, but faces competition from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons. Uncertainty looms over ownership future with...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Chartered Insights: Why Indian Businesses Outperform: A Data-Driven Perspective

​Indian companies have outperformed global peers with strong ROE and EPS growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and peer...

Nimish Maheshwari

Indian equities have delivered strong returns with high EPS and RoE, driven by robust GDP & consumption. FY26 outlook is cautiously optimistic,...

Sidenor raises offer for 29.8% of Talgo, but faces competition from Pesa and Jupiter Wagons. Uncertainty looms over ownership future with...

Indian companies have outperformed global peers with strong ROE and EPS growth, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and peer...