Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110</li>
<li>Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.</li>
<li>This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials</li>
</ul>


As discussed in our previous Int'l Compass (June 29, 2023), we are bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110
Bullish developments have continued: DXY breaking below $101-$101.50, RS bottoming for small-caps, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) 1+ year breakout above $50, Italy's FTSE MIB breaking above multi-year resistance at 28,100.
This is only further evidence supporting our bullish outlook. We are getting the breakout above 4400-4415 on the EURO STOXX 50 that we've been expecting. Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials


Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.</li>
<li>The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.</li>
<li>Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/en/about/ir/management/mediumterm/pdf/7thmediumterm.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mid-Term Management Plan</a>. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.


<ul>
<li>In March 2022, longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.</li>
<li>A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.</li>
<li>By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.</li>
</ul>


In March 2022, longtime Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.
A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.
By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.


Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

David Blennerhassett

Acotec Scientific Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%, giving an average for 2022 of 41%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

Japan

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

Bullish Developments Continue; MSCI ACWI Ex-US 1-Yr Breakout; Buys in Energy, Materials, Financials

We remain bullish on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93, targeting $110; Bullish developments continue: $DXY below $101.50, small...

Vermilion Research

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A 2022 Roundup: Bigtincan, St Barbara/Genesis, Acotec, Conexio, ENEOS, Nidec OKK

For the month of December, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$6bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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