Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma in the past week. 
Key updates took place for: OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: OZ Minerals, Warrego, Shandong Fengxiang, Toyo Construction

<ul>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a>,  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. </li>
<li>Game on as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>'s "superior" scrip proposal. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. </li>
</ul>


For OZ Minerals (OZL AU),  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. 
Game on as Warrego Energy (WGO AU) shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against Strike Energy (STX AU)'s "superior" scrip proposal. 

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +1.5%. Reflex US Rally post recent sell-off. Energy, Industrials, Tech lead in the Beta rally; Cons Confidence BTE; Nike +12% rpt inspires; Micron -ve after hrs</li>
<li>JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132  (for now); BOJ related/JGB  rates aside dominate narrative;  INBOUND tourists return;  Decarb spend to accelerate; Debt rating D/G for Rakuten</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Yōkoso!  Japan. The November tourist numbers saw a doubling MoM to 934,500 visitors. However, the Chinese visitors are not here yet. It likely takes some time...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +1.5%. Reflex US Rally post recent sell-off. Energy, Industrials, Tech lead in the Beta rally; Cons Confidence BTE; Nike +12% rpt inspires; Micron -ve after hrs
JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132  (for now); BOJ related/JGB  rates aside dominate narrative;  INBOUND tourists return;  Decarb spend to accelerate; Debt rating D/G for Rakuten
DAILY NUGGET: Yōkoso!  Japan. The November tourist numbers saw a doubling MoM to 934,500 visitors. However, the Chinese visitors are not here yet. It likely takes some time...


Good Morning Japan |Stocks (Finally) Catch a Break; Cyclicals Rebound; And..we Resume in 2023 !

Travis Lundy

Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a> and subsidiary JX Nippon Mining &amp; Metals Corporation announced today it would buy out minorities in miner and refiner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-elec-wire-cable" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Elec Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer comes at a 74% premium for their 37% sub. 5% off a 2yr high, 10% off a 20-year high. This is likely to be a "done deal". </li>
<li>JX probably starts with ~55% in the bag out of the 66.7% minimum. But the tender doesn't start for ~ 6 months. Separately, importantly, there is a precedent here.</li>
</ul>



ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) and subsidiary JX Nippon Mining &amp; Metals Corporation announced today it would buy out minorities in miner and refiner Tatsuta Elec Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP). 
The Tender Offer comes at a 74% premium for their 37% sub. 5% off a 2yr high, 10% off a 20-year high. This is likely to be a "done deal". 
JX probably starts with ~55% in the bag out of the 66.7% minimum. But the tender doesn't start for ~ 6 months. Separately, importantly, there is a precedent here.


ENEOS to Buy Out Tatsuta Electric (5809) At 74% Premium

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Japan

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

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ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: OZ Minerals, Warrego, Shandong Fengxiang, Toyo Construction

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

The silly season is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Good Morning Japan |Stocks (Finally) Catch a Break; Cyclicals Rebound; And..we Resume in 2023 !

JAPAN: Futs flat vs Cash. USDJPY supported at ¥132; INBOUND tourists return; Decarb spend to accelerate - we see this as the BIG THEME FOR 2023...

Mark Chadwick

ENEOS to Buy Out Tatsuta Electric (5809) At 74% Premium

ENEOS bought into 32% of Tatsuta Electric (5809) in 2018. Tatsuta bought shares back. Now ENEOS sub JX Metal Mining is buying out Tatsuta at a 74%...

Travis Lundy

Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong,...

Vermilion Research

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