Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>'s Tender offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>'s Scheme, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jeisys-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36766:1" rel="noopener">Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)</a>'s delisting offer. Bain also approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor (BAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helios-techno-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13934:1" rel="noopener">Helios Techno (6927 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week: Fancl (4921 JP)'s Tender offer, A8 New Media (800 HK)'s Scheme, and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)'s delisting offer. Bain also approached Bapcor (BAP AU).
Key updates took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Alumina (AWC AU), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Helios Techno (6927 JP), and Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jx-advanced-metals-5016-jp-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:176683" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, margin pressure on the non-focus business and medium-to-long-term targets will likely disappoint.</li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.
In JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, margin pressure on the non-focus business and medium-to-long-term targets will likely disappoint.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.  </li>
<li>JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>. After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.   </li>
<li>The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage. </li>
</ul>



JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is a global leader in the semiconductor and ICT materials sector. It is seeking to raise up to US$2.6 billion.  
JXAM is a wholly owned subsidiary of ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP). After the listing, it is expected to become an equity-method affiliate of ENEOS.   
The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and low leverage. 


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At first glance, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.</li>
<li>The aftermath of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. </li>
<li>Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


At first glance, the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.
The aftermath of China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. 
Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>In August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.</li>
<li>Everyone had expected a delay, but the stock fell. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further upset. But Ibiden and tech are rebounding.</li>
<li>At 9% it was a raging buy;post-dip at 7% it was good. Now it's 6+%. Still wide, still interesting, still stable but year-end path dependency... So I still like Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


In August, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.
Everyone had expected a delay, but the stock fell. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further upset. But Ibiden and tech are rebounding.
At 9% it was a raging buy;post-dip at 7% it was good. Now it's 6+%. Still wide, still interesting, still stable but year-end path dependency... So I still like Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

Japan

TATSUTA ELECTRIC WIRE AND CABLE CO., LTD. manufactures wires and cables. The Company's products include power cables, optic fiber cables and its related devices, bonding wires, and water leakage detection systems.  Tatsuta Wire & Cable also produces environmentally friendly cables.

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Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on extensive proforma adjustments, the non-focus business remaining the largest profit contributor, and medium-to-long-term...

Arun George

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on its leading market position, focus businesses’ improving performance, improving profitability, shift to cash generation, and...

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

The aftermath of the China TCM deal break has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event...

Arun George

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

The periodic Shinko Electric Arb Update still says buy dips and again says Ibiden is a buy. Go figure. It's a good risk here. We still have four...

Travis Lundy

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