Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.</li>
<li>Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">XLP</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">XLK</a>.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), S&amp;P400 Index and S&amp;P600 Index will be announced after market close on Friday.
The conclusions of the market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover should also be announced.
Changes in the index weighting methodology will result in a round-trip trade of US$35bn across the Select Sector indices. The largest turnover is in the XLP and XLK.


Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI gained 0.25% for the week but reversed sharply from its midweek highs as Saudi Arabia restored alternative export flows and fears of a prolonged supply loss eased.</li>
<li>Options volatility and skew fell after the initial supply shock, while managed money cut net longs, pointing to more cautious positioning as WTI slipped below USD 100.</li>
<li>Energy ETFs lagged crude despite selective AUM support, while Halliburton enters Q3 with North American pricing, Middle East activity and Venezuela as key catalysts.</li>
</ul>


WTI gained 0.25% for the week but reversed sharply from its midweek highs as Saudi Arabia restored alternative export flows and fears of a prolonged supply loss eased.
Options volatility and skew fell after the initial supply shock, while managed money cut net longs, pointing to more cautious positioning as WTI slipped below USD 100.
Energy ETFs lagged crude despite selective AUM support, while Halliburton enters Q3 with North American pricing, Middle East activity and Venezuela as key catalysts.


Energy Weekly (W/E 18/Sep): WTI Reverses, Risk Premium Unwinds, Halliburton Tests Pricing Power

<ul>
<li>WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.</li>
<li>Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.</li>
<li>Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.</li>
</ul>


WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.
Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.
Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.


Energy Weekly (W/E 4/Sep): WTI Surges on Hormuz, Options Calm, Cheniere’s Tollbooth Holds

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.</li>
<li>As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... </li>
<li>...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV</li>
</ul>


While the SPX remains bullish above 7580-7629 support, we're becoming near-term cautious on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and we remain near-term cautious on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and A.I. areas.
As discussed last week, we believe the Aug4 and Aug12 gap fills suggest more consolidation is likely; not only have the odds increased that A.I. areas test their July lows... 
...but the lower highs that have formed could be an early sign that they could break below their July lows in SOXX, CHAT, NCLD, DTCR, and EUV


Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

<ul>
<li>WTI fell 4.2% in the week ending 28/Aug despite U.S. sanctions on Iran, as recovering oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz eased the geopolitical premium.</li>
<li>Energy ETFs mostly fell with WTI, but clean energy held up, showing investors treated the sanctions-driven selloff as a short-term event risk.</li>
<li>Equinor marks a firm shift back to oil and gas, but its power strategy and state ownership still leave capital allocation questions unresolved.</li>
</ul>


WTI fell 4.2% in the week ending 28/Aug despite U.S. sanctions on Iran, as recovering oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz eased the geopolitical premium.
Energy ETFs mostly fell with WTI, but clean energy held up, showing investors treated the sanctions-driven selloff as a short-term event risk.
Equinor marks a firm shift back to oil and gas, but its power strategy and state ownership still leave capital allocation questions unresolved.


Energy Weekly (W/E 28/Aug): WTI Slid on Sanctions, Hormuz Reignites, Equinor Bets on Hydrocarbons

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Select Sector Indices - Updated Flows as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$35bn

US$300bn tracks the Select Sector Indices. Implementation of proposed changes will set off a US$35bn trade. Apple could be bought by multiple...

Brian Freitas

Energy Weekly (W/E 18/Sep): WTI Reverses, Risk Premium Unwinds, Halliburton Tests Pricing Power

WTI reversed sharply after its midweek spike as Saudi export concerns eased, while cautious positioning and weak energy equities shaped the market.

Mint Finance

Energy Weekly (W/E 4/Sep): WTI Surges on Hormuz, Options Calm, Cheniere’s Tollbooth Holds

WTI’s Hormuz driven rally strengthened bullish positioning, while Cheniere continues to expand contracted LNG capacity ahead of a potentially...

Mint Finance

Warning Signs; Buying Energy and Health Care; Still Cautious on QQQ and Now Also IWM

Warning Signs $RSP; Remain Overweight and Buy Energy $XLE and Health Care $XLV; Still Cautious on $QQQ and Now Also $IWM; Downgrading Utilities...

Vermilion Research

Energy Weekly (W/E 28/Aug): WTI Slid on Sanctions, Hormuz Reignites, Equinor Bets on Hydrocarbons

WTI reversed a slide from last week as Hormuz tensions resurfaced over the weekend, energy equities diverged, and Equinor doubled down on oil and...

Mint Finance

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