Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022</li>
<li>Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.</li>
<li>Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight


Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Gridwiz is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in June. Gridwiz focuses on the power demand resource management (DR) business, involving utilities, energy storage system, and solar power.</li>
<li>The IPO price range is from 34,000 won to 40,000 won. The IPO offering amount ranges from 47.6 billion won to 56 billion won. </li>
<li>According to the bankers' valuation, the market capitalization post listing is expected to reach 285 billion won to 335 billion won. </li>
</ul>


Gridwiz is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in June. Gridwiz focuses on the power demand resource management (DR) business, involving utilities, energy storage system, and solar power.
The IPO price range is from 34,000 won to 40,000 won. The IPO offering amount ranges from 47.6 billion won to 56 billion won. 
According to the bankers' valuation, the market capitalization post listing is expected to reach 285 billion won to 335 billion won. 


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Enphase Energy, a leading provider of energy management solutions, reported its first quarter 2024 financial results.</li><li>For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of $263.3 million, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter.</li><li>The company also managed to ship approximately 1.4 million microinverters and 75.5 megawatt hours of batteries during this period, leading to a free cash flow of $41.8 million.</li></ul>

Enphase Energy, a leading provider of energy management solutions, reported its first quarter 2024 financial results.For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of $263.3 million, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter.The company also managed to ship approximately 1.4 million microinverters and 75.5 megawatt hours of batteries during this period, leading to a free cash flow of $41.8 million.

Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Enphase Energy Inc.'s fourth quarter 2023 financial results show a quarterly revenue of $302.6 million, a considerable shipment of 1.6 million microinverters and 80.7 megawatt hours of battery, along with a generation of free cash flow of $15.4 million.</li><li>The company also achieved a reduction of $147 million in Q4, and met their goal of reducing channel inventory.</li><li>The quarter saw a 50% gross margin, 29% operating expenses, and 22% operating income.</li></ul>

Enphase Energy Inc.'s fourth quarter 2023 financial results show a quarterly revenue of $302.6 million, a considerable shipment of 1.6 million microinverters and 80.7 megawatt hours of battery, along with a generation of free cash flow of $15.4 million.The company also achieved a reduction of $147 million in Q4, and met their goal of reducing channel inventory.The quarter saw a 50% gross margin, 29% operating expenses, and 22% operating income.

Enphase Energy: The 4th-Gen Battery Breakthrough You Can't Miss! - Major Drivers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

United States

Enphase Energy Inc. manufactures solar power solutions. The Company offers solutions to increase productivity and reliability of solar modules.

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Enphase Energy (ENPH US)

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth $IWF; Three May $SPX Upside Gaps Unfilled = Bullish; Expect supports at...

Vermilion Research

Gridwiz IPO Preview

Gridwiz is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in June. Gridwiz focuses on the power demand resource management (DR) business, involving...

Douglas Kim

Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? - Major Drivers

Enphase Energy, a leading provider of energy management solutions, reported its first quarter 2024 financial results. For the quarter ending March...

Baptista Research

Enphase Energy: The 4th-Gen Battery Breakthrough You Can't Miss! - Major Drivers

Enphase Energy Inc.'s fourth quarter 2023 financial results show a quarterly revenue of $302.6 million, a considerable shipment of 1.6 million...

Baptista Research

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

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