Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on the Communications Sector as we are seeing steady relative strength ranking (RSR) improvements over the last couple of months. At the Group level, we highlight select smid-cap Casinos &amp; Gaming stocks. Finally, India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is breaking out to new all-time highs as RS bullishly inflects, we highlight actionable stocks.

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on the Communications Sector as we are seeing steady relative strength ranking (RSR) improvements over the last couple of months. At the Group level, we highlight select smid-cap Casinos &amp; Gaming stocks. Finally, India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is breaking out to new all-time highs as RS bullishly inflects, we highlight actionable stocks.

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

By acquiring Ladbrokes Coral (LCL), GVC will become a FTSE 100 global gaming business, with pro forma FY18e revenues of £3.4bn. With strong brands, diversified revenues and a superior technology, GVC is well positioned to benefit from increased scale and we anticipate the deal to be highly accretive, due to the £100m+ cost synergies. At this stage, there are still many moving parts to our pro forma estimates, with particular uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Triennial Review and ultimate FOBT stake limits. Irrespective of the outcome, strong FCF should rapidly drive down leverage, which peaks at 3.2x for a £20 FOBT scenario (2.7x for £2). Assuming a £20 stake limit, GVC trades at 11.2x EV/EBITDA and 13.3x P/E for FY19e, a c 5% and 19% discount to Paddy Power Betfair (PPB).

By acquiring Ladbrokes Coral (LCL), GVC will become a FTSE 100 global gaming business, with pro forma FY18e revenues of £3.4bn. With strong brands, diversified revenues and a superior technology, GVC is well positioned to benefit from increased scale and we anticipate the deal to be highly accretive, due to the £100m+ cost synergies. At this stage, there are still many moving parts to our pro forma estimates, with particular uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Triennial Review and ultimate FOBT stake limits. Irrespective of the outcome, strong FCF should rapidly drive down leverage, which peaks at 3.2x for a £20 FOBT scenario (2.7x for £2). Assuming a £20 stake limit, GVC trades at 11.2x EV/EBITDA and 13.3x P/E for FY19e, a c 5% and 19% discount to Paddy Power Betfair (PPB).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

GVC&rsquo;s proposed acquisition of Ladbrokes Coral (LCL) will create a leading global multi-brand gaming business, with revenues of c &pound;3.3bn. Completion is expected in late Q1/early Q218. 90% of the enlarged group&rsquo;s revenues will be derived from locally regulated and/or taxed markets. As witnessed by the successful integration of bwin, GVC is well positioned to deliver material synergies and, regardless of the outcome of the triennial review, the company expects double-digit EPS accretion after the first year. GVC has reported consistently impressive results throughout 2017 and its shares trade appropriately towards the top end of the peer group, at 12.8x EV/EBITDA and 16.4x P/E for 2018e. We introduce new forecasts to reflect the disposal of the Turkish business.

GVC&rsquo;s proposed acquisition of Ladbrokes Coral (LCL) will create a leading global multi-brand gaming business, with revenues of c &pound;3.3bn. Completion is expected in late Q1/early Q218. 90% of the enlarged group&rsquo;s revenues will be derived from locally regulated and/or taxed markets. As witnessed by the successful integration of bwin, GVC is well positioned to deliver material synergies and, regardless of the outcome of the triennial review, the company expects double-digit EPS accretion after the first year. GVC has reported consistently impressive results throughout 2017 and its shares trade appropriately towards the top end of the peer group, at 12.8x EV/EBITDA and 16.4x P/E for 2018e. We introduce new forecasts to reflect the disposal of the Turkish business.

GVC&rsquo;s H117 results were accompanied by a bullish update for Q317 and positive future indicators. Underlying 20% daily NGR growth in Q317 (to 10 September), combined with continued synergies from the bwin acquisition, should lead to upgrades in consensus estimates. The company is ambitious and well positioned as a consolidator in the gaming industry. Accretive M&amp;A is highly likely in our view. The stock trades appropriately towards the top of its peer group, at consensus 2018e 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 12.9x PE respectively. Our forecasts are currently under review.

GVC&rsquo;s H117 results were accompanied by a bullish update for Q317 and positive future indicators. Underlying 20% daily NGR growth in Q317 (to 10 September), combined with continued synergies from the bwin acquisition, should lead to upgrades in consensus estimates. The company is ambitious and well positioned as a consolidator in the gaming industry. Accretive M&amp;A is highly likely in our view. The stock trades appropriately towards the top of its peer group, at consensus 2018e 9.4x EV/EBITDA and 12.9x PE respectively. Our forecasts are currently under review.

United Kingdom

Entain plc is a sports betting and gambling company operating in the online and retail sector. The Company owns brands such as Bwin, Coral, Ladbrokes, PartyPoker, and Sportingbet. Entain serves customers worldwide.

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Entain (ENT LN)

Global Strategy: Health Care Outperforming - Overweight; India Breaking Out -Add Exposure

Today's report puts a spotlight on the Health Care Sector, which is assuming a global leadership role vs. other Sectors. We also focus on...

Vermilion Research

GVC Holdings - Leaping into FTSE 100

By acquiring Ladbrokes Coral (LCL), GVC will become a FTSE 100 global gaming business, with pro forma FY18e revenues of £3.4bn. With strong brands,...

Edison Investment Research

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

GVC Holdings - A gaming powerhouse

GVC’s proposed acquisition of Ladbrokes Coral (LCL) will create a leading global multi-brand gaming business, with revenues of c £3.3bn. Completion...

Edison Investment Research

Exuding confidence - upgrades to come

GVC’s H117 results were accompanied by a bullish update for Q317 and positive future indicators. Underlying 20% daily NGR growth in Q317 (to 10...

Edison Investment Research

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