Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The relationship between Rio Tinto, the Mongolian Government and Entree Resources is in turmoil. Can the new Mongolian PM break the deadlock?</li>
<li>Despite a binding arbitration ruling in December 2024 in favor of Entree, the government of Mongolia and Rio remain in dispute on how to handle Entree's ownership position.</li>
<li>On June 6th, it was announced that Rio will have to change its mine plan for Oyu Tolgoi as there has been no agreement between Rio, Entree and the government.</li>
</ul>


The relationship between Rio Tinto, the Mongolian Government and Entree Resources is in turmoil. Can the new Mongolian PM break the deadlock?
Despite a binding arbitration ruling in December 2024 in favor of Entree, the government of Mongolia and Rio remain in dispute on how to handle Entree's ownership position.
On June 6th, it was announced that Rio will have to change its mine plan for Oyu Tolgoi as there has been no agreement between Rio, Entree and the government.


Entree Resources: Can New Mongolian Prime Minister Break Deadlock with Rio?

<ul>
<li>Late 2024 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> announced it won its arbitration against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. The vote by the three judges was unanimously in favor of Entree. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> held its investor day in early December 2024 where almost its entire growth plan for 2025-2030 is predicated on Oyu Tolgoi's (OT) performance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> is now backed into a corner to find a solution for OT's minority shareholder Entree Resources. The most logical outcome? RIO buys ETG in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Late 2024 Entree Resources (ETG CN) announced it won its arbitration against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). The vote by the three judges was unanimously in favor of Entree. 

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) held its investor day in early December 2024 where almost its entire growth plan for 2025-2030 is predicated on Oyu Tolgoi's (OT) performance.

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) is now backed into a corner to find a solution for OT's minority shareholder Entree Resources. The most logical outcome? RIO buys ETG in 2025.


Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?

<ul>
<li>The acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/filo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42545:1" rel="noopener">Filo (FIL CN)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd-832e22a7-7a1d-49cf-b992-c6347084cbf8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) could be the start of a much larger M&amp;A wave.</a>
</li>
<li>Many juniors trade at 0.1x to 0.2x NAV while transactions typically happen at 0.8x-1x NAV. Filo was acquired at 0.81x NAV so right within this range.</li>
<li>We continue to like a basket of junior copper mines to get exposure to M&amp;A copper dynamics</li>
</ul>


The acquisition of Filo (FIL CN) by Lundin Mining (LUN CN) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN) could be the start of a much larger M&amp;A wave.

Many juniors trade at 0.1x to 0.2x NAV while transactions typically happen at 0.8x-1x NAV. Filo was acquired at 0.81x NAV so right within this range.
We continue to like a basket of junior copper mines to get exposure to M&amp;A copper dynamics


Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.</li>
<li>Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.
Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?


Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

<ul>
<li>Discussions between Rio Tinto and Glencore are ongoing regarding a merger of the two commodity giants</li>
<li>The deadline for both companies to communicate is on 05/02/26. If they want to pursue a merger, a solution will need to be found for the position of Entree</li>
<li>Entree has seen its share price rally +51% YTD in anticipation of a resolution. Will it happen this time?</li>
</ul>


Discussions between Rio Tinto and Glencore are ongoing regarding a merger of the two commodity giants
The deadline for both companies to communicate is on 05/02/26. If they want to pursue a merger, a solution will need to be found for the position of Entree
Entree has seen its share price rally +51% YTD in anticipation of a resolution. Will it happen this time?


Canada

Entree Resources Ltd. operates as a mining company. The Company develops and discovers gold and copper resources. Entree Resources is currently conducting exploration on its mineral concessions in Mongolia.

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Entree Resources (ETG CN)

Entree Resources: Can New Mongolian Prime Minister Break Deadlock with Rio?

Tensions between Rio Tinto, Mongolian Government, and Entree Resources over ownership at Oyu Tolgoi mine continue despite arbitration ruling. New...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?

Entree Resources wins arbitration against Rio Tinto, leading to speculation that Rio may acquire Entree in 2025 due to reliance on Oyu Tolgoi's...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

The acquisition of Filo by Lundin Mining and BHP Group could signal the beginning of a significant M&A wave in the mining industry, with potential...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Entree: Is the End Game Getting Closer?

Rio Tinto and Glencore in talks for potential merger, deadline approaching with Entree's position at stake and share price up 51% YTD. Will a...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Entree Resources: Can New Mongolian Prime Minister Break Deadlock with Rio?

​Tensions between Rio Tinto, Mongolian Government, and Entree Resources over ownership at Oyu Tolgoi mine continue despite arbitration ruling. New...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto Loses Arbitration Against Entree Resources; Now What?

​Entree Resources wins arbitration against Rio Tinto, leading to speculation that Rio may acquire Entree in 2025 due to reliance on Oyu Tolgoi's...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

​The acquisition of Filo by Lundin Mining and BHP Group could signal the beginning of a significant M&A wave in the mining industry, with potential...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Entree: Is the End Game Getting Closer?

​Rio Tinto and Glencore in talks for potential merger, deadline approaching with Entree's position at stake and share price up 51% YTD. Will a...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Tensions between Rio Tinto, Mongolian Government, and Entree Resources over ownership at Oyu Tolgoi mine continue despite arbitration ruling. New...

Entree Resources wins arbitration against Rio Tinto, leading to speculation that Rio may acquire Entree in 2025 due to reliance on Oyu Tolgoi's...

The acquisition of Filo by Lundin Mining and BHP Group could signal the beginning of a significant M&A wave in the mining industry, with potential...

Rio Tinto and Glencore in talks for potential merger, deadline approaching with Entree's position at stake and share price up 51% YTD. Will a...