HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Luxshare Precision Industry / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We consider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd-3f59eaa1-da7f-4d9b-add0-c8efccfee0d5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50296:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (2475 HK)</a>'s H-share IPO not expensive, especially given its gigantic market capitalisation which will attract interests. </li>
<li>Its 3-year EPS CAGR is forecast at 19.2%, and its position as a local and global leader in precision intelligent manufacturing solutions justify a premium to peers. </li>
<li>The IPO price is set at 17.6% discount to the A-share. It can at least trade on 10% discount, translating into a price of HK$69.12, or 9.2% upside.</li>
</ul>


We consider Luxshare Precision Industry (2475 HK)'s H-share IPO not expensive, especially given its gigantic market capitalisation which will attract interests. 
Its 3-year EPS CAGR is forecast at 19.2%, and its position as a local and global leader in precision intelligent manufacturing solutions justify a premium to peers. 
The IPO price is set at 17.6% discount to the A-share. It can at least trade on 10% discount, translating into a price of HK$69.12, or 9.2% upside.


Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Luxshare Precision Industry / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12310:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)</a> could raise up to HK$27.9bn (US$3.6bn) in its H-share offering if the Overallotment Option is exercised.</li>
<li>The cornerstone investor allocation will be around 42% of the maximum offering size and those shares will be locked up for 6 months. Fast entry index inclusion probability is small.</li>
<li>The H-shares are priced at a 17.2% discount to the A-shares last close and that is tighter than other large issues. Stock Connect from the open on 6 August.</li>
</ul>



Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) could raise up to HK$27.9bn (US$3.6bn) in its H-share offering if the Overallotment Option is exercised.
The cornerstone investor allocation will be around 42% of the maximum offering size and those shares will be locked up for 6 months. Fast entry index inclusion probability is small.
The H-shares are priced at a 17.2% discount to the A-shares last close and that is tighter than other large issues. Stock Connect from the open on 6 August.


Luxshare Precision (2475 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for US$3.6bn Offering; Tighter H/A Discount

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 100 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL, Longi Green, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, SATELLITE CHEMICAL, HENGLI PETROCHEMICAL, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 100 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL, Longi Green, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, SATELLITE CHEMICAL, HENGLI PETROCHEMICAL, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, YUNNAN ALUMINIUM.


CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Jun): POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD411,555m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, PING AN INSURANCE, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, CHONGQING ZONGSHEN POWER MACHINERY, ZIJIN MINING.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jun 26th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD411,555m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, PING AN INSURANCE, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, CHONGQING ZONGSHEN POWER MACHINERY, ZIJIN MINING.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 26th): CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, PING AN INSURANCE, ZIJIN MINING

Crealights Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crealights-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49401:1" rel="noopener">Crealights Technology (1191 HK)</a>, an optoelectronic interconnection product provider, targets to raise HK$1.4bn from IPO. Its growth is solid, as revenue surged 6x in FY23-25.  </li>
<li>For the next three years, it will ride on AI spending, with revenue growing by a CAGR of 44.3%. However, heavy investments will sustain its losses.</li>
<li>At 4.5x FY26 P/S, the IPO is inexpensive relative to peers. It justifies a 20% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a>, or 5.1x P/S, implying at least 15% upside. </li>
</ul>



Crealights Technology (1191 HK), an optoelectronic interconnection product provider, targets to raise HK$1.4bn from IPO. Its growth is solid, as revenue surged 6x in FY23-25.  
For the next three years, it will ride on AI spending, with revenue growing by a CAGR of 44.3%. However, heavy investments will sustain its losses.
At 4.5x FY26 P/S, the IPO is inexpensive relative to peers. It justifies a 20% discount to CIG Shanghai (6166 HK), or 5.1x P/S, implying at least 15% upside. 


Crealights Technology (1191 HK) IPO: Lighting Up

China

Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd.  designs and manufactures communication components.  The Company sells a variety of optical transceiver modules.  Eoptolink Technology sells products around the world.

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Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH)

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for US$3.6bn Offering; Tighter H/A Discount

Luxshare's H-share offering is a 22.2% discount to the A-shares last close and the company could raise US$3.6bn if the overallotment option is...

Brian Freitas

CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Jun): POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL

We analyzed CSI 100's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in POLY DEVELOPMENTS (600048 CH), CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL (600028...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Crealights Technology (1191 HK) IPO: Lighting Up

Crealights aims to raise HK$1.4bn from IPO, showing strong growth potential. Despite losses forecast for the next 3 years, it is priced at 4.5x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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Luxshare Precision (2475 HK) IPO: We See Some Potential Upside

​Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luxshare Precision (2475 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for US$3.6bn Offering; Tighter H/A Discount

Luxshare's H-share offering is a 22.2% discount to the A-shares last close and the company could raise US$3.6bn if the overallotment option is...

Brian Freitas

CSI 100 Index Earning Revision (Jun): POLY DEVELOPMENTS, CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL

We analyzed CSI 100's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in POLY DEVELOPMENTS (600048 CH), CHINA PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL (600028...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 26th): CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, PING AN INSURANCE, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted CHINA MINSHENG BANKING (600016 CH), PING AN INSURANCE (601318...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Crealights Technology (1191 HK) IPO: Lighting Up

​Crealights aims to raise HK$1.4bn from IPO, showing strong growth potential. Despite losses forecast for the next 3 years, it is priced at 4.5x...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Luxshare Precision Industry's H-share IPO is attractively priced with strong growth potential and a discount to A-share, offering upside potential.

Crealights aims to raise HK$1.4bn from IPO, showing strong growth potential. Despite losses forecast for the next 3 years, it is priced at 4.5x...