Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>On April 30th, a federal judge barred Apple from impeding external payment links in iOS apps and prohibited charging commissions on purchases made outside of Apple.</li><li>Five years later, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers has ruled that Apple must let developers use external payments without fees—effectively unbundling App Store billing from iOS distribution.</li><li>Stripe, with its iOS SDK and $1.4T in yearly payments volume, stands to benefit the most from $90B in App Store volume freed up by this ruling.</li></ul>

On April 30th, a federal judge barred Apple from impeding external payment links in iOS apps and prohibited charging commissions on purchases made outside of Apple.Five years later, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers has ruled that Apple must let developers use external payments without fees—effectively unbundling App Store billing from iOS distribution.Stripe, with its iOS SDK and $1.4T in yearly payments volume, stands to benefit the most from $90B in App Store volume freed up by this ruling.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.
</li>
</ul>


Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. 

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.


Tencent (700 HK) had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

<ul><li>Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year.</li><li>Generative AI was just emerging as Discord’s next big tailwind, with Midjourney projecting $200M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from their AI art generation tool built into a Discord server.</li><li>This week, Discord announced that they’re moving away from their vision of building the chat app for every community, and leaning into the product-market fit they have for interactive, co-creative experiences.</li></ul>

Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year.Generative AI was just emerging as Discord’s next big tailwind, with Midjourney projecting $200M in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from their AI art generation tool built into a Discord server.This week, Discord announced that they’re moving away from their vision of building the chat app for every community, and leaning into the product-market fit they have for interactive, co-creative experiences.

<ul><li>Now, revenue growth at Epic Games is re-accelerating.</li><li>Between December 2018 and October 2023, Fortnite’s monthly active users (MAUs) declined from 80M to roughly 35M before jumping to an all-time high of 100M in November 2023 after the re-release of Fortnite’s original "OG" map.</li><li>Thanks to Fortnite’s turnaround, Sacra estimates that Epic Games is on track to grow revenue by 30% to $5.7B in 2024.</li></ul>

Now, revenue growth at Epic Games is re-accelerating.Between December 2018 and October 2023, Fortnite’s monthly active users (MAUs) declined from 80M to roughly 35M before jumping to an all-time high of 100M in November 2023 after the re-release of Fortnite’s original "OG" map.Thanks to Fortnite’s turnaround, Sacra estimates that Epic Games is on track to grow revenue by 30% to $5.7B in 2024.

<ul><li>Fortnite has made Epic Games $27B of high-margin revenue off in-app purchases, but growth has now gone negative with falling engagement and Apple cutting Fortnite out of its walled garden.</li><li>Epic Games generated $5.6B of revenue in 2018, with $5B of that from Fortnite, but Sacra estimates that revenue fell to $5.2B in 2022 as Fortnite declined in users and conversion for a 6x revenue multiple on their $31.5B valuation.</li><li>To escape the hit-driven dynamics of gaming, Epic Games is now turning Fortnite into the centerpiece of a Roblox-like metaverse, with expanded tools for creators to build Fortnite worlds that are cross-compatible with other experiences within the Epic Games catalog.</li></ul>

Fortnite has made Epic Games $27B of high-margin revenue off in-app purchases, but growth has now gone negative with falling engagement and Apple cutting Fortnite out of its walled garden.Epic Games generated $5.6B of revenue in 2018, with $5B of that from Fortnite, but Sacra estimates that revenue fell to $5.2B in 2022 as Fortnite declined in users and conversion for a 6x revenue multiple on their $31.5B valuation.To escape the hit-driven dynamics of gaming, Epic Games is now turning Fortnite into the centerpiece of a Roblox-like metaverse, with expanded tools for creators to build Fortnite worlds that are cross-compatible with other experiences within the Epic Games catalog.

Epic Games: The $4B/year Metaverse Company

United States

Epic Games, Inc. develops video games. The Company designs, produces, and retails high-end action games for consoles, personal computers, and mobile devices. Epic Games serves clients worldwide.

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Epic Games (748448Z US)

Stripe Vs Apple

TL;DR: On April 30th, a federal judge barred Apple from impeding external payment links in iOS apps and prohibited charging commissions on...

Sacra

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Mainland investors purchased a record amount of HK shares during 2024. GDS Holding announced that it may list its China assets in a REIT. Tencent...

David Mudd

Discord At $600M/year

TL;DR: Sacra estimates that Discord hit $600M in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) at the end of 2023, up 35% year-over-year. After attempting to...

Sacra

Fortnite At 120M MAUs

When we wrote about Epic Games in November, we estimated their 2023 revenue at $4.2B, down 19% from $5.2B in 2022, because of declining engagement...

Sacra

Epic Games: The $4B/year Metaverse Company

TL;DR: Fortnite has made Epic Games $27B of high-margin revenue off in-app purchases, but growth has now gone negative with falling engagement and...

Sacra

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