Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>Renewables as extractive industries: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are extractive industries that depend on the “grade” of the natural resource to achieve sustainability, a three-dimensional concept that includes economics, social acceptance, and environmental considerations.</li><li>The problem of low-grade resources: Deploying renewables in areas where the resource grade is too low imposes macro-level costs on the electrical system and reduces its economic and environmental sustainability through the inefficient deployment of limited resources.</li><li>The problem of high-grade resources: Deploying too many renewables in areas where the resource grade is high causes value deflation, lowers the revenue of the projects, and impairs micro-level sustainability.</li></ul></div>

Renewables as extractive industries: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are extractive industries that depend on the “grade” of the natural resource to achieve sustainability, a three-dimensional concept that includes economics, social acceptance, and environmental considerations.The problem of low-grade resources: Deploying renewables in areas where the resource grade is too low imposes macro-level costs on the electrical system and reduces its economic and environmental sustainability through the inefficient deployment of limited resources.The problem of high-grade resources: Deploying too many renewables in areas where the resource grade is high causes value deflation, lowers the revenue of the projects, and impairs micro-level sustainability.

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.</li>
<li>Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.</li>
<li>Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.
Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.
Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.


War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

<ul>
<li>Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.</li>
<li>We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.</li>
</ul>


Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.


Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Norway

Equinor ASA operates as an energy company. The Company develops oil, gas, wind, and solar energy projects, as well as focuses on offshore operations and exploration services. Equinor serves customers worldwide.

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Equinor ASA (EQNR US)

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Renewable Energy And "Grade"

Renewables as extractive industries: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are extractive industries that depend on the “grade” of the...

Massif Capital Research

War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Conflicts are intensifying in the Red Sea. US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis vows to respond and asserts...

Mint Finance

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

We're constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI is above $93 support, however, the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX is breaking above 4.35%...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

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