European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.</li>
<li>Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.</li>
<li>Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.</li>
</ul>


With Esseco gone, Bondalti’s €3.505/share bid is the last one standing — but CNMC Phase II remedies and 27% minority opposition keep the deal far from a done reaction.
Our €4.40/share control value could tip the Board toward acceptance, closing the 75% threshold gap and delivering IRRs that make the deal chemistry far more attractive to arb capital.
Regulatory timing points to a late-Oct to early-Dec settlement window; remedy talks could delay. IRR skew remains compelling if Bondalti sweetens, but downside risk sits at the €2.56 break.


Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

<ul>
<li>Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.</li>
<li>Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.</li>
<li>In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders' decisions on the competing takeover offers.</li>
</ul>


Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders' decisions on the competing takeover offers.


Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

<ul>
<li>The Spanish government has approved Esseco's bid for Ercros, after previously approving Bondalti's offer in June, signaling a significant step in the ongoing takeover battle for the chemical company.</li>
<li>The next step lies with the CNMV, Spain’s stock market regulator, which must first approve Bondalti’s bid before considering Esseco’s. However, both bids have opposition from shareholders holding 27%.</li>
<li>Ercros is trading in line with comparables, but there's potential for bidders to improve their offers, which is likely. Gross spread to Esseco's offer is 2%. Reiterate long.</li>
</ul>


The Spanish government has approved Esseco's bid for Ercros, after previously approving Bondalti's offer in June, signaling a significant step in the ongoing takeover battle for the chemical company.
The next step lies with the CNMV, Spain’s stock market regulator, which must first approve Bondalti’s bid before considering Esseco’s. However, both bids have opposition from shareholders holding 27%.
Ercros is trading in line with comparables, but there's potential for bidders to improve their offers, which is likely. Gross spread to Esseco's offer is 2%. Reiterate long.


Esseco/Ercros: Green Light from Government

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">7&amp;I (3382 JP)</a>'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:660:1" rel="noopener">Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP)</a> is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pentamaster-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31099:1" rel="noopener">Pentamaster International (1665 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. </li>
</ul>



7&amp;I (3382 JP)'s MBO is off. Itochu has apparently not been able to agree with Ito-san on board composition/representation and management control. That the MBO is off isn't surprising.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) is sucking wind as United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels

Pentamaster International (1665 HK)'s Scheme comfortably gets up after a wild week of trading. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

Spain

Ercros SA is an industrial company focused on the manufacture and sale of chemical and pharmaceutical products. It is listed on the Spanish Stock Exchange.  The company is divided  into three areas of activity: a business strategic unit, the intermediate chemicals division, and the pharmaceuticals division. Ecros serves clients worldwide.

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Ercros (ECR SM)

Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

Esseco’s exit leaves Bondalti alone in the Ercros bid. Board buy-in likely needs €4.40/share. CNMC remedies loom; IRR skew attractive if sweetened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

CNMC launches Phase II investigations into Bondalti and Esseco's takeover bids for Ercros over competition concerns, casting doubt on acquisition...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Esseco/Ercros: Green Light from Government

The Spanish government has approved Esseco's bid for Ercros, after previously approving Bondalti's offer in June, signaling a significant step in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

Esseco’s exit leaves Bondalti alone in the Ercros bid. Board buy-in likely needs €4.40/share. CNMC remedies loom; IRR skew attractive if sweetened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

​CNMC launches Phase II investigations into Bondalti and Esseco's takeover bids for Ercros over competition concerns, casting doubt on acquisition...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Esseco/Ercros: Green Light from Government

The Spanish government has approved Esseco's bid for Ercros, after previously approving Bondalti's offer in June, signaling a significant step in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Pentamaster Int'l, T'Way Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

CNMC launches Phase II investigations into Bondalti and Esseco's takeover bids for Ercros over competition concerns, casting doubt on acquisition...