European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

Ercros: Regulatory Green Light, Shareholder Hurdles Ahead

Bondalti-Ercros: From Regulatory Clearance to Shareholder Countdown

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.</li>
<li>With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.</li>
<li>Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.</li>
</ul>


Bondalti lowered the minimum acceptance threshold to &gt;50%, materially reducing execution risk and shifting the Ercros takeover into its final phase, with regulatory approvals complete and no interloper risk.
With Ercros closing at €3.42, the remaining spread to the €3.505 cash offer is ~2.5%, reflecting a market-implied completion probability near 90% and a high-confidence, short-dated carry profile.
Base-Case settlement: early to mid-February 2026 following CNMV approval and a standard acceptance period; returns are now driven by timing rather than outcome. Liquidity remains thin and sizing discipline essential.


Bondalti-Ercros: Acceptance Risk Removed, Deal Enters Final Execution Phase