European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Bondalti-Ercros: From Regulatory Clearance to Shareholder Countdown

Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism

Esseco/Ercros: Green Light from Government

Ercros – Takeover Update and Scenario Analysis

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CNMC approval with commitments de-risks the regulatory leg, shifting focus to shareholder acceptance and the Ministry’s decision; the spread has compressed but still offers short-dated, event-driven upside.</li>
<li>Ercros’s weak H1 performance and cyclical trough distort multiples; the €3.505 offer equates to ~9x EBITDA today but nearer 6× on normalized levels, consistent with control transaction benchmarks.</li>
<li>Base-Case IRR exceeds 100% annualized if settled by December; downside anchored by €2.56 break price, while any price bump toward €4.40 adds optionality without being part of the base case.</li>
</ul>


CNMC approval with commitments de-risks the regulatory leg, shifting focus to shareholder acceptance and the Ministry’s decision; the spread has compressed but still offers short-dated, event-driven upside.
Ercros’s weak H1 performance and cyclical trough distort multiples; the €3.505 offer equates to ~9x EBITDA today but nearer 6× on normalized levels, consistent with control transaction benchmarks.
Base-Case IRR exceeds 100% annualized if settled by December; downside anchored by €2.56 break price, while any price bump toward €4.40 adds optionality without being part of the base case.


Ercros: Regulatory Green Light, Shareholder Hurdles Ahead