European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Bondalti/Ercros: Board Will Seek a Sweetening

Esseco/Ercros: Green Light from Government

Adnoc/Covestro: Fresh Takeover Negotiations and Valuation Scenarios

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.</li>
<li>Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.</li>
<li>In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders' decisions on the competing takeover offers.</li>
</ul>


Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders' decisions on the competing takeover offers.


Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism