Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> disclosed its fiscal year 2024 results, which exceeded market expectations marginally, showing YoY increases in revenue and profits of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.</li>
<li>The company indicated that the Working Group formed under Prime Minister's Order No. 32 encompasses all national miners, not just MMCs alone. </li>
<li>Mining Law 5.4 may result in the government taking a 50% stake in the mining companies whose deposits were state-funded or increasing the mining royalty nationwide. </li>
</ul>



Mongolian Mining (975 HK) disclosed its fiscal year 2024 results, which exceeded market expectations marginally, showing YoY increases in revenue and profits of 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
The company indicated that the Working Group formed under Prime Minister's Order No. 32 encompasses all national miners, not just MMCs alone. 
Mining Law 5.4 may result in the government taking a 50% stake in the mining companies whose deposits were state-funded or increasing the mining royalty nationwide. 


Mongolia Mining 975 HK: FY24 Results and Concall, Some Clarity Provided On The Mining Issue

<ul>
<li>Following our piece, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fushan-energy-639-hk-coking-coal-prices-to-strengthen-with-anglo-accident" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150683" rel="noopener">Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident</a>, we highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> as another play with growth potential. </li>
<li>With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0221/2024022100574.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX</a>, it is net cash. </li>
<li>Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its <a href="https://erdene.com/site/assets/files/4243/erd_q3_2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia</a>. </li>
</ul>


Following our piece, Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident, we highlight Mongolian Mining (975 HK) as another play with growth potential. 
With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX, it is net cash. 
Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia. 


Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It looks like the Khan Bank IPO in Mongolia is on. </li>
<li>HS Holdings (former Sawada) will own &lt;50% shortly. That will trigger de-consolidation of Khan Bank in Q2. </li>
<li>That could be meaningful. Right now, the entire capital structure is in flux because of recently announced/booked/closed asset sales and now this. Earnings are out 28 April. </li>
</ul>


It looks like the Khan Bank IPO in Mongolia is on. 
HS Holdings (former Sawada) will own &lt;50% shortly. That will trigger de-consolidation of Khan Bank in Q2. 
That could be meaningful. Right now, the entire capital structure is in flux because of recently announced/booked/closed asset sales and now this. Earnings are out 28 April. 


HS/Sawada:  Khan Bank IPO Decided, and Earnings in A Week To Show Sharp Gain in BVPS/Liquidity

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recapping Previous PointsFor those that have not read my work on Mongolia, please refer to the insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-investors-confidence-report-3db8e037-93c8-4791-afe1-19af6d3801b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:2960">Mongolia Investors’ Confidence Report</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-updates-significant-improvements-for-one-of-asia-s-most-vulnerable-frontiers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:3866">Mongolia Updates: Significant Improvements for One of Asia’s Most Vulnerable Frontiers</a>, which both outline Mongolia's previous mining boom in 2012-2013, the crash after 2014, and the potential for a 2nd mining boom in the 2020s when Oyu Tolgoi is projected to go into production.  This mining project is projected to contribute to 1/3 of the country's…

Recapping Previous PointsFor those that have not read my work on Mongolia, please refer to the insights Mongolia Investors’ Confidence Report and Mongolia Updates: Significant Improvements for One of Asia’s Most Vulnerable Frontiers, which both outline Mongolia's previous mining boom in 2012-2013, the crash after 2014, and the potential for a 2nd mining boom in the 2020s when Oyu Tolgoi is projected to go into production.  This mining project is projected to contribute to 1/3 of the country's…

Top Mining Companies to Monitor Amid Mongolia's 2nd Economic Rise

As I have previously outlined, Mongolia is perhaps one of the most vulnerable frontier markets in Asia, as it is a strong commodity export economy, and approximately 90% of these exports go to China.  Furthermore, its economic performance has been hindered by the unpredictable actions of the government, which has been another strong factor for driving away FDI.  The current economic landscape necessitates a shift in this previous anti-FDI attitude, and notable improvements have already taken…

As I have previously outlined, Mongolia is perhaps one of the most vulnerable frontier markets in Asia, as it is a strong commodity export economy, and approximately 90% of these exports go to China.  Furthermore, its economic performance has been hindered by the unpredictable actions of the government, which has been another strong factor for driving away FDI.  The current economic landscape necessitates a shift in this previous anti-FDI attitude, and notable improvements have already taken…

Mongolia Updates: Significant Improvements for One of Asia's Most Vulnerable Frontiers

Mongolia

Erdene Resource Development Corporation explores for minerals in Canada, the United States, and Mongolia.  The Company explores for coal, copper, molybdenum, and gold.

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Erdene Resource Development (ERD CN)

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: FY24 Results and Concall, Some Clarity Provided On The Mining Issue

We summarize Mongolia Mining's results and key updates from the post-results conference call, which aimed to clarify concerns regarding the mining...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

The company has recently released its H1 FY24, which was in line with expectations as revenues/profits were up 5%/-3% YoY. The most important...

Sameer Taneja

HS/Sawada: Khan Bank IPO Decided, and Earnings in A Week To Show Sharp Gain in BVPS/Liquidity

Sawada/HS Holdings' main, and now nearly only asset - Khan Bank - has officially confirmed its plans to IPO in June. That will cause...

Travis Lundy

Top Mining Companies to Monitor Amid Mongolia's 2nd Economic Rise

Recapping Previous PointsFor those that have not read my work on Mongolia, please refer to the insights Mongolia Investors’ Confidence...

Nomadic Equity

Mongolia Updates: Significant Improvements for One of Asia's Most Vulnerable Frontiers

As I have previously outlined, Mongolia is perhaps one of the most vulnerable frontier markets in Asia, as it is a strong commodity export economy,...

Nomadic Equity

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