Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 FY26E net income of US$401M (+52% YoY) reflects realized copper at ~$5.90/lb and full-year Tucumã contribution; EBITDA margin widens to 61.5%, the highest in the company's history.</li>
<li>
Three-Mine platform + Furnas optionality: Caraíba (long-life underground Cu), Tucumã (high-margin open-pit Cu ramping to 35-40 kt), and Xavantina (ultra-high-grade Au) generate diversified cash flows, while Furnas provides optionality</li>
<li>
 ERO trades at 4.5x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E at current copper prices, a substantial discount to copper peers (7-9x). Net debt leverage will pave the way for capital returns.</li>
</ul>



 FY26E net income of US$401M (+52% YoY) reflects realized copper at ~$5.90/lb and full-year Tucumã contribution; EBITDA margin widens to 61.5%, the highest in the company's history.

Three-Mine platform + Furnas optionality: Caraíba (long-life underground Cu), Tucumã (high-margin open-pit Cu ramping to 35-40 kt), and Xavantina (ultra-high-grade Au) generate diversified cash flows, while Furnas provides optionality

 ERO trades at 4.5x FY26E EV/EBITDA and 6.9x P/E at current copper prices, a substantial discount to copper peers (7-9x). Net debt leverage will pave the way for capital returns.


Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare

<ul>
<li>Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). </li>
<li>Our recent picks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ero-copper-corp-ero-us-ero-cn-update-q2-fy26-results-cash-inflection-confirmed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:262650" rel="noopener">Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
<li>We also like bellwethers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). 
Our recent picks Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed /Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 
We also like bellwethers like Lundin Mining (LUN CN) / Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

<ul>
<li>Record 2Q26: net sales $4,289mm (+41%), EBITDA $2,856mm (+60%), net income $1,670mm (+72%), on LME copper of $6.04/lb.</li>
<li>Cash cost $0.05/lb net of by-products, net debt down to $665mm, and 2026 copper guidance nudged to 917kt despite weaker Cuajone grades.</li>
<li>2026e EPS $8.33, P/E 22.4x, EV/EBITDA 14.4x at $186.71; sensitivity spans $4.11 to $12.56 EPS on copper of $3.40 to $8.40.</li>
</ul>


Record 2Q26: net sales $4,289mm (+41%), EBITDA $2,856mm (+60%), net income $1,670mm (+72%), on LME copper of $6.04/lb.
Cash cost $0.05/lb net of by-products, net debt down to $665mm, and 2026 copper guidance nudged to 917kt despite weaker Cuajone grades.
2026e EPS $8.33, P/E 22.4x, EV/EBITDA 14.4x at $186.71; sensitivity spans $4.11 to $12.56 EPS on copper of $3.40 to $8.40.


Southern Copper (SCCO US) 2Q FY26 Results/Concall Update: >13,000 USD/Ton Copper Driving Upgrades

Brazil

ERO Copper Corp. provides base metals mining services. The Company produces and sells coppers, gold, and silver. ERO Copper serves clients in Canada and Brazil.

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ERO Copper (ERO US)

Ero Copper (ERO US): A 4.5x EV-EBITDA Pure Copper Play With Growth Is Rare

Brazil's copper champion exits a multi-year capex supercycle into an era of surging free cash flow powered by record copper prices. 4.5x EV-EBITDA...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

With copper now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, we provide a list of our top sector picks, along with updates on the market and its current drivers.

Sameer Taneja

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Southern Copper (SCCO US) 2Q FY26 Results/Concall Update: >13,000 USD/Ton Copper Driving Upgrades

By-product credits have taken cash cost to $0.05/lb and net debt to $665mm, with 1H26 EBITDA already 65% of the full-year guide, leaving the copper...

Sameer Taneja

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