Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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<ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">Trends in Consumer Sentiment across three key groups of countries is very concerning and clearly illustrate the risk that a Brexit or other blows to consumer sentiment in Europe pose to the global economy.</li></ul><ul class="ul1"><li class="li2">In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we highlight the delicate balance of the global economy going into the June 23rd (Brexit) referendum and outline our recommended asset allocation going into and coming out of the UK's decision. </li></ul>

Trends in Consumer Sentiment across three key groups of countries is very concerning and clearly illustrate the risk that a Brexit or other blows to consumer sentiment in Europe pose to the global economy.In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we highlight the delicate balance of the global economy going into the June 23rd (Brexit) referendum and outline our recommended asset allocation going into and coming out of the UK's decision. 

The Future of the Global Economy Lies in the Hands of a Small Group of Countries

Recently global equity markets have come under stress due to the high degree of uncertainty stemming from US Fed’s recent FOMC meeting, political risk in the US around Trump’s candidacy and the upcoming vote for a Brexit set to take place on June 23rd.  Inaction among four major central banks this week has highlighted the fact that major policy makers are very uncertain about the impact that a potential Brexit may have on the global economy. While the risk of Brexit seems to have faded today the markets may not have fully appreciated the risk to the global economy of a Brexit.The UK economy and consumer sentiment is tightly tied to a number of other European countries which have high consumer sentiment that has been buoying overall consumer sentiment.  Any risk to this group of exuberant countries puts global consumer sentiment at real risk of a sharp drop.

 Recently global equity markets have come under stress due to the high degree of uncertainty stemming from US Fed’s recent FOMC meeting, political risk in the US around Trump’s candidacy and the upcoming vote for a Brexit set to take place on June 23rd.  Inaction among four major central banks this week has highlighted the fact that major policy makers are very uncertain about the impact that a potential Brexit may have on the global economy. While the risk of Brexit seems to have faded today the markets may not have fully appreciated the risk to the global economy of a Brexit.The UK economy and consumer sentiment is tightly tied to a number of other European countries which have high consumer sentiment that has been buoying overall consumer sentiment.  Any risk to this group of exuberant countries puts global consumer sentiment at real risk of a sharp drop.

Global Economy Dodges a Bullet - Brexit Could Cause Global Recession

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

Amazon.com has recorded one of its best years ever. Many investors are following its success while also wondering if the future will be as bright. Jeff Bezos’s management took steps in the right direction aligning their strategies in the direction of the current. If they continue taking these steps, there is good reason to stay bullish on the company.

Amazon.com has recorded one of its best years ever. Many investors are following its success while also wondering if the future will be as bright. Jeff Bezos’s management took steps in the right direction aligning their strategies in the direction of the current. If they continue taking these steps, there is good reason to stay bullish on the company.

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">Seismic changes are affecting the consumer packaged goods industry as consumers are becoming less brand loyal and supermarkets are under attack from hard discounters and online competition.</li><li class="p1">The prolonged period of slow economic growth has conditioned consumers to be more price sensitive, and the emergence of the e-commerce channel is rapidly changing consumers' shopping behaviours.</li><li class="p2">In our opinion, the strongest antidote to these pressures is a strong brand.</li><li class="p2">In this report, we quantify the power of each company's brand by its ability to take pricing, using a number of metrics, and conclude that while brand strength varies widely across the consumer packaged goods space, beverages and tobacco generally enjoy stronger positions.</li><li class="p2">We also dive deep into cost advantages and show that while some of the large diversified CPG firms may generate economies of scope, economies of scale are more prevalent in industries with a homogeneous manufacturing process.</li></ul>Lead Analysts: Adam Fleck, CFA; Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM; R.J. Hottovy, CFA; Erin Lash, CFA; Ken Perkins, CFAFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

Seismic changes are affecting the consumer packaged goods industry as consumers are becoming less brand loyal and supermarkets are under attack from hard discounters and online competition.The prolonged period of slow economic growth has conditioned consumers to be more price sensitive, and the emergence of the e-commerce channel is rapidly changing consumers' shopping behaviours.In our opinion, the strongest antidote to these pressures is a strong brand.In this report, we quantify the power of each company's brand by its ability to take pricing, using a number of metrics, and conclude that while brand strength varies widely across the consumer packaged goods space, beverages and tobacco generally enjoy stronger positions.We also dive deep into cost advantages and show that while some of the large diversified CPG firms may generate economies of scope, economies of scale are more prevalent in industries with a homogeneous manufacturing process.Lead Analysts: Adam Fleck, CFA; Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM; R.J. Hottovy, CFA; Erin Lash, CFA; Ken Perkins, CFAFull report below the fold...&nbsp;

Morningstar Consumer Observer: Shopping for the CPG Brands Best Positioned for a New Era in Commerce

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

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Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

The Future of the Global Economy Lies in the Hands of a Small Group of Countries

Trends in Consumer Sentiment across three key groups of countries is very concerning and clearly illustrate the risk that a Brexit or other blows...

David Riedel

Global Economy Dodges a Bullet - Brexit Could Cause Global Recession

Recently global equity markets have come under stress due to the high degree of uncertainty stemming from US Fed’s recent FOMC meeting, political...

David Riedel

A to Z - Amazon's Growth Story

Amazon.com has recorded one of its best years ever. Many investors are following its success while also wondering if the future will be as bright....

Ishita Jain

Morningstar Consumer Observer: Shopping for the CPG Brands Best Positioned for a New Era in Commerce

Seismic changes are affecting the consumer packaged goods industry as consumers are becoming less brand loyal and supermarkets are under attack...

Morningstar, Inc.

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

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