European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Puig confirms talks with Estée Lauder; shares re-rate ~13%, still below implied 30% premium. Market discounts dilution risk, creating early-stage event-driven setup with residual upside dependent on deal progression.</li>
<li>Strategic rationale is clear: Estée strengthens fragrances exposure, Puig gains scale and diversification. However, structure is constrained by financing and governance, making a mixed cash-stock deal most likely outcome.</li>
<li>At ~€17.6, Puig reflects ~50% deal probability with limited arbitrage upside. Trade shifts from high-convexity optionality to probability-driven positioning; long Puig / short Estée Lauder remains preferred strategy.</li>
</ul>


Puig confirms talks with Estée Lauder; shares re-rate ~13%, still below implied 30% premium. Market discounts dilution risk, creating early-stage event-driven setup with residual upside dependent on deal progression.
Strategic rationale is clear: Estée strengthens fragrances exposure, Puig gains scale and diversification. However, structure is constrained by financing and governance, making a mixed cash-stock deal most likely outcome.
At ~€17.6, Puig reflects ~50% deal probability with limited arbitrage upside. Trade shifts from high-convexity optionality to probability-driven positioning; long Puig / short Estée Lauder remains preferred strategy.


Estée Lauder / Puig: Smelling Consolidation in Premium Beauty

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Chando Global Holding / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chando-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45909:1" rel="noopener">Chando Global Limited </a> (CG) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Chando Global is a multi brand cosmetics company in China. It was China’s third-largest domestic cosmetics group, by retail sales in 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Chando Global Limited  (CG) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Chando Global is a multi brand cosmetics company in China. It was China’s third-largest domestic cosmetics group, by retail sales in 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Aequitas: Chando Global Pre-IPO - The Negatives-  Inconsistent Growth and Margins

Chando Global Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chando-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45909:1" rel="noopener">Chando Global Limited </a>(CG) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Chando Global is a multi brand cosmetics company in China. It was China’s third-largest domestic cosmetics group, by retail sales in 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Chando Global Limited (CG) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Chando Global is a multi brand cosmetics company in China. It was China’s third-largest domestic cosmetics group, by retail sales in 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Chando Global Pre-IPO - The Positives - Well Known Brand

FineToday Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a> (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


FineToday Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finetoday-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44092:1" rel="noopener">FineToday Holdings (420A JP)</a> (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its most recent filings.</li>
</ul>



FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In our previous note, we had looked at its past performance. In this note, we will talk about the updates from its most recent filings.


United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

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Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

Estée Lauder / Puig: Smelling Consolidation in Premium Beauty

Puig rallies on confirmed talks with Estée Lauder but still trades below implied bid value. Deal logic is clear, but structure and dilution will...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aequitas: Chando Global Pre-IPO - The Negatives- Inconsistent Growth and Margins

Chando Global Limited (CG) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positve...

Sumeet Singh

Chando Global Pre-IPO - The Positives - Well Known Brand

Chando Global Limited (CG) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

FineToday Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates

FineToday Holdings (420A JP) (FT) is planning to raise around US$280m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

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