Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Monthly surveys include the following store buyers and merchants: Sunshine DFS, Galeries Lafayette Beijing, Lane Crawford HK, Vivienne Westwood, Beijing Yintai Center, Shanghai IFC Malls, Daigou merchants, regional merchant associations; ecommerce service providers</p>

Monthly surveys include the following store buyers and merchants: Sunshine DFS, Galeries Lafayette Beijing, Lane Crawford HK, Vivienne Westwood, Beijing Yintai Center, Shanghai IFC Malls, Daigou merchants, regional merchant associations; ecommerce service providers

Luxury Brand Retail Survey in China – Q2 2019 (LVMH, Kering, NKE, EL)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors </p>

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><blockquote><p><em>‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ </em></p></blockquote></div><div class="content-remarks"><p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-to-surviving-military-service-moisturizer-foam-cleanser-cucumber-face-mask-1535034194" target="_blank">WSJ article</a> on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men</p></div><blockquote>
<em>“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. </em><em>” </em>
</blockquote><div class="content-remarks"><p>Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder</p></div><div class="content-remarks">
<blockquote><p><em>‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.</em>’</p></blockquote>
<p>From a recent SCMP article</p>
</div>

‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men
“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. ” 
Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder
‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.’
From a recent SCMP article


Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Chacko Jacob

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12933" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1">Kao Corp (4452 JP)</a> is at a crossroads where it must look to alternate channels and regions to continue its growth. Unlike peers like Shiseido and Kose, the company was late in getting on e-commerce platforms and tapping travel retail. The decline in domestic revenue in FY17 served as an eye-opener for the company and culminated in changes in strategy that saw the company trim its cosmetic line and look aggressively at other Asian markets for growth. As the company continues its overhaul through…</p>
</div>


Kao Corp (4452 JP) is at a crossroads where it must look to alternate channels and regions to continue its growth. Unlike peers like Shiseido and Kose, the company was late in getting on e-commerce platforms and tapping travel retail. The decline in domestic revenue in FY17 served as an eye-opener for the company and culminated in changes in strategy that saw the company trim its cosmetic line and look aggressively at other Asian markets for growth. As the company continues its overhaul through…


Kao Corp: Takes a Gamble With Leaner Cosmetic Line & Alternative Sales Channels To Further Growth

<h2><strong>Overview</strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a> is a 145-year-old Japanese company that is estimated to be the fifth largest cosmetics company in the world. Spurred on by strong demand for its products and growing profitability margins, the company’s stock price has surged 2.3x in the last year alone. As part of its mid-term plan, Shiseido aims to grow its topline to JPY 1.2tn by 2020, or a CAGR of 7.5%.</p>
<p>Shiseido currently has a presence in 120 countries including R&amp;D bases in 7 and manufacturing plants in…</p>

Overview
Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP) is a 145-year-old Japanese company that is estimated to be the fifth largest cosmetics company in the world. Spurred on by strong demand for its products and growing profitability margins, the company’s stock price has surged 2.3x in the last year alone. As part of its mid-term plan, Shiseido aims to grow its topline to JPY 1.2tn by 2020, or a CAGR of 7.5%.
Shiseido currently has a presence in 120 countries including R&amp;D bases in 7 and manufacturing plants in…

Shiseido: Growth Strategy Focused on East Asian Travellers Liable to Backfire

United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

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Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

Luxury Brand Retail Survey in China – Q2 2019 (LVMH, Kering, NKE, EL)

Monthly surveys include the following store buyers and merchants: Sunshine DFS, Galeries Lafayette Beijing, Lane Crawford HK, Vivienne Westwood,...

JL Warren Capital

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men “Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic...

Sean Maher

Kao Corp: Takes a Gamble With Leaner Cosmetic Line & Alternative Sales Channels To Further Growth

Kao Corp (4452 JP) is at a crossroads where it must look to alternate channels and regions to continue its growth. Unlike peers like Shiseido and...

Chacko Jacob

Shiseido: Growth Strategy Focused on East Asian Travellers Liable to Backfire

Overview Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP) is a 145-year-old Japanese company that is estimated to be the fifth largest cosmetics company in the world....

Chacko Jacob

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