Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><blockquote><p><em>‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ </em></p></blockquote></div><div class="content-remarks"><p><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-to-surviving-military-service-moisturizer-foam-cleanser-cucumber-face-mask-1535034194" target="_blank">WSJ article</a> on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men</p></div><blockquote>
<em>“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. </em><em>” </em>
</blockquote><div class="content-remarks"><p>Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder</p></div><div class="content-remarks">
<blockquote><p><em>‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.</em>’</p></blockquote>
<p>From a recent SCMP article</p>
</div>

‘“I try to use a facial pack every night,” says Mr. Kim, 28 years old, who now works at an office in Seoul. “It’s been a daily routine since my time in the military.” South Korea is a force in the global beauty industry and its carefully groomed pop idols have become global stars. And for many guys here, the gateway to face serums and 10 step skin care regimens is their time as military conscripts. During his service, Mr. Kim developed a routine while posted at an observation post along the barbed wire fences of the inter-Korean demilitarized zone.’ WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men
“Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic priorities and investing in our multiple engines of growth, we delivered double-digit sales and earnings per share gains in all four quarters. In constant currency full year sales rose 13%, nearly twice the rate of global prestige beauty and diluted EPS increased 24%. What made our performance particularly strong were our over achievements in Asia and in Skin Care globally. ” 
Fabrizio Freda, CEO Estee Lauder
‘But the market and gender norms are changing, with cosmetics no longer seen as exclusively for women and male celebrities showing that it is OK for men to dab on a bit of blush. Jiang says a firm that manages bloggers pays him about 5,000 yuan (US$730) per month to feature products from cosmetics companies. Increasingly, foreign firms like La Mer and Aesop work with video bloggers such as Lan Haoyi, to promote their products to his nearly 1.4 million followers.’
From a recent SCMP article


Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion.</li><li>Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s shaving continues to decline.</li><li>Unilever led ahead of Procter &amp; Gamble with 17% and 16% value shares respectively in 2017.</li><li>Retailers pursued an everyday low pricing strategy causing downward pressure on unit prices.</li><li>Men’s grooming is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% in value terms at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.1 billion by 2022.</li></ul>

Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion.Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s shaving continues to decline.Unilever led ahead of Procter &amp; Gamble with 17% and 16% value shares respectively in 2017.Retailers pursued an everyday low pricing strategy causing downward pressure on unit prices.Men’s grooming is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% in value terms at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.1 billion by 2022.

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in the United Kingdom

<ul><li>Colour cosmetics registered 6% growth in 2017 to reach sales of GBP2.4 billion.</li><li>Despite lower disposable incomes, premiumisation characterises the category with consumers seeking experiences and a desire to buy products specific to their needs.</li><li>Value sales are stronger than volume sales as consumers invest in the right products, while prices also rise due to inflation and devaluation of the British pound.</li><li>Despite the rise and challenge of fast-growing brands, players such as L’Oréal and Estée Lauder continue to dominate, though they no longer set trends.</li><li>Colour cosmetics is set to register a CAGR of 5% in value sales at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.9 billion in 2022.</li></ul>

Colour cosmetics registered 6% growth in 2017 to reach sales of GBP2.4 billion.Despite lower disposable incomes, premiumisation characterises the category with consumers seeking experiences and a desire to buy products specific to their needs.Value sales are stronger than volume sales as consumers invest in the right products, while prices also rise due to inflation and devaluation of the British pound.Despite the rise and challenge of fast-growing brands, players such as L’Oréal and Estée Lauder continue to dominate, though they no longer set trends.Colour cosmetics is set to register a CAGR of 5% in value sales at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.9 billion in 2022.

Sector Capsule: Colour Cosmetics in the United Kingdom

<ul><li>Skin care posted healthy current value growth of 5% in 2017, to reach USD18.4 billion.</li><li>The demand for efficacious and multifunctional skin care products coincides with greater consumer interest in healthy living and wellness.</li><li>Premium skin care witnessed healthy growth in 2017, driven by face masks and premium skin care sets/kits</li><li>Investment in South Korean skin care companies was seen in 2017, following Unilever’s purchase of Carver Korea and retailers such as CVS, Target, Sephora and Ulta Beauty dedicating more shelf-space to Korean brands.</li><li>L'Oréal USA remained the leader in skin care in 2017, with a 10% value share.</li><li>Skin care is expected to post a value CAGR of 3% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach USD21.1 billion in 2022.</li></ul>

Skin care posted healthy current value growth of 5% in 2017, to reach USD18.4 billion.The demand for efficacious and multifunctional skin care products coincides with greater consumer interest in healthy living and wellness.Premium skin care witnessed healthy growth in 2017, driven by face masks and premium skin care sets/kitsInvestment in South Korean skin care companies was seen in 2017, following Unilever’s purchase of Carver Korea and retailers such as CVS, Target, Sephora and Ulta Beauty dedicating more shelf-space to Korean brands.L'Oréal USA remained the leader in skin care in 2017, with a 10% value share.Skin care is expected to post a value CAGR of 3% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach USD21.1 billion in 2022.

<ul><li>Colour cosmetics saw current value growth of 5% in 2017 to reach MYR795 million.</li><li>A rising number of halal colour cosmetics brands are seen in Malaysia, in conjunction with rising demand.</li><li>Most colour cosmetics categories saw an increase in their average unit price in 2017.</li><li>L’Oréal leads colour cosmetics with a 25% value share in 2017, thanks to the performance of brands such as Maybelline, Lancôme and L’Oréal Paris.</li><li>Colour cosmetics in Malaysia is expected to see a value CAGR of 5% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, to reach MYR996 million in 2022.</li></ul>

Colour cosmetics saw current value growth of 5% in 2017 to reach MYR795 million.A rising number of halal colour cosmetics brands are seen in Malaysia, in conjunction with rising demand.Most colour cosmetics categories saw an increase in their average unit price in 2017.L’Oréal leads colour cosmetics with a 25% value share in 2017, thanks to the performance of brands such as Maybelline, Lancôme and L’Oréal Paris.Colour cosmetics in Malaysia is expected to see a value CAGR of 5% at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period, to reach MYR996 million in 2022.

Sector Capsule: Colour Cosmetics in Malaysia

United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

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Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

Korean Men Leading Next Asian Skincare Boom

WSJ article on the elaborate skincare rituals of S. Korean men “Fiscal year 2018 was an outstanding year for our company. By focusing on strategic...

Sean Maher

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in the United Kingdom

Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion. Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Colour Cosmetics in the United Kingdom

Colour cosmetics registered 6% growth in 2017 to reach sales of GBP2.4 billion. Despite lower disposable incomes, premiumisation characterises the...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Skin Care in the US

Skin care posted healthy current value growth of 5% in 2017, to reach USD18.4 billion. The demand for efficacious and multifunctional skin care...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Colour Cosmetics in Malaysia

Colour cosmetics saw current value growth of 5% in 2017 to reach MYR795 million. A rising number of halal colour cosmetics brands are seen in...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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