Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Estee Lauder Companies Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Estée Lauder Companies recently reported its Q1 Fiscal 2025 earnings and the financial results revealed mixed dynamics, characterized by challenges and strategic initiatives aimed at overcoming them.</li><li>The company reported a 5% decrease in organic sales, primarily driven by significant declines in Mainland China, global travel retail, and Hong Kong SAR.</li><li>Conversely, when excluding these markets, sales in other global business areas saw an increment of 1%.</li></ul>

Estée Lauder Companies recently reported its Q1 Fiscal 2025 earnings and the financial results revealed mixed dynamics, characterized by challenges and strategic initiatives aimed at overcoming them.The company reported a 5% decrease in organic sales, primarily driven by significant declines in Mainland China, global travel retail, and Hong Kong SAR.Conversely, when excluding these markets, sales in other global business areas saw an increment of 1%.

The Estee Lauder Companies: Will Its Focus on Brand Building & Market Share Expansion Be A Breakthrough Move? - Major Drivers

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s tropical island province of Hainan is to hand out 24 million yuan ($3.4 million) in spending vouchers to encourage tourists to splash out and reverse falling retail sales in the duty-free haven.</li><li>The provincial government said it will distribute the vouchers, including 9 million yuan to buy airline tickets and 15 million yuan for tax-free shopping, between late August and October.</li><li>The initial batch of flight ticket vouchers will apply to Hainan Airlines’ services, but other carriers can request to join the program, the government said.</li></ul>

China’s tropical island province of Hainan is to hand out 24 million yuan ($3.4 million) in spending vouchers to encourage tourists to splash out and reverse falling retail sales in the duty-free haven.The provincial government said it will distribute the vouchers, including 9 million yuan to buy airline tickets and 15 million yuan for tax-free shopping, between late August and October.The initial batch of flight ticket vouchers will apply to Hainan Airlines’ services, but other carriers can request to join the program, the government said.

China’s Duty-Free Haven Hands Out $3.4 Million Vouchers to Spur Spending 

<ul><li>Estée Lauder Companies' fiscal 2024 results reflect a challenging environment particularly impacted by market conditions in China and the Asia-Pacific region.</li><li>The fiscal year witnessed a 2% contraction in organic sales, with a modest gross margin expansion and a decline in adjusted operating margin by 120 basis points to 10.2%.</li><li>The company's performance in various regions displayed disparity, with noted declines in Mainland China contrasted by growth in EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) primarily due to a recovery in Asia travel retail.</li></ul>

Estée Lauder Companies' fiscal 2024 results reflect a challenging environment particularly impacted by market conditions in China and the Asia-Pacific region.The fiscal year witnessed a 2% contraction in organic sales, with a modest gross margin expansion and a decline in adjusted operating margin by 120 basis points to 10.2%.The company's performance in various regions displayed disparity, with noted declines in Mainland China contrasted by growth in EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) primarily due to a recovery in Asia travel retail.

Estée Lauder Companies: A Tale Strategic Pricing & Precision Marketing! - Major Drivers

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Oddity Tech, owner of famous global brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, is growing slower than in 2022 and 2023. The overall growth will slow down to ~20% y/y in 2025.</li>
<li>According to my estimates and SEC filings, private equity firm L Catterton, the largest shareholder, reduced its stake in Oddity Tech to 18.4%, down from ~42% prior to an IPO.</li>
<li>I see ~34% downside risk in Oddity Tech stock as growth will slow down and the company will launch new brands only in the second half of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Oddity Tech, owner of famous global brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, is growing slower than in 2022 and 2023. The overall growth will slow down to ~20% y/y in 2025.
According to my estimates and SEC filings, private equity firm L Catterton, the largest shareholder, reduced its stake in Oddity Tech to 18.4%, down from ~42% prior to an IPO.
I see ~34% downside risk in Oddity Tech stock as growth will slow down and the company will launch new brands only in the second half of 2025.


Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target, but reducing our projections after Starco Brands posted a lower than expected 2Q24 and did not provide 2024 guidance, as management continues to pivot to multiple new and expanded retailer relationships for virtually all their brands, including the addition of Costco as a key new partner.</li><li>We believe, beginning in 3Q24, Starco will take their stable of brands to a new level in terms of door penetration which, when combined with an aggressive focus on adding new categories, will position the company for strong top line and Adjusted EBITDA expansion for 2025 and beyond.</li><li>As such, we continue to view the future of Starco as strong, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $0.25 price target for STCB.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target, but reducing our projections after Starco Brands posted a lower than expected 2Q24 and did not provide 2024 guidance, as management continues to pivot to multiple new and expanded retailer relationships for virtually all their brands, including the addition of Costco as a key new partner.We believe, beginning in 3Q24, Starco will take their stable of brands to a new level in terms of door penetration which, when combined with an aggressive focus on adding new categories, will position the company for strong top line and Adjusted EBITDA expansion for 2025 and beyond.As such, we continue to view the future of Starco as strong, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $0.25 price target for STCB.

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 2Q Review: Adding Costco, Planning for the Future, Reiterate Buy

United States

The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures and markets a wide range of skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products.  The Company's products are sold in countries and territories around the world.

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Estee Lauder Companies Cl A (EL US)

China’s Duty-Free Haven Hands Out $3.4 Million Vouchers to Spur Spending

China’s tropical island province of Hainan is to hand out 24 million yuan ($3.4 million) in spending vouchers to encourage tourists to splash out...

Caixin Global

Estée Lauder Companies: A Tale Strategic Pricing & Precision Marketing! - Major Drivers

Estée Lauder Companies' fiscal 2024 results reflect a challenging environment particularly impacted by market conditions in China and the...

Baptista Research

Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down

I see ~34% downside risk in Oddity Tech stock, reflecting lower peer multiples, heavy insider selling and continued slowdown in the beauty industry

Andrei Zakharov

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 2Q Review: Adding Costco, Planning for the Future, Reiterate Buy

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target, but reducing our projections after Starco Brands posted a lower than expected 2Q24 and...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Estee Lauder Companies: Will Its Focus on Brand Building & Market Share Expansion Be A Breakthrough Move? - Major Drivers

Estée Lauder Companies recently reported its Q1 Fiscal 2025 earnings and the financial results revealed mixed dynamics, characterized by...

Baptista Research

China’s Duty-Free Haven Hands Out $3.4 Million Vouchers to Spur Spending

China’s tropical island province of Hainan is to hand out 24 million yuan ($3.4 million) in spending vouchers to encourage tourists to splash out...

Caixin Global

Estée Lauder Companies: A Tale Strategic Pricing & Precision Marketing! - Major Drivers

Estée Lauder Companies' fiscal 2024 results reflect a challenging environment particularly impacted by market conditions in China and the...

Baptista Research

Oddity Tech: ~34% Downside Risk As Growth Will Slow Down

I see ~34% downside risk in Oddity Tech stock, reflecting lower peer multiples, heavy insider selling and continued slowdown in the beauty industry

Andrei Zakharov

elf Beauty Inc - STCB: 2Q Review: Adding Costco, Planning for the Future, Reiterate Buy

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $0.25 price target, but reducing our projections after Starco Brands posted a lower than expected 2Q24 and...

Small Cap Consumer Research