Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<p>Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe that the path of least resistance remains higher. In this report we outline our bullish case and highlight actionable opportunities across all 12 sectors.</p>

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe that the path of least resistance remains higher. In this report we outline our bullish case and highlight actionable opportunities across all 12 sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

<p>Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.</p>

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight developments that are inconsistent with a major bottom in equities that suggests the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods.  In fact, during today's action, the 2760 support level on the S&amp;P 500 briefly held but ultimately gave way. With the SPX holding below 2760 today, we are looking for downside targets of 2650 first, and then potentially 2470 if that fails to hold.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Etsy, Inc.'s recent earnings presentation provided a comprehensive overview of their second quarter 2025 financial and operational performance.</li><li>The results were underpinned by strategic shifts and growth initiatives that have begun to take root, though the overarching narrative was one of balanced progress amid challenging market conditions.</li><li>Financially, Etsy surpassed revenue expectations with consolidated revenue increasing by approximately 4% year-over-year to $673 million, despite a decline in gross merchandise sales (GMS) by 4.8% on a reported basis.</li></ul>

Etsy, Inc.'s recent earnings presentation provided a comprehensive overview of their second quarter 2025 financial and operational performance.The results were underpinned by strategic shifts and growth initiatives that have begun to take root, though the overarching narrative was one of balanced progress amid challenging market conditions.Financially, Etsy surpassed revenue expectations with consolidated revenue increasing by approximately 4% year-over-year to $673 million, despite a decline in gross merchandise sales (GMS) by 4.8% on a reported basis.

Etsy Bets Big on Depop—Hidden Gem Could Spark the Next Resale Revolution!

<ul><li>Etsy's first quarter of 2025 results reflect a mixed performance amidst ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions.</li><li>The results were generally in line with market expectations, with some areas performing slightly better, such as the take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin.</li><li>The financial summary illustrates a company that, although facing a decrease in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) by about 6.5% year-over-year, managed to increase consolidated revenue by 1% to $651 million, despite a challenging economic backdrop.</li></ul>

Etsy's first quarter of 2025 results reflect a mixed performance amidst ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions.The results were generally in line with market expectations, with some areas performing slightly better, such as the take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin.The financial summary illustrates a company that, although facing a decrease in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) by about 6.5% year-over-year, managed to increase consolidated revenue by 1% to $651 million, despite a challenging economic backdrop.

Etsy Inc.: An Enhanced Paid Social & Martech Investments & Other Key Growth Levers!

<ul><li>Etsy Inc.'s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results underscore challenges as well as initiatives aimed at recalibrating for future growth.</li><li>The company's consolidated Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) saw a decline of 4% year-over-year to $12.6 billion, indicating a tougher operating environment and competitive pressures.</li><li>Despite this, Etsy managed to achieve record revenue of $2.8 billion, up by about 2% from the previous year, highlighting its ability to expand the take rate while maintaining a focus on profitability with an adjusted EBITDA of $782 million, translating into margins of 27.8%.</li></ul>

Etsy Inc.'s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results underscore challenges as well as initiatives aimed at recalibrating for future growth.The company's consolidated Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) saw a decline of 4% year-over-year to $12.6 billion, indicating a tougher operating environment and competitive pressures.Despite this, Etsy managed to achieve record revenue of $2.8 billion, up by about 2% from the previous year, highlighting its ability to expand the take rate while maintaining a focus on profitability with an adjusted EBITDA of $782 million, translating into margins of 27.8%.

Etsy’s Marketing Masterplan: Unlocking Maximum ROI for Explosive Growth!

United States

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

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Etsy Inc (ETSY US)

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

Etsy Bets Big on Depop—Hidden Gem Could Spark the Next Resale Revolution!

Etsy, Inc.'s recent earnings presentation provided a comprehensive overview of their second quarter 2025 financial and operational...

Baptista Research

Etsy’s Marketing Masterplan: Unlocking Maximum ROI for Explosive Growth!

Etsy Inc.'s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results underscore challenges as well as initiatives aimed at recalibrating for future growth. The...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

U.S. Equity Strategy - Bullish Outlook Intact

Considering the absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, along with the Fed covering investors’ backs, we continue...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Several Indicators Suggest a Pullback Likely

Despite the bulls still being in control, we have several ongoing concerns and we cannot rule out the potential for a pullback. Below we highlight...

Vermilion Research

Etsy Bets Big on Depop—Hidden Gem Could Spark the Next Resale Revolution!

Etsy, Inc.'s recent earnings presentation provided a comprehensive overview of their second quarter 2025 financial and operational...

Baptista Research

Etsy Inc.: An Enhanced Paid Social & Martech Investments & Other Key Growth Levers!

Etsy's first quarter of 2025 results reflect a mixed performance amidst ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions. The results were generally...

Baptista Research

Etsy’s Marketing Masterplan: Unlocking Maximum ROI for Explosive Growth!

Etsy Inc.'s fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results underscore challenges as well as initiatives aimed at recalibrating for future growth. The...

Baptista Research